Failed banks are lining up a christmas bonanza for their incompetent staff. The RBS has set aside billions of taxpayers money to pay bonusus. Other state owned banks will likely do the same.
This really is as bad as it looks. These banks are, for all practical purposes, insolvent. The government has injected billions of pounds, and this money is about to disappear as cash payments to staff.
Can the management of our bankrupt banks really be that stupid? Do they have any idea of the anger they will provoke if they go ahead and pay bonuses this year?
Friday, October 31, 2008
East Bay BRT video
Very cool video presentation. Can't wait.
If you want to see this project come to life, vote No on KK in Berkeley on November 4.
If you want to see this project come to life, vote No on KK in Berkeley on November 4.
East Bay BRT video
Very cool video presentation. Can't wait.
If you want to see this project come to life, vote No on KK in Berkeley on November 4.
If you want to see this project come to life, vote No on KK in Berkeley on November 4.
Auto Dealers Ask for Handout from U.S. Taxpayers
Auto dealers are calling on President Bush and Congress to take emergency measures to help revive vehicle retailing and contribute to the nation’s economic recovery. The request came this week in a hand-delivered letter to ... the White House.
How much do the people who made millions selling planet-killing SUVs and Hummers deserve in corporate welfare from the American People?
In Spanish, the word is...NADA (National Automobile Dealers Association)
Auto Dealers Ask for Handout from U.S. Taxpayers
Auto dealers are calling on President Bush and Congress to take emergency measures to help revive vehicle retailing and contribute to the nation’s economic recovery. The request came this week in a hand-delivered letter to ... the White House.
How much do the people who made millions selling planet-killing SUVs and Hummers deserve in corporate welfare from the American People?
In Spanish, the word is...NADA (National Automobile Dealers Association)
More powerful APIs now available for managing Google Apps
Organizations using Google Apps can take advantage of our APIs to make Google Apps fit their unique businesses processes and technology environments. Customers have pulled off some useful customizations, like synchronizing Google Calendar with Microsoft Exchange and updating email preferences for all of their users. Today we're making our Google Apps APIs even more powerful.
First, we're improving the API for Google Docs, which is now capable of updating the actual content of documents, sharing documents, and moving documents into and out of folders programmatically. You can learn more about this API here.
We're also making our APIs even more versatile. Domain administrators can now use OAuth authentication to access GData feeds for users on their domains. This lets admins do things like integrate with document management systems, enable third-party workflow applications, centralize backup of documents and contacts, and monitor document sharing inside and outside of the company. Using OAuth, administrators can enable this type of functionality for end-users without any end-user involvement. Premier and Education Edition admins can enable OAuth in the 'Authentication' section of the 'Advanced tools' tab of the Google Apps administrative control panel.
Training in Hungary
Last week Boris, Sandra, and Kat went to Hungary for several days to train and race in relevant terrain for WOC 2009. It sounds like a great time, and here's a bit of what Kat had to say about it:
"This was the most organized training camp I have ever been to and it was extremely helpful in terms of preparing us for WOC. Thanks to the US Team for supporting us!!
Over the course of five days, we did two middle distance trainings, one sprint training, one route choice training, two long-distance races, and one middle-distance race. The trainings included controls, SI units, and even start times for some of them! As I said before, it was incredibly organized.
Boris has taken pictures of maps from training and racing, as well as two photos of the white forest. You can find them here.
You can also look at some other training maps and old maps of the WOC competition area on the WOC 2009 website.
My overall impression is that WOC in Hungary is going to be both very fun and very tough. It is obvious from the maps that strength on hills is necessary, but I think a lot of people (me included) underestimated the technical difficulty. The steepness, negative terrain, point features, and green all take some getting used to. And it is difficult for everyone! When I made my 10-minute mistake on Saturday, I saw three other women (from Finland, Denmark, and Sweden) also out searching for the control. I think this just goes to show that orienteering in Hungary is not trivial. That said, it seems to be the type of terrain that can be mastered given enough practice. I expect that by the time WOC comes around, everyone who has trained for it will be prepared!"
The World Environmental Performance Index
How does your country stack up?
Switzerland is #1 with a rating of 95.5
Costa Rica gets 90.5
Ireland gets an 82.7
The USA falls far behind at 81.0
EPI is a project of Yale and Columbia Universities
Switzerland is #1 with a rating of 95.5
Costa Rica gets 90.5
Ireland gets an 82.7
The USA falls far behind at 81.0
EPI is a project of Yale and Columbia Universities
The World Environmental Performance Index
How does your country stack up?
Switzerland is #1 with a rating of 95.5
Costa Rica gets 90.5
Ireland gets an 82.7
The USA falls far behind at 81.0
EPI is a project of Yale and Columbia Universities
Switzerland is #1 with a rating of 95.5
Costa Rica gets 90.5
Ireland gets an 82.7
The USA falls far behind at 81.0
EPI is a project of Yale and Columbia Universities
Colin G. Kruse on the Offender and the Offence in 2 Corinthians 2:5 and 7:12
The following article is now available on-line in PDF:
Colin G. Kruse, "The Offender and the Offence in 2 Corinthians 2:5 and 7:12," The Evangelical Quarterly 60.2 (Apr.-June 1988): 129-139.
Colin Kruse summarises his article thus:
Colin G. Kruse, "The Offender and the Offence in 2 Corinthians 2:5 and 7:12," The Evangelical Quarterly 60.2 (Apr.-June 1988): 129-139.
Colin Kruse summarises his article thus:
The argument of this article has been that the offender mentioned in 2 Corinthians 2:5 and 7:12 is best identified with the incestuous person mentioned in 1 Corinthians 5, provided that the offence involved is seen to have been a personal attack against Paul and his apostolic authority on the occasion of the latter’s interim visit to Corinth. It has been assumed that the disciplinary action taken by the church in response to Paul’s demands in the ‘severe’ letter succeeded in bringing the offender to repentance.
While the objections that have been raised against this identification can be dealt with satisfactorily, it must be admitted that the arguments presented in this article fall short of positive proof. However, the suggested identification is plausible and does enable us to make good sense of 2 Corinthians as a whole.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Gerald Bray on Scripture and Tradition in Reformation Thought
The following article is available on-line in PDF:
Gerald Bray examines the views of church tradition held by several of the Reformers - a very helpful study. My thanks to Professor Bray for his kind permission to place this article on-line.
SLAs for Google Calendar, Docs, Sites and Talk
We've got more good news for Google Apps users. Today we're pleased to announce that we're extending the 99.9 percent service level agreements we offer Premier Edition customers on Gmail to Google Calendar, Google Docs, Google Sites and Google Talk. Check out the Google Blog to read more about the announcement and how the reliability of Gmail compares to on-premises alternatives.
The UK - a one industry economy
If finance services were bananas, then the UK would look a lot like Honduras.
During a recent speech, Mr Darling revealed the extent of our dependence on the financial sector.
"The credit crunch affects the tax take from the financial sector, which over recent years has been generating about 25 per cent of our corporation tax revenue"
This overdependence on financial services will magnify the economic fall out from the credit crunch. Just wait until the employment shake out from our bloated banks begins. The benefit offices will be full of unwanted loan officers and bank tellers.
During a recent speech, Mr Darling revealed the extent of our dependence on the financial sector.
"The credit crunch affects the tax take from the financial sector, which over recent years has been generating about 25 per cent of our corporation tax revenue"
This overdependence on financial services will magnify the economic fall out from the credit crunch. Just wait until the employment shake out from our bloated banks begins. The benefit offices will be full of unwanted loan officers and bank tellers.
Liquidity conditions - the great falling off
The Bank of England produce a very nice aggregate measure of liquidity conditions. It is a simple unweighted average of nine liquidity measures, taken from such varied sources as Bloomberg, Chicago Board Options Exchange, the Debt Management Office, London Stock Exchange, Merrill Lynch, Thomson Datastream and the Bank of England itself.The story from the index is plain enough. From 2002 onwards, liquidity became abundant, and this led to a surge in asset prices that is now so cruelly unwinding.
Then came the great falling off after the summer of 2007. However, until the Lehman bankruptcy the extent of liquidity tightening was broadly comparable to the dot.com crash. After Lehman, conditions deteriorated dramatically, and despite the enormous efforts of central banks, things haven't yet begun to improve.
Just for the record, the last datapoint for this series is October 17.
Of religion, culture and intolerance
We are indebted to Philip Mendes and Bennett Muraskin for writing on the complex facts behind the virtually total exodus of Jews from Arab lands in the wake of Israel’s birth. A key to understanding this phenomenon is recognizing its complexity.
Recently, I saw Bill Maher’s bitingly satirical documentary “Religulous.” The flaw in this otherwise entertaining and illuminating film is his uncompromising conclusion: that religion is inherently bigoted and violence-prone and that even moderately religious people are “enablers” for the extremists.
In a related vein, some people whom I’ve dialoged and debated with online have characterized as “racist,” my view that the Arab and Muslim worlds have a huge problem with violence and intolerance. They are NOT inherently this way – that would be a bigoted assertion.
