Writing as a private individual (not in any way claiming to represent the views of Meretz USA on this matter), I had an article published in The Forward, Nov. 13, which criticized aspects of the "Jews Uniting to End the War..." conference of Nov. 23. I questioned why there would be an anti-Iraq war conference at the time that Barack Obama is poised to take office with a pledge to end that conflict, and with the global economic crisis now foremost in most people’s minds. I regret any misunderstandings and upset that my article engendered, but my reception that day was overwhelmingly cordial. (One organizer even thanked me for the "free publicity.")
In his closing remarks, president Robert Kaplan of the Workmen’s Circle acknowledged that recent events had somewhat eclipsed the conference’s theme. Still, it was a serious and largely successful event.
Ann Toback, the new WC executive director, opened with heartfelt remarks in which she mentioned her discomfort at anti-war demonstrations, because of their frequent anti-Israel overtones. This sentiment was shared by some participants throughout the day, but I wish this had been more of an explicit focus and concern for the conference as a whole.
Showing a certain lack of sensitivity, the feisty former member of Congress, Elizabeth Holtzman, made the jolting pronouncement that Jews played a critical role in bringing about the Iraq war and then asked why Israel is "the only country welcoming George Bush." A problem with her first statement is that it highlights the Jewish ethnicity of most prominent neo-conservative backers of the war rather than their politics. The problem with her second point is that it ignores the understandable human psychology involved in a country that was traumatized by several years of attacks that murdered nearly 1,000 civilians, and is thereby comforted by supportive rhetoric from the president of a friendly power. My complaint with Holtzman has nothing to do with my view of the actual issues, on which I am much closer to her than to those she’s criticizing.
Rabbi David Saperstein, head of the Reform movement’s Social Action Center who spoke at the same opening panel, politely took issue with Ms. Holtzman’s sharp tone. He acknowledged that the Iraq war has left both the US and Israel worse off in every way, but the main challenge now is "how to extricate ourselves."
Similarly, in a breakout panel on Israel and Iraq, J Street lobbyist Jeremy Ben-Ami was a study in contrast with the Israel Policy Forum’s M. J. Rosenberg. Ben-Ami’s first year as the founding director of J Street has been remarkably successful in raising money and in electing friendly legislators to Congress. He is informed by his experience to caution against direct attacks on AIPAC, because "you are attacking a community identity" and many of its 100,000 members actually "agree with us" on the issues. Let's "frame our arguments on what we stand for, not on what we are against," he urged. On the other hand, Rosenberg completely buys the Mearsheimer-Walt thesis that equates the "neocons" with the Israel Lobby.
Later that day, Ben-Ami engaged in dialogue with Leslie Cagan, director of the anti-war movement umbrella organization, United for Peace and Justice (UFPJ). Unsurprisingly, Cagan opposes the Obama campaign plank for a gradual phased withdrawal from Iraq, demanding instead an immediate and complete end to the war "now, not a month from now." With these words, she makes the assumption that an immediate US withdrawal would simply end the war, rather than very