One has to ask if many majority Arab countries and areas (e.g., Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, the Gaza Strip, Sudan/Darfur) and non-Arab Muslim countries (e.g., Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey) are not plagued by inter-communal violence and intolerance. If they are not, then my point could be categorized as prejudiced or at least mistaken.
My observation is based upon my reading of the facts that indicate social pathology, but it is not intended to denigrate anybody for their ethnicity or religion. I mean to highlight the desperate need for progressive change in these places. And obviously this does not exempt Israel and predominantly Christian societies from the need for more tolerance and enlightenment. This blog regularly reports upon Israel’s shortcomings and abuses; we are equal opportunity critics.
Recently, I saw Bill Maher’s bitingly satirical documentary “Religulous.” The flaw in this otherwise entertaining and illuminating film is his uncompromising conclusion: that religion is inherently bigoted and violence-prone and that even moderately religious people are “enablers” for the extremists.
In a related vein, some people whom I’ve dialoged and debated with online have characterized as “racist,” my view that the Arab and Muslim worlds have a huge problem with violence and intolerance. They are NOT inherently this way – that would be a bigoted assertion.
One has to ask if many majority Arab countries and areas (e.g., Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, the Gaza Strip, Sudan/Darfur) and non-Arab Muslim countries (e.g., Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey) are not plagued by inter-communal violence and intolerance. If they are not, then my point could be categorized as prejudiced or at least mistaken.
My observation is based upon my reading of the facts that indicate social pathology, but it is not intended to denigrate anybody for their ethnicity or religion. I mean to highlight the desperate need for progressive change in these places. And obviously this does not exempt Israel and predominantly Christian societies from the need for more tolerance and enlightenment. This blog regularly reports upon Israel’s shortcomings and abuses; we are equal opportunity critics.
BEER AND… PEACHES?
Yep, it’s official! The Yuengling Brewery is pleased to announce that we have opened up the Georgia market this week. Here is the press release, which you can also view on our website at http://www.yuengling.com/n_rolls_into_georgia.htm:
Check out this site created by Shawn Keith http://www.bringyuenglingtogeorgia.com/. (He and fellow Yuengling fan, Jeff Quimby, are pictured below at a kick-off event.) This just shows the excitement for our brands, even in a market where you couldn’t buy Yuengling. We’re very humbled by the dedication of all the loyal Yuengling drinkers out there. Thank you for your continued support of America’s Oldest Brewery.
I was wrong
Last October, I predicted that UK house prices would fall 9 percent in the coming year. According to the Nationwide, house prices fell by 14.6 percent. The housing crash has surpassed even my dismal predictions.
Average house prices are down ₤30,000 relative to the peak back in October 2007. However, the Nationwide wanted to put this number "into perspective". They boasted that prices were still ₤30,000 higher than five years ago. Well, if the present rate of decline is sustained over the next 12 months, prices should easily wipe out that five year gain.
Just for the record, house prices have fallen back to their February 2006 level. All those bubble profits are evaporating; so many broken dreams, so many crushed illusions.
Resolution Without Resolution
One of the more interesting aspects of Google's recent settlement of a lawsuit by book authors alleging vast copyright infringement (see coverage of the settlement in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times) was the absolute refusal by Google to publicly acknowledge the settlement resolved any of the key copyright issues at stake.
It is common, of course, for parties in a settlement to refuse to admit liability, but Google really seems to have taken it up a notch. Consider the following quote from the New York Times, relaying Google's position on the issue at the heart of the dispute:
At another level, I think the settlement is an example of the slow chipping away at Google's hegemony. Like Microsoft a decade before them, Google seemed to have assumed an air of superiority when it comes to legal issues – as if they were, if not above the law, then perhaps too smart to be bound by its rather antiquated concepts. Copyright is a prime example, but look also at privacy issues, censorship in China, and all of the other high-profile legal debates Google has found itself at the center of these days.
Eventually, I think, the law catches up with even the most arrogant… if there are opposing parties willing to go the distance. With that in mind, pay close attention to Google’s continuing case with Viacom over the posting of videos on the YouTube website. Note this comment by Michael Fricklas of Viacom, again from the Times post:
It is common, of course, for parties in a settlement to refuse to admit liability, but Google really seems to have taken it up a notch. Consider the following quote from the New York Times, relaying Google's position on the issue at the heart of the dispute:
“There is no acknowledgment that we had to have permissions to scan or show snippets,” David Drummond, Google’s chief legal officer, said in an interview.They settled, Google says, solely for business reasons. Few believe it, and I personally think it rings kind of hollow, given the concessions in the settlement. Which goes to show you, even in the age of spin, you have to ground your message in some sort of reality for it to stick. Or, put another way, you bend the truth too much, it breaks.
At another level, I think the settlement is an example of the slow chipping away at Google's hegemony. Like Microsoft a decade before them, Google seemed to have assumed an air of superiority when it comes to legal issues – as if they were, if not above the law, then perhaps too smart to be bound by its rather antiquated concepts. Copyright is a prime example, but look also at privacy issues, censorship in China, and all of the other high-profile legal debates Google has found itself at the center of these days.
Eventually, I think, the law catches up with even the most arrogant… if there are opposing parties willing to go the distance. With that in mind, pay close attention to Google’s continuing case with Viacom over the posting of videos on the YouTube website. Note this comment by Michael Fricklas of Viacom, again from the Times post:
“The publisher agreement is, at last, acceptance of what’s obvious to everyone but Google,” said Michael Fricklas, general counsel of Viacom. “Copying and distributing copyrighted works requires permission from the copyright owner."If Viacom is indeed willing to press on with its claims – making a disciplined, compelling case both in the court of law and in the court of public opinion – you’ll begin to see further weakening in Google’s position. And like Microsoft before them, they’ll begin to realize that you may think you're smarter than the law, but you still have to obey it.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
So farewell, leveraged buy out loans
It wasn't just the housing market where banks were injecting silly amounts of money without fully understanding the risks. The leveraged buyout business was another favourite for reckless bankers.The idea of a leveraged buyout is straightforward. A speculator raises huge money, either by issuing junk bonds or taking out loans, and then uses the money to take over a controlling interest in a target company. The speculator doesn't actually put up much of her own money -hence the title leveraged. Therefore, the speculator needs a ready source of credit. Until the credit crunch rolled into town, banks have been all too ready to provide money for these highly risky projects.
The leveraged buyout business has a long and grim history of financial failures. Towards the end of the 1980s, many buyouts proved to be highly unprofitable, leading to a number of horrific bankruptcies.
The chart above illustrates the explosive growth of leveraged buyout loans. In order to make the years comparable, the half yearly amounts have been inflation adjusted. The business peaked during the first half of 2007, and it has been sliding ever since. The stock of new loans during the first half of 2008 has fallen back to the level of 2004. It is likely that the market will have totally evaporated by the end of this year.
Leveraged buyout loans raises an old issue - bank supervision. Why did regulators allow banks to get involved in such a dangerous business?
The UK customer funding gap - ₤737 billion
In a properly functioning financial system, banks are supposed to work like dating agencies, bringing savers and investors together. Over the last decade or so, UK banks have been doing much more than matchmaking.The chart above illustrates the extent to which banks have departed from its traditional role of intermediating between savers and investors. The customer funding gap is the difference between household loans and household deposits. Back in the early part of this decade, loans and deposits were broadly equal. Since then, the amount of household loans rapidly outstripped household deposits. By the middle of this year, the difference was about ₤737 billion, which is about 50 percent of GDP.
How did banks bridge this gap? They went to the wholesale money markets. They issued dodgy asset backed securities, with much of this funding coming from overseas.
This non-deposit bank financing has now all but dried up, which goes a long way to explaining why mortgage approvals have collapsed. It also partly explains why sterling has declined so dramatically. Foreigners are pulling their money out and as they do, sterling slides south.
Going forward, the UK customer funding gap is very likely to narrow and as it does, it will take house prices down with it. It will also lead to a sharp decline in household consumption and ultimately push the economy into a recession.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Google Apps Goes Experimental with Google Labs
There is a widely held belief that technology progress in the enterprise is slow and methodical, that adoption cycles are long, and that experimentation is inappropriate. Here at Google we believe that experimentation is a good thing - even in the enterprise space. Some of our best ideas have emerged from experiments, products like Google Maps and snazzy new Gmail Labs features like Calendar and Docs gadgets, as well as Google Suggest and the collection of enterprise search labs.
Today we're extending that innovation and announcing Labs for Google Apps, a set of experimental features available free to businesses and schools using Google Apps. The first set, available now, are derived from tools Google uses internally and can be installed easily from the Google Solutions Marketplace by Google Apps domain administrators. Once installed (see walkthrough), users on your domain will be able to log in and access these features alongside existing applications like Gmail and Sites, and your domain administrators can configure them using the standard Google Apps control panel.
The new experimental features are:
- Google Moderator: Take Q&A to a whole new level -- manage feedback from the smallest video conference to the largest all-hands company meeting. Learn more
- Google Code Reviews: Collaborate with others to catch bugs in software changes before you check them in. Learn more
- Google Short Links: Create easy-to-remember links for both your internal and external web pages Learn more
These new Google Labs tools are built on Google App Engine, the same scalable, efficient, and reliable infrastructure publicly available to developers. Read more about Labs features and App Engine. We're also planning on opening up the Labs for Google Apps platform to third party developers, so that new and existing vendors can build apps for the million-plus businesses using Google Apps today. Going forward, we'll also be adding more of our own Labs applications for your teams to experiment with and benefit from.
Check out the new features and let us know what you think!
Here come the lawsuits
A fascinating column by Dennis K. Berman in The Wall Street Journal this morning (here) highlights just how quaint the Enron-driven financial crisis of the early part of this decade appears in the wake of the current market tsunami. Berman really drives home the story by landing quotes like this:
But will the legal battles really be as fierce as those surrounding the Enron/tech bubble battles? I have no doubt, but some wonder is the true liability is really out there (see, for example, this Bloomberg article from earlier this week). Also consider another key quote from the Berman column in the Journal:
Thus, in the midst of economic turmoil, a pretty good time to be a lawyer working on white collar criminal, regulatory, restructuring or bankruptcy work.
And, perhaps, not a bad time to be a litigation communications consultant either. I'll let ya know.
"Enron was a gnat compared to what's going on," said Sidney Powell, a Texas attorney for former Merrill Lynch & Co. employees.Too true. And it's no coincidence that the above commentary comes from an attorney representing Merrill employees caught in post-Enron legal quagmire. Remember, next to images of Enron and Arthur Anderson employees being thrown out on the street, the defining characteristic of this earlier era was the resulting litigation. Thus, expect a tidal wave of legal and regulatory activity in the wake of the financial meltdown over the past several weeks... all played out (and played to the hilt) on CNN and CNBC, in the pages of Newsweek, and BusinessWeek and People. Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG and Countrywide? I suspect Enron and Worldcom and Martha Stewart are going to seem tame by comparison.
But will the legal battles really be as fierce as those surrounding the Enron/tech bubble battles? I have no doubt, but some wonder is the true liability is really out there (see, for example, this Bloomberg article from earlier this week). Also consider another key quote from the Berman column in the Journal:
"These are necessarily going to be very close cases," said University of Illinois law professor Larry Ribstein, a critic of some Enron prosecutions. Should Mr. Fuld "err on the side of panic, or state the risk pessimistically, he's got a full-scale bank run. If he gets optimistic, it's bordering on fraud."Again, very true -- but I'm of the belief that the Captain Renaults out there are going to be looking to "round up the usual suspects," particularly if Democrats take control of the White House, Congress, the SEC and U.S. Attorneys offices across the land. Passion will take the place of legal nuance as courts across the country are flooded with prosecutions, regulatory actions and private lawsuits.
Thus, in the midst of economic turmoil, a pretty good time to be a lawyer working on white collar criminal, regulatory, restructuring or bankruptcy work.
And, perhaps, not a bad time to be a litigation communications consultant either. I'll let ya know.
UK banks grow by 200 percent in 6 1/2 years
Between December 2001 and June 2008, UK bank assets increased by 310 percent. It might seem an obvious point but as banks increase the stock of loans, the quality of those loans has to decrease. When banks grow at this shocking rate, it is inevitable that the proportion of bad loans will also increase at a similar rate.
With a 300 percent growth rate, it should be no surprise that a banking crisis quickly follows. The real question is why didn't someone stop the banks. Isn't that what the Financial Services Authority were supposed to do?
There needs to be some kind of public inquiry into this banking crisis. We need to learn the lessons, and we need to hold our institutions accountable. The government can't simply pour in billions of pounds of taxpayers money into the banking system without investigating the reasons for this mess.
Household debt reaches monstrous levels
Why are Brown and Darling so desperate to revive bank lending to households? A quick look at the outstanding stock of household lending quickly reveals the reason.Bank lending to households now stands at about 88 percent of GDP. Thirty years ago, it was only 20 percent of GDP.
The UK economy has become addicted to debt. This huge surge in credit has kept up the illusion of growing standards of living. It has kept us consuming, while UK real wages have remained stagnant.
We have reached an impasse. Bank credit can not grow any larger. Household balance sheets are in deep trouble. Debt servicing costs are eating into disposible income and as the economy slides into recession, default rates are about to rise.
Brown and Darling are desperate for banks to turn on the flow of credit. However, if the banks were to buckle under the pressure from the government and begin a new surge in credit growth, household debt would rise further. This would only generate an even greater finanical crisis in the future.
DISCOVER OUR DARK SIDE
Fall brings a cool, crisp air to Pennsylvania. The foliage transforms into a backdrop of rich hues. At Yuengling, we embrace the waning daylight hours. This is the season where we enjoy a Black & Tan to take the chill out of an evening.Yuengling Original Black & Tan is a combination of our Dark Brewed Porter and Premium Beer (60% Porter/40% Premium blend). It is rich and dark in color, with a well balanced flavor that finishes smooth and satisfying. B&T has a faint sweetness with hints of caramel and coffee from the dark roasted malts. We invite you to celebrate Halloween with Original Black & Tan and... discover our dark side.
US$2.8 trillion - the losses so far
"Total mark-to-market losses across the three currency areas (Dollar, Sterling, and Euro) have risen to around US$2.8 trillion. This is equivalent to around 85% of banks’ pre-crisis Tier 1 capital globally of US$3.4 trillion, though only some of these market value losses are directly borne by banks."
Bank of England Financial Stability report 2008
It is a fearful number - US$2.8 trillion. It is approximately the annual GDP of the UK. However, the fact that this number also represents 86 percent of the bank's tier one capital is even more astonishing.
Of course, the banks will not be alone when it comes to absorbing these losses. Other institutions, such pension funds and private investors - are also holding distressed mortgage backed securities.
However, it was the banks who cooked up these losses through ill-conceived financial engineering.
Bank of England Financial Stability report 2008
It is a fearful number - US$2.8 trillion. It is approximately the annual GDP of the UK. However, the fact that this number also represents 86 percent of the bank's tier one capital is even more astonishing.
Of course, the banks will not be alone when it comes to absorbing these losses. Other institutions, such pension funds and private investors - are also holding distressed mortgage backed securities.
However, it was the banks who cooked up these losses through ill-conceived financial engineering.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Israeli elections loom, but what of reform?
According to the JTA news service, a victory for Bibi Netanyahu and the Likud-rightist bloc is far from certain as elections loom for early next year:
But according to Tel Aviv University economics professor Dan Ben-David, Israel's long term prospects look dire absent fundamental electoral reform:
... For quite a while, it has not been possible to govern in the Holy Land.
The problem is not only that the head of the country's executive arm is ... not given the authority to build a cabinet with ministers who know something about the realm of their ministries and who also work for him/her. The problem is not only that Knesset members are not elected personally by voters. ... The problem is not only the absence of fixed terms of office in the executive and legislative branches. ...
In Israel's current system of government, measures taken to survive politically in the present have a way of determining future reality. For example, it was not possible to remove Israeli citizens from Gaza without paying the political ransom of removing the ultra-Orthodox education stream from the system-wide educational reform that was approved at the time....
... They demand an increase in personal subsidies for each child - which have been shown to encourage extremely high birth rates - that are, in turn, translated into incomes that enable the choice of non-work as a way of life.
Three-quarters of ultra-Orthodox males and Israeli-Arab females of prime working ages (25-54) are not employed, while the rates of non-employment of their spouses are double Western averages. In 1960, only 15 percent of the country's primary school pupils studied in the ultra-Orthodox and Israeli-Arab educational systems. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, in just four years, the 50 percent barrier will be crossed.
If today's youth adopt the work habits of their parents, it should be clear that, in another generation or two, the resultant majority of the country's population will create an untenable financial burden on the minority - who, by no small coincidence, will also be the sole bearers of the national defense burden. And what about the brain drain from Israel, which only accelerates this demographic process? Who is even dealing with this issue? ...
A political tiebreaker of a totally different magnitude is needed: A political system in which each of the representatives, from the president down to the last Knesset member, is elected to fixed terms of office directly by the people. Representatives from different towns and regions will have to start looking out for the education that their constituents' children receive, for jobs and personal security for the people who put them in office, for clean neighborhoods and environmental concerns in the areas that they come from. The accountability for successes and failures will be personal, with a corresponding political price tag.
When they will have to start dealing with the welfare of those who actually voted them into office, the politicians will have a lesser degree of freedom to advocate keeping the biblical Land of Israel instead preserving the health of today's State of Israel; a lesser degree of freedom to be more concerned about Palestinian Arabs in Nablus and Ramallah than about Israeli Arabs in Taibeh and Rahat; and a lesser degree of freedom to insist on Torah studies as a substitute for, rather than as a complement to, education that facilitates the understanding of modern democracy and provides the tools for working in a global economy.
The total number of seats currently held by the three largest parties - Kadima, Labor and Likud - has already fallen to just half of the Knesset's total (60 MKs in all). In light of the internal demographic changes that are taking place in Israel, the existing political fringes that represent narrow sectoral interests will become the majority in the Knesset in the near future, and the national perspective toward policy-making will have disappeared from the political scene....
The time has come for the leaders of Kadima, Labor and Likud to understand that the country has reached the point of no return. Only the leaders of these three parties still have the combined parliamentary ability to put in place a new democratic system of government by the next elections. This will be the ultimate political tiebreaker that will return to the people the ability to salvage their collective future.
This entire article can be read online at Haaretz.com.
In the latest polls, Livni is slightly ahead of Netanyahu, with Barak a very distant third.
A Yediot Achronot poll gives Kadima 29 seats, Likud 26 and Labor 11; Ma'ariv has Kadima earning 31 seats, Likud 29 and Labor 11.In the Yediot poll, the left-center and right-religious blocs are tied with 60 seats each in the 120-member Knesset; Ma’ariv has the left-center ahead, 61-59.
But according to Tel Aviv University economics professor Dan Ben-David, Israel's long term prospects look dire absent fundamental electoral reform:
... For quite a while, it has not been possible to govern in the Holy Land.
The problem is not only that the head of the country's executive arm is ... not given the authority to build a cabinet with ministers who know something about the realm of their ministries and who also work for him/her. The problem is not only that Knesset members are not elected personally by voters. ... The problem is not only the absence of fixed terms of office in the executive and legislative branches. ...
In Israel's current system of government, measures taken to survive politically in the present have a way of determining future reality. For example, it was not possible to remove Israeli citizens from Gaza without paying the political ransom of removing the ultra-Orthodox education stream from the system-wide educational reform that was approved at the time....
... They demand an increase in personal subsidies for each child - which have been shown to encourage extremely high birth rates - that are, in turn, translated into incomes that enable the choice of non-work as a way of life.
Three-quarters of ultra-Orthodox males and Israeli-Arab females of prime working ages (25-54) are not employed, while the rates of non-employment of their spouses are double Western averages. In 1960, only 15 percent of the country's primary school pupils studied in the ultra-Orthodox and Israeli-Arab educational systems. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, in just four years, the 50 percent barrier will be crossed.
If today's youth adopt the work habits of their parents, it should be clear that, in another generation or two, the resultant majority of the country's population will create an untenable financial burden on the minority - who, by no small coincidence, will also be the sole bearers of the national defense burden. And what about the brain drain from Israel, which only accelerates this demographic process? Who is even dealing with this issue? ...
A political tiebreaker of a totally different magnitude is needed: A political system in which each of the representatives, from the president down to the last Knesset member, is elected to fixed terms of office directly by the people. Representatives from different towns and regions will have to start looking out for the education that their constituents' children receive, for jobs and personal security for the people who put them in office, for clean neighborhoods and environmental concerns in the areas that they come from. The accountability for successes and failures will be personal, with a corresponding political price tag.
When they will have to start dealing with the welfare of those who actually voted them into office, the politicians will have a lesser degree of freedom to advocate keeping the biblical Land of Israel instead preserving the health of today's State of Israel; a lesser degree of freedom to be more concerned about Palestinian Arabs in Nablus and Ramallah than about Israeli Arabs in Taibeh and Rahat; and a lesser degree of freedom to insist on Torah studies as a substitute for, rather than as a complement to, education that facilitates the understanding of modern democracy and provides the tools for working in a global economy.
The total number of seats currently held by the three largest parties - Kadima, Labor and Likud - has already fallen to just half of the Knesset's total (60 MKs in all). In light of the internal demographic changes that are taking place in Israel, the existing political fringes that represent narrow sectoral interests will become the majority in the Knesset in the near future, and the national perspective toward policy-making will have disappeared from the political scene....
The time has come for the leaders of Kadima, Labor and Likud to understand that the country has reached the point of no return. Only the leaders of these three parties still have the combined parliamentary ability to put in place a new democratic system of government by the next elections. This will be the ultimate political tiebreaker that will return to the people the ability to salvage their collective future.
This entire article can be read online at Haaretz.com.
Another Five Guys Opens, Bay Ridge, Brooklyn
"HEY! You're OPEN!!" were the words out of the mouth of a very excited employee of nearby Chase Bank as he made his way to the counter. The best part was that he applauded loudly all the way from the front door to the counter as if he were trying to get the 'team' pumped up. This man was clearly excited about opening day.
And he should be. Craig Cohen has done it again and opened his third Five Guys franchise in Brooklyn in just over a year. The first was on Montague St., the second only steps from my apartment in Park Slope. Craig greeted me and expert burger taster Kris Brearton (pictured above) with big handshakes and told us that 2 more stores are in the works for Brooklyn, one in Cobble Hill, and one in MetroTech Center, north of the downtown Marriott.
Many set-in-their-ways locals peered in the window, squinted at the menu, and one skeptical woman even asked Kris, "Is it any good?" Amazingly, Craig has set up shop only a few feet from a Burger King and 4 doors down from the beloved Brooklyn time warp Hinch's Soda Fountain. If I were to guess, Burger King will suffer and Hinch's will be just fine. BK is the only one of the three using frozen patties.
Craig asked me if I needed anything and I told him that I've always wanted a close-up look at the famed proprietary burger smasher. The grill man took a 20 second break from the grill and I was rewarded with this excellent photo op. A unique solution to burger size management that produces the same perfect not-too-thin patty every time.
After eating my usual regular bacon cheeseburger (always a double) We skipped the free soda refill and headed down to Hinch's for a classic soda fountain chocolate malt. The perfect end to a well-balanced, high calorie lunch in Bay Ridge.
Another Five Guys Opens, Bay Ridge, Brooklyn
"HEY! You're OPEN!!" were the words out of the mouth of a very excited employee of nearby Chase Bank as he made his way to the counter. The best part was that he applauded loudly all the way from the front door to the counter as if he were trying to get the 'team' pumped up. This man was clearly excited about opening day.
And he should be. Craig Cohen has done it again and opened his third Five Guys franchise in Brooklyn in just over a year. The first was on Montague St., the second only steps from my apartment in Park Slope. Craig greeted me and expert burger taster Kris Brearton (pictured above) with big handshakes and told us that 2 more stores are in the works for Brooklyn, one in Cobble Hill, and one in MetroTech Center, north of the downtown Marriott.
Many set-in-their-ways locals peered in the window, squinted at the menu, and one skeptical woman even asked Kris, "Is it any good?" Amazingly, Craig has set up shop only a few feet from a Burger King and 4 doors down from the beloved Brooklyn time warp Hinch's Soda Fountain. If I were to guess, Burger King will suffer and Hinch's will be just fine. BK is the only one of the three using frozen patties.
Craig asked me if I needed anything and I told him that I've always wanted a close-up look at the famed proprietary burger smasher. The grill man took a 20 second break from the grill and I was rewarded with this excellent photo op. A unique solution to burger size management that produces the same perfect not-too-thin patty every time.
After eating my usual regular bacon cheeseburger (always a double) We skipped the free soda refill and headed down to Hinch's for a classic soda fountain chocolate malt. The perfect end to a well-balanced, high calorie lunch in Bay Ridge.
Growing Smarter in California's Car-Dependent Regions
Across the San Joaquin Valley, one of California's fastest-growing regions, cities on average are doing about half of what they might to encourage smart growth.
Fifty-six of the valley's 60 cities achieved smart growth scores of less than 70 percent, according to a comprehensive planning audit developed and conducted by The Modesto Bee in cooperation with the Great Valley Center and a class of California State University, Stanislaus, pollsters.
Modesto Bee
Growing Smarter in California's Car-Dependent Regions
Across the San Joaquin Valley, one of California's fastest-growing regions, cities on average are doing about half of what they might to encourage smart growth.
Fifty-six of the valley's 60 cities achieved smart growth scores of less than 70 percent, according to a comprehensive planning audit developed and conducted by The Modesto Bee in cooperation with the Great Valley Center and a class of California State University, Stanislaus, pollsters.
Modesto Bee
Polling Season in Israel
The Israeli media loves public opinion polls, especially polls of the electoral kind. So it should come as no surprise that, even before President Shimon Peres announced that Israel is headed for early elections, two polls of Israeli voting inclinations had already been published. A poll by Dahaf in the Yediot newspaper indicates that Israel's right-religious bloc may not prove as unbeatable as had widely been feared: Polls over the last year have given this bloc around 70 of the next Knesset's 120 seats, but Dahaf's new poll has this bloc at 60.
Here are the estimated results of the Knesset elections if voting took place today (a la Dahaf):
Right-Religious
Likud 26
Shas 11
Yisrael Beiteinu 9
National Union/National Religious Party 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Total 60
Center-Left
Kadima 29
Labor 11
Meretz 6
Greens 2
Pensioners 2
"Arab parties" 10
Total 60
(Sorry about the "Arab parties", but, in its reportage, Israel's Hebrew-language media generally doesn't bother to discriminate between three distinct parties, all of which find their main constituency among the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel - Hadash, Balad, and Ra'am-Ta'al.)
A poll by Teleseker showed Kadima with 31 seats, Likud with 29 and Labor with 11.
Here are the estimated results of the Knesset elections if voting took place today (a la Dahaf):
Right-Religious
Likud 26
Shas 11
Yisrael Beiteinu 9
National Union/National Religious Party 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Total 60
Center-Left
Kadima 29
Labor 11
Meretz 6
Greens 2
Pensioners 2
"Arab parties" 10
Total 60
(Sorry about the "Arab parties", but, in its reportage, Israel's Hebrew-language media generally doesn't bother to discriminate between three distinct parties, all of which find their main constituency among the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel - Hadash, Balad, and Ra'am-Ta'al.)
A poll by Teleseker showed Kadima with 31 seats, Likud with 29 and Labor with 11.
Sterling crashes
It is down 13 percent this month alone. Does anyone see a problem here?
Is this a good time to cut interest rates?
Throwing caution to the wind
I know you have seen this clip, but this blog would be missing something I didn't post it.
By any means necessary
"It is not simply liquidity and the restructuring of the banks. It is to enable banks to start lending again by whatever means necessary."
Gordon Brown, October 2007
Such desperation.
The UK economy has become so dependent on credit growth that it literally can not survive without it. That dependency is so great that the Prime Minister announces that he will do literally anything to get banks to borrow. "By whatever means necessary" - that is Brown's promise.
This means he wants to bury UK households deeper into debt. Borrow for Britain, keep the economy growing by promising to buy today and pay later.
This is Brown's economic strategy. He means to turn us into debt slaves, bonded to the banks, with everyone worrying about how we will make those monthly payments.
UK households owe financial institutions around 170 percent of disposable income. We don't need more debt, we need to start paying it off. We need to return to some basic principles of sound financial management. We must start to live within our means.
This means no more debt.
Gordon Brown, October 2007
Such desperation.
The UK economy has become so dependent on credit growth that it literally can not survive without it. That dependency is so great that the Prime Minister announces that he will do literally anything to get banks to borrow. "By whatever means necessary" - that is Brown's promise.
This means he wants to bury UK households deeper into debt. Borrow for Britain, keep the economy growing by promising to buy today and pay later.
This is Brown's economic strategy. He means to turn us into debt slaves, bonded to the banks, with everyone worrying about how we will make those monthly payments.
UK households owe financial institutions around 170 percent of disposable income. We don't need more debt, we need to start paying it off. We need to return to some basic principles of sound financial management. We must start to live within our means.
This means no more debt.
Using the FOI Act
Courses for new & experienced requesters
The Campaign for Freedom of Information is running two half-day training courses for FOI requesters on 9 December 2008. The morning course will provide an introduction to legislation, covering both the Freedom of Information Act and the parallel Environmental Information Regulations. The afternoon course will examine some of the key decisions made under the two regimes and explain how they can help you obtain information. Requesters can attend either or both courses, which will be in central London.
Download the course leaflet for more details.
Courses for new & experienced requesters
The Campaign for Freedom of Information is running two half-day training courses for FOI requesters on 9 December 2008. The morning course will provide an introduction to legislation, covering both the Freedom of Information Act and the parallel Environmental Information Regulations. The afternoon course will examine some of the key decisions made under the two regimes and explain how they can help you obtain information. Requesters can attend either or both courses, which will be in central London.
Download the course leaflet for more details.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Election fever - now Israel's turn?
Just when we thought we were coming to the end of election season, the politicians in Israel seem to be pulling us back in! Although nothing is final, the most recent developments indicate that as American electoral campaigns wind down on November 4th, Israel's great political race will just be getting underway.
The news from Friday suggests that Kadima leader, Foreign Minister Tzipp Livni, has struck out in her efforts to form a new government, and that Israelis will be heading to the polls in early 2009. This comes after the ultra-orthodox Mizrahi (Sephardi) Shas party, a member of the current caretaker government, announced that it had made a "final" decision not to join a government led by Livni.
Shas based its decision on Livni's reported unwillingness to approve almost three hundred million dollars in additional transfer payments to large families (a prime Shas constituency). She also seems to have rejected a key Shas demand that she pledge in writing not to negotiate with the Palestinians about the future of Jerusalem.
Of course, nothing in Israeli politics is final until it absolutely is, and several election-averting scenarios still exist.
READ MORE...!
The news from Friday suggests that Kadima leader, Foreign Minister Tzipp Livni, has struck out in her efforts to form a new government, and that Israelis will be heading to the polls in early 2009. This comes after the ultra-orthodox Mizrahi (Sephardi) Shas party, a member of the current caretaker government, announced that it had made a "final" decision not to join a government led by Livni.
Shas based its decision on Livni's reported unwillingness to approve almost three hundred million dollars in additional transfer payments to large families (a prime Shas constituency). She also seems to have rejected a key Shas demand that she pledge in writing not to negotiate with the Palestinians about the future of Jerusalem.
Of course, nothing in Israeli politics is final until it absolutely is, and several election-averting scenarios still exist.
READ MORE...!
You can't spend your way out of a recession
No sir, that has been tried many times before.
I have been dismayed by the lack of criticism of Darling's plans from economists, at least until today. The Telegraph carried this short but welcome letter. It is from a group of leading economists who describe the Government's spending strategy as "misguided and discredited".
Read on.....
It is misguided for the Government to believe that it knows how much specific sectors of the economy need to shrink and which will shrink "too rapidly" in a recession. Thus the Government cannot know how to use an expansion in expenditure that would not risk seriously misallocating resources.
Furthermore, public expenditure has already risen very rapidly in recent years, and a further large rise would take the role of the state in many parts of the economy to such a dominant position that it would stunt the private sector's recovery once recession is past. Occasional slowdowns are natural and necessary features of a market economy.
Insofar as they are to be managed at all, the best tools are monetary and not fiscal ones. It is inevitable that government expenditure and debt naturally rise in a recession but planned rises in government spending are misguided and discredited as a tool of economic management.
If this recession has features that demand more active fiscal policy, which is highly disputable, taxes should be cut. This would allow the market to determine which parts of the economy shrink and which flourish to replace them.
Personally, I would have liked to have seen more emphasis on monetary policy, which I believe is also misguided. Nevertheless, a robust attack on Darling's expenditure plans is a start.
I have been dismayed by the lack of criticism of Darling's plans from economists, at least until today. The Telegraph carried this short but welcome letter. It is from a group of leading economists who describe the Government's spending strategy as "misguided and discredited".
Read on.....
It is misguided for the Government to believe that it knows how much specific sectors of the economy need to shrink and which will shrink "too rapidly" in a recession. Thus the Government cannot know how to use an expansion in expenditure that would not risk seriously misallocating resources.
Furthermore, public expenditure has already risen very rapidly in recent years, and a further large rise would take the role of the state in many parts of the economy to such a dominant position that it would stunt the private sector's recovery once recession is past. Occasional slowdowns are natural and necessary features of a market economy.
Insofar as they are to be managed at all, the best tools are monetary and not fiscal ones. It is inevitable that government expenditure and debt naturally rise in a recession but planned rises in government spending are misguided and discredited as a tool of economic management.
If this recession has features that demand more active fiscal policy, which is highly disputable, taxes should be cut. This would allow the market to determine which parts of the economy shrink and which flourish to replace them.
Personally, I would have liked to have seen more emphasis on monetary policy, which I believe is also misguided. Nevertheless, a robust attack on Darling's expenditure plans is a start.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
It is time to stop this policy incoherence
UK economic policy is sliding into total incoherence.
According to the Times, Darling wants to defend sterling, which has fallen remorselessly since this crisis began. He is going to achieve this by saying that the government "has not abandoned its fiscal policy rules."
Darling can say what he likes, the data tells us that the government abandoned its fiscal rules long ago. Last week, Darly talked about accelerating government expenditure. With tax revenues falling, this is a template for a higher public sector deficit. Besides, the UK government is likely to run up a deficit of at least 4.3 percent of GDP this year.
On the monetary side, the situation is also a mess. Interest rates are about to come down. This will further weaken sterling, and runs counter to Darling's aim of defending the currency. Afterall, there is nothing like reducing the rate of return on sterling assets to lead to a capital outflow.
As for inflation, again there is incoherence. The BoE have already cut rates, which are now negative in real terms. As expected, sterling crashed and inflation increased. Now, the MPC will cut again, which will further weaken sterling.
There is an alternative to this chaos; get the policy fundamentals right. The government needs to restore confidence in the public sector accounts. This means restraining expenditures, and if necessary, increasing tax.
For its part, the MPC should raise rates and ensure that they are positive in real terms. As for the financial crisis, the government should recapitalize them as planned, the FSA should be abolished and supervision returned to the Bank of England.
In the short run, this will generate a recession. This will be painful, but with a stronger, more credible policy framework, based on a sustainable fiscal policy and a credible anti-inflation strategy, the economy will bounce out of this slowdown more quickly.
According to the Times, Darling wants to defend sterling, which has fallen remorselessly since this crisis began. He is going to achieve this by saying that the government "has not abandoned its fiscal policy rules."
Darling can say what he likes, the data tells us that the government abandoned its fiscal rules long ago. Last week, Darly talked about accelerating government expenditure. With tax revenues falling, this is a template for a higher public sector deficit. Besides, the UK government is likely to run up a deficit of at least 4.3 percent of GDP this year.
On the monetary side, the situation is also a mess. Interest rates are about to come down. This will further weaken sterling, and runs counter to Darling's aim of defending the currency. Afterall, there is nothing like reducing the rate of return on sterling assets to lead to a capital outflow.
As for inflation, again there is incoherence. The BoE have already cut rates, which are now negative in real terms. As expected, sterling crashed and inflation increased. Now, the MPC will cut again, which will further weaken sterling.
There is an alternative to this chaos; get the policy fundamentals right. The government needs to restore confidence in the public sector accounts. This means restraining expenditures, and if necessary, increasing tax.
For its part, the MPC should raise rates and ensure that they are positive in real terms. As for the financial crisis, the government should recapitalize them as planned, the FSA should be abolished and supervision returned to the Bank of England.
In the short run, this will generate a recession. This will be painful, but with a stronger, more credible policy framework, based on a sustainable fiscal policy and a credible anti-inflation strategy, the economy will bounce out of this slowdown more quickly.
Voderman can't sell her flat
The Times is reporting that Carol Vorderman is having trouble selling her penthouse flat.
"The quiz show presenter Carol Vorderman is facing a financial countdown of her own after slashing the asking price for her Thameside penthouse by £800,000. Vorderman has been unable to find a buyer since putting the flat – which overlooks the parliament buildings – on the market in May for £5.75m.
In a concession to the property slump, the price tag has now been reduced to £4.95m. It is possible Vorderman may have to settle for even less as her most serious bidder is understood to be offering just £3.5m."
It reminds me of an earlier quote from Carol, who has a long history of dabbling in the buy to let business.
"In the '90s, when I had money to buy property other than the one I was living in, I started to buy an awful lot off-plan, particularly on the waterfront in London. I would often sell before completion: you put 10 per cent down, sell early and make money on your 10 per cent rather than on the full amount. I have bought a lot of property, and it has been a passion. Every time I go on holiday, that's what I do. I go to estate agents and developments, much to the aggravation of anyone I'm with. Over the years, not talking about where I've lived, but as investments, I've bought about 20 properties."
She might have to go lower than £3.5 million. The FTSE crash has wiped out a mountain of wealth. The rich are not as rich as they used to be.
"The quiz show presenter Carol Vorderman is facing a financial countdown of her own after slashing the asking price for her Thameside penthouse by £800,000. Vorderman has been unable to find a buyer since putting the flat – which overlooks the parliament buildings – on the market in May for £5.75m.
In a concession to the property slump, the price tag has now been reduced to £4.95m. It is possible Vorderman may have to settle for even less as her most serious bidder is understood to be offering just £3.5m."
It reminds me of an earlier quote from Carol, who has a long history of dabbling in the buy to let business.
"In the '90s, when I had money to buy property other than the one I was living in, I started to buy an awful lot off-plan, particularly on the waterfront in London. I would often sell before completion: you put 10 per cent down, sell early and make money on your 10 per cent rather than on the full amount. I have bought a lot of property, and it has been a passion. Every time I go on holiday, that's what I do. I go to estate agents and developments, much to the aggravation of anyone I'm with. Over the years, not talking about where I've lived, but as investments, I've bought about 20 properties."
She might have to go lower than £3.5 million. The FTSE crash has wiped out a mountain of wealth. The rich are not as rich as they used to be.
Bobby's Burger Palace
On a recent trip out to visit my parents on Eastern Long Island I decided to swing by Bobby Flay's newest food adventure Bobby's Burger Palace for some meaty nourishment. Currently, the sole location in the future chain is in Lake Grove, NY, in the enormo Smith Haven Mall. The mall is a destination in itself but not really on the way to anywhere, unless you live nearby or are headed to Stony Brook University. It's out there.
The interior is slick but comfortable. The ordering system slightly confusing but very efficient (it's similar to the ordering at brgr where you order/pay first, get a number, and find a seat. The food finds you). And the burgers are pretty damned good. I know that Nick Solares had an unfortunate over-cooked burger experience when he visited but I lucked out I guess. My burger was cooked to a perfect, juicy medium that was pink throughout. They wisely cook on a flattop griddle instead of a gas flame.
There are many wacky burger combos on the menu (the burger piled high with potato chips called the 'Crunchburger' stands out, pictured above with Bobby, Newsday photo) and a few burgers that are trying to be 'regional' but sort of miss the mark (the Santa Fe burger has jalepenos(?) and a queso sauce on it...not many jalepenos in the green chile cheeseburger state. This burger sounds great, but more like a Tex-Mex burger). I stuck with the Palace Classic, a cheeseburger.
I also ordered fries and was surprised to find a very familiar sauce accompanying them...Schnack Sauce! Though that's not what it was called. I asked manager Phil what the ingredients were and he was a bit cagey. When I told him what I thought was in the sauce he smiled. Chipotle and mayo is hard to beat, especially for fries. Cudos to Bobby's Burger Palace for making a very spicy dipping sauce standard with the fries.
I also tried the squirt bottle of Bobby's Burger Sauce that was on the counter and that was amazing. Phil told me it was the same recipe as Flay's signature steak sauce and kicked some ass.
I'll be back, even though it's not really on the way to my parents. They make some kickin' shakes too and I'll need to try this crazy 'Crunchburger' soon.
Bobby's Burger Palace
On a recent trip out to visit my parents on Eastern Long Island I decided to swing by Bobby Flay's newest food adventure Bobby's Burger Palace for some meaty nourishment. Currently, the sole location in the future chain is in Lake Grove, NY, in the enormo Smith Haven Mall. The mall is a destination in itself but not really on the way to anywhere, unless you live nearby or are headed to Stony Brook University. It's out there.
The interior is slick but comfortable. The ordering system slightly confusing but very efficient (it's similar to the ordering at brgr where you order/pay first, get a number, and find a seat. The food finds you). And the burgers are pretty damned good. I know that Nick Solares had an unfortunate over-cooked burger experience when he visited but I lucked out I guess. My burger was cooked to a perfect, juicy medium that was pink throughout. They wisely cook on a flattop griddle instead of a gas flame.
There are many wacky burger combos on the menu (the burger piled high with potato chips called the 'Crunchburger' stands out, pictured above with Bobby, Newsday photo) and a few burgers that are trying to be 'regional' but sort of miss the mark (the Santa Fe burger has jalepenos(?) and a queso sauce on it...not many jalepenos in the green chile cheeseburger state. This burger sounds great, but more like a Tex-Mex burger). I stuck with the Palace Classic, a cheeseburger.
I also ordered fries and was surprised to find a very familiar sauce accompanying them...Schnack Sauce! Though that's not what it was called. I asked manager Phil what the ingredients were and he was a bit cagey. When I told him what I thought was in the sauce he smiled. Chipotle and mayo is hard to beat, especially for fries. Cudos to Bobby's Burger Palace for making a very spicy dipping sauce standard with the fries.
I also tried the squirt bottle of Bobby's Burger Sauce that was on the counter and that was amazing. Phil told me it was the same recipe as Flay's signature steak sauce and kicked some ass.
I'll be back, even though it's not really on the way to my parents. They make some kickin' shakes too and I'll need to try this crazy 'Crunchburger' soon.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Average mortgage loans down 19 percent
For me, it is the contradictions that I find really irritating. For example, we know that today's crisis is due to bankers handing out huge risky loans to overstretched borrowers. In extreme cases, loan to value ratios exceeded 100 percent.
We also know that this huge surge in credit bid up house prices, and encouraged speculation, with the buy to let scam being the pinnacle of this financial idiocy.
Last week, we heard from a chastened Financial Services Authority, who told banks that there was going to be no more Mr. Nice Guy. From now on, the FSA are going to get serious about bank regulation.
Then, we have the chart above. It suggests that the banks might have actually learnt something in the last six months. The average size of a mortgage loan is down 19 percent in the last six months. This decline is far quicker and deeper than the decline in house prices. This implies that loan to value ratios are becoming more prudent.
Yesterday, we learnt that the UK is in recession, a fact that was accompanied by the usual demands to cut interest rates. Moreover, the cause of the GDP decline was the housing crash. In particular, the sudden contraction home equity loans has cut back consumption, coupled with a growing awareness among homeowners that they weren't quite as rich as they thought.
Here we come to the contradiction. In order for a rate increase to work, the house prices would have to start to rise again. However, this implies rising debt levels, higher loan to value ratios and higher banking sector risk.
This doesn't sit easily with the FSA's promise to tighten up regulation. If banks are to improve the quality of their balance sheets, risky lending has to stop. Cutting rates while banks are cleaning up the mess strongly suggests that rates won't actually do much to boost output.
I don't wish to trivialize the pain of a recession, but the UK economy has entered a painful adjustment. To their credit, banks are beginning to understand this, and they have taken the first tentative steps towards recovery. Households are also starting to understand that personal debt levels need to fall, and consumption is falling back to more sustainable levels. This has inevitably led to a fall in output.
Even if rate cuts did work, with credit increasing, the housing bubble reigniting and output recovering, inflation would pick up. Somewhere down the road, the BoE would have to choose between a renewed round in rate hikes, which could re-ignite banking sector difficulties, or it would have tolerate permanently higher inflation rates.
What we need now is patience. We need to let the economy recover. It will take time for households to cut back their debt levels, and for banks to reduce their leverage ratios and clean up their balance sheets. What we don't need right now is some desperate short term measures that will interrupt this recuperation.
The only people who haven't "got the memo" are journalists and politicians.
The 2007 Utility Financial Rankings
Electric Light & Power magazine uses The C Three Group as its source for compiling Total Revenue Rankings for American electricity utilities. The top twenty with their 2007 revenue amounts include:
1. Constellation Energy $ 21 billion
2. Exelon $ 19 billion
3. Dominion Resources $ 16 billion
4. Southern Company $ 15 billion
5. FPL Group $ 15 billion
6. AES Corporation $ 13.5 billion
7. American Electric Power $ 13.3 billion
8. PG&E $ 13.2 billion
9. Consolidated Edison $ 13.1 billion
10. Edison International $ 13.1 billion
11. Public Service Enterprise Group $ 12.8 billion
12. FirstEnergy $ 12.8 billion
13. Duke Enegy $ 12.7 billion
14. Entergy Corporation $ 11.4 billion
15. Sempra $ 11.4 billion
16. Reliant $ 11.2 billion
17. Williams Companies $ 10.5 billion
18. Integys Energy $ 10.2 billion
19. Xcel Energy Inc $ 10 billion
20. Centerpoint Energy $ 9.6 billion
CHARTS: [Total Revenue Rankings, Capital Expenditures, Income from Continuing Operations]
1. Constellation Energy $ 21 billion2. Exelon $ 19 billion
3. Dominion Resources $ 16 billion
4. Southern Company $ 15 billion
5. FPL Group $ 15 billion
6. AES Corporation $ 13.5 billion
7. American Electric Power $ 13.3 billion
8. PG&E $ 13.2 billion
9. Consolidated Edison $ 13.1 billion
10. Edison International $ 13.1 billion
11. Public Service Enterprise Group $ 12.8 billion
12. FirstEnergy $ 12.8 billion
13. Duke Enegy $ 12.7 billion
14. Entergy Corporation $ 11.4 billion
15. Sempra $ 11.4 billion
16. Reliant $ 11.2 billion
17. Williams Companies $ 10.5 billion
18. Integys Energy $ 10.2 billion
19. Xcel Energy Inc $ 10 billion
20. Centerpoint Energy $ 9.6 billion
CHARTS: [Total Revenue Rankings, Capital Expenditures, Income from Continuing Operations]
BTL - somebody help please
Today, the FT reported:
"Rescue plans for buy-to-let landlords, who face the prospect of seeing properties in their portfolios repossessed, are now being launched as the housing market continues to collapse.
Egerton Partners, an advisory firm, is one of the first groups to set up a plan. It is seeking out wealthy investors who might be interested in putting up capital to help struggling buy-to-let owners with property portfolios of £5m to £30m.
With such “partnership-agreements”, the buy-to-let landlord would retain ownership of the property, but the investor would receive any return up to a stated threshold. The original owner, however, would have the chance to benefit if rental yields on the property exceeded the threshold laid out in the contract.
"The arrangement allows the buy-to-let owner to maintain an ongoing role in the management of the portfolio and have a chance to gain a slice of the upside, if it is impressive,” explains Chris Fleming-Brown, a managing partner with Egerton."
There is well over one million officially recognised BTL mortgages in the UK, with many more hiding as owner-occupier mortgages. Overall, BTL accounts for over 10 percent of all outstanding mortgages. It is going to take an army of "wealthy investors" to bail out the BTL mountain of bad investments.
With UK house prices already down 15 percent, and the economy in recession, it is only a matter of time before the BTL market is gripped by an historically unprecedented panic.
To coin useful old cliche, it is going to be a race for the fire exit. If you are first through the door, you might survive. Everyone else will be destroyed as the whole rotten structure comes crashing down in flames.
I wish it were otherwise, but BTL was always a scam. It was always going to end this way, with far too many naive investors losing everything.
"Rescue plans for buy-to-let landlords, who face the prospect of seeing properties in their portfolios repossessed, are now being launched as the housing market continues to collapse.
Egerton Partners, an advisory firm, is one of the first groups to set up a plan. It is seeking out wealthy investors who might be interested in putting up capital to help struggling buy-to-let owners with property portfolios of £5m to £30m.
With such “partnership-agreements”, the buy-to-let landlord would retain ownership of the property, but the investor would receive any return up to a stated threshold. The original owner, however, would have the chance to benefit if rental yields on the property exceeded the threshold laid out in the contract.
"The arrangement allows the buy-to-let owner to maintain an ongoing role in the management of the portfolio and have a chance to gain a slice of the upside, if it is impressive,” explains Chris Fleming-Brown, a managing partner with Egerton."
There is well over one million officially recognised BTL mortgages in the UK, with many more hiding as owner-occupier mortgages. Overall, BTL accounts for over 10 percent of all outstanding mortgages. It is going to take an army of "wealthy investors" to bail out the BTL mountain of bad investments.
With UK house prices already down 15 percent, and the economy in recession, it is only a matter of time before the BTL market is gripped by an historically unprecedented panic.
To coin useful old cliche, it is going to be a race for the fire exit. If you are first through the door, you might survive. Everyone else will be destroyed as the whole rotten structure comes crashing down in flames.
I wish it were otherwise, but BTL was always a scam. It was always going to end this way, with far too many naive investors losing everything.
UK slides into recession
Today's GDP data release was shocking. The UK economy shrank by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, giving an annualized decline of 2 percent. Given that economic growth in the second quarter was flat, we are on fairly safe ground claiming that the UK is in a recession.As the grim news spread across the media, we heard the usual predictions that the Bank of England would now cut rates. At its next meeting, the MPC will offer a hefty headline grabbing rate cut. A fifty basis points cut is definitely on the cards. Who knows; the MPC might even go further.
Predicting the MPC's response is easy, predicting the response of the economy to lower rates is much harder. My sense is that in the short run, cutting rates will not rescue the economy from a deep recession. In the long run, it is likely to do more harm than good.
A rate cut will not work because the credit crunch has wrecked the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Under normal circumstances, if the MPC was a little worried about growth, it could cut its official rate. Interbank rates would follow, and since the loan rate are mosly priced in terms of LIBOR, credit would bcome cheaper. Firms and households would borrow more, demand would pick up and economic growth would increase.
Monetary policy does not work like this anymore. The MPC have already cut 100 basis points off its official rates, and lending rates have, for the most part, have not responded. Moreover, published interest rates do not tell the full story, credit availability has tightened, particularly for mortgages and home equity loans.
However, there is a deeper inconsistency at work here. Banks are cutting back on loans because they now recognise that the UK household sector is overloaded with debt. If a couple of additional rate cuts actually encouraged further credit growth, it would only lead to a further deteroriation of household balance sheets. This would imply higher risk levels for banks, which can only be compensated by higher lending rates. Fundamentally, this is the reason why previous rate cuts haven't worked so.
What about inflation? Won't a slowdown solve this problem, leaving monetary policy to focus on demand management? If the past is any guide, inflation can be surprisingly persistent, even during deep and nasty recessions.
When the economy slip into recessions, it undergoes some very unpleasant structural changes, which often reduces aggregate supply. As firms disappear, supplier relationships are disrupted, and this adds to costs. As competitors disappear, the remaining firms gain a degree of monpoly power that allows them to push up prices. When firms downsize, they lose valuable human capital that makes firms as a whole less productive. As the economy's supply capacity contracts, prices tend to go up. It is worth recalling that in the three previous recessions, inflation remained supprisingly high.
In addition, rate cut might exacerbate these trends by weakening sterling and raising import prices. So the UK may end up with a rather nasty combination of negative growth and rapid inflation.
Certaintly, the data so far confirms this unpleasant scenario. As I have pointed out many times before, the UK inflation rate picked up very sharply as the credit crunch first hit our financial markets.
Shake Shack Burger On Camera!
Josh Ozersky has done something all true burger lovers can appreciate - he has revealed, with video camera in tow, how the Shake Shack makes their burgers. Winners of numerous accolades in their very short history, the Shack invites Josh and camera into their new Upper West Side location.
\
I'm totally flummoxed by the chrome (?) griddle. How come this is the first I've heard of this surface for burgers? The burgers at Shake Shack really are amazing and I concur with the single-smash method the cooks employ. Thanks for the burger tour, Josh. (Ozersky has a new home at The Feedbag after leaving Grub Street)
\
I'm totally flummoxed by the chrome (?) griddle. How come this is the first I've heard of this surface for burgers? The burgers at Shake Shack really are amazing and I concur with the single-smash method the cooks employ. Thanks for the burger tour, Josh. (Ozersky has a new home at The Feedbag after leaving Grub Street)
Shake Shack Burger On Camera!
Josh Ozersky has done something all true burger lovers can appreciate - he has revealed, with video camera in tow, how the Shake Shack makes their burgers. Winners of numerous accolades in their very short history, the Shack invites Josh and camera into their new Upper West Side location.
\
I'm totally flummoxed by the chrome (?) griddle. How come this is the first I've heard of this surface for burgers? The burgers at Shake Shack really are amazing and I concur with the single-smash method the cooks employ. Thanks for the burger tour, Josh. (Ozersky has a new home at The Feedbag after leaving Grub Street)
\
I'm totally flummoxed by the chrome (?) griddle. How come this is the first I've heard of this surface for burgers? The burgers at Shake Shack really are amazing and I concur with the single-smash method the cooks employ. Thanks for the burger tour, Josh. (Ozersky has a new home at The Feedbag after leaving Grub Street)
Transit Projects hit Credit Wall
Metro and 30 other transit agencies across the country may have to pay billions of dollars to large banks as years-old financing deals unravel, potentially hurting service for millions of bus and train riders, transit officials said yesterday.
Washington Post
This credit crunch could not come at a worse time. Americans are flocking to transit in record numbers and many systems cannot handle all the new riders. Transit systems nationwide desperately need to expand their service.
Salon has details.
Transit Projects hit Credit Wall
Metro and 30 other transit agencies across the country may have to pay billions of dollars to large banks as years-old financing deals unravel, potentially hurting service for millions of bus and train riders, transit officials said yesterday.
Washington Post
This credit crunch could not come at a worse time. Americans are flocking to transit in record numbers and many systems cannot handle all the new riders. Transit systems nationwide desperately need to expand their service.
Salon has details.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Oil Prices Dropping (Just As AAEA Said They Would)
Our energy expert associates and friends insisted to us that the price of oil would never go down. This after we have told them on two or three other occassions that the price would go down. It always has and always will until the last drop is burned in the last internal combustion engine. In the current situation it is a combination of a pending election, sluggish economy and reduction in demand due to high gasoline prices. Regardless, it has killed technological proposals (again).
AAEA opposes expanded offshore drilling but we support coal-to-liquids (CTLs). CTLs need oil to be above roughly $100 a barrel in order to be cost competitive with crude. The price of a barrel of light crude oil for delivery in December is about $67 per barrel, down from $145 in July. Other hydrocarbon fuels will mirror this drop. Expect prices to go back up for the summer 2009 driving season. At least the renewables tax extensions passed, even if they were included in that horrible Wall Street 'bailout' bill. Let the market work.
Introducing the next version of Gmail for mobile
We're happy to announce some big improvements to Gmail for mobile for J2ME-supported and BlackBerry phones. Our focus for this version was to make the experience faster and more reliable. Along the way we've added some time-saving features so you can check email across multiple accounts (including both Gmail and Google Apps email accounts), compose messages even when you don't have a signal, return to your inbox while mail sends in the background, undo recent actions, and work quickly with shortcut keys which you can learn about in Gmail for mobile's main menu (click Help).*
Also, Gmail for mobile is available in over 35 languages now.
To download the new version of Gmail for mobile, just go to m.google.com/mail in your mobile browser. For more info, check out the Google mobile blog.
*Please note that not all features are available for all phones.
Commercial bank liquidity - the long run trends.
Last week, the FSA were talking tough. In future, things are going to tighten up; no more soft touch regulation, banks are going to have to behave themselves.The FSA would do well to take a look at just how lack regulation has become over the last forty or so years. The Bank of England track three measures of commercial bank liquidity; the broad ratio, the reserve ratio and the narrow ratio. The definition of these ratios isn't particularly important. All three ratios compare the total assets of the banking sector with what cash and near cash assets the banks are holding.
The basic message is clear enough. Over the last forty years, banks have reduced their liquidity to virtually nothing. Of course, the banks would defend this trend by saying that with financial innovation and increasingly sophisticated markets, it is not necessary for banks to hold so much liquidity these days.
Well, the experience of the last 15 months suggests otherwise.
Meretz party statements on Acre
A number of people have asked me to post the reactions issued by Meretz party figures in Israel, following the "Yom Kippur disturbances" in the city of Acre. The original statements can be found at the Meretz party website in Hebrew. The translations to English are mine.
Yossi Beilin, October 9: Nothing being done to address discrimination against Arab citizens
In reaction to the events in Acre, Meretz MK Yossi Beilin stated that eight years have gone by since the October 2000 riots, and nothing has been done to implement the recommendations of the Orr Commission regarding the unequal status of Israel's Arab citizens. "We are sitting on a powder keg, but somehow we're surprised each time the tension explodes," he commented, calling for a concerted effort to address this issue.
Haim Oron and Zehava Galon, October 10: We mustn't surrender to extremists
Meretz chair, MK Haim Oron, and Meretz MK Zehava Galon have separately called on the Mayor of Acre, Shimon Lancri, not to cancel the annual Acre Theater Festival during Sukkot. Oron said that such a step would be, "an act of surrender to Arab and Jewish extremists". Galon stated that, "the supreme test of the police is to uphold democratic rule in the country and not permit mob rule". The two MKs stressed that extremists on both sides must not be allowed to dictate events.
Haim Oron, October 16: Free the Arab driver from Acre
Meretz chair, MK Haim Oron, has called on the Public Security Minister, requesting that he consider the release of Tawfik Jamal, the driver from Acre who drove into a predominantly Jewish neighborhood on Yom Kippur eve, and who was later arrested on charges of harming religious sensitivities and reckless endangerment. Oron stated: "I don't see the logic of this [arrest], which fuels a local fire and turns it into a national blaze. On one hand, they cancel the Acre Theater Festival, which is extremely important for coexistence, and on the other, they generate riots through this arrest."
[Note: Tawfik Jamal was later sent to house arrest by a court in Haifa.]
Yossi Beilin, October 9: Nothing being done to address discrimination against Arab citizens
In reaction to the events in Acre, Meretz MK Yossi Beilin stated that eight years have gone by since the October 2000 riots, and nothing has been done to implement the recommendations of the Orr Commission regarding the unequal status of Israel's Arab citizens. "We are sitting on a powder keg, but somehow we're surprised each time the tension explodes," he commented, calling for a concerted effort to address this issue.
Haim Oron and Zehava Galon, October 10: We mustn't surrender to extremists
Meretz chair, MK Haim Oron, and Meretz MK Zehava Galon have separately called on the Mayor of Acre, Shimon Lancri, not to cancel the annual Acre Theater Festival during Sukkot. Oron said that such a step would be, "an act of surrender to Arab and Jewish extremists". Galon stated that, "the supreme test of the police is to uphold democratic rule in the country and not permit mob rule". The two MKs stressed that extremists on both sides must not be allowed to dictate events.
Haim Oron, October 16: Free the Arab driver from Acre
Meretz chair, MK Haim Oron, has called on the Public Security Minister, requesting that he consider the release of Tawfik Jamal, the driver from Acre who drove into a predominantly Jewish neighborhood on Yom Kippur eve, and who was later arrested on charges of harming religious sensitivities and reckless endangerment. Oron stated: "I don't see the logic of this [arrest], which fuels a local fire and turns it into a national blaze. On one hand, they cancel the Acre Theater Festival, which is extremely important for coexistence, and on the other, they generate riots through this arrest."
[Note: Tawfik Jamal was later sent to house arrest by a court in Haifa.]
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Towards Carfree Cities IX - 2009
The 2009 Towards Carfree Cities conference will head to the capital of the European Union, Brussels!
Gathering to be held from 27th April to 3rd May 2009.
Like to volunteer with the host committee?
Contact: Jeroen Verhoeven, e-mail: jeroen.verhoeven(at)foeeurope(dot)org
Towards Carfree Cities IX - 2009
The 2009 Towards Carfree Cities conference will head to the capital of the European Union, Brussels!
Gathering to be held from 27th April to 3rd May 2009.
Like to volunteer with the host committee?
Contact: Jeroen Verhoeven, e-mail: jeroen.verhoeven(at)foeeurope(dot)org
Financial Crisis Bailout Bill Waives Minority Contracting
In addition to being falsely blamed for sparking the Wall Street meltdown, now those same 'minorities' have been cut out of the contracting that will come out of the $840 bailout bill. We saw Congresswoman Maxine Water grilling Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson about the minority contracting issue at the House hearings, but evidently the Congressional Black Caucus dropped the ball on this important matter. Here is what the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 says:
Title I, Section 107. Contracting Procedures.
Allows the Secretary to waive provisions of the Federal Acquisition Regulation where compelling circumstances make compliance contrary to the public interest. Such waivers must be reported to Congress within 7 days. If provisions related to minority contracting are waived, the Secretary must develop alternate procedures to ensure the inclusion of minority contractors
Allows the Secretary to waive provisions of the Federal Acquisition Regulation where compelling circumstances make compliance contrary to the public interest. Such waivers must be reported to Congress within 7 days. If provisions related to minority contracting are waived, the Secretary must develop alternate procedures to ensure the inclusion of minority contractors
National Black Chamber of Commerce President Harry Alford does not seem to have much faith in these 'alternate procedures.' In fact, Harry is furious about the waiver of minority contracting. And so are we. Harry knows that just as 'minorities' did not create the financial crisis, 'minorities' also, more often than not, get left out of contracting opportunities. We doubt Harry will be holding his breath for Henry to prove him wrong on this experience. (National Black Chamber of Commerce)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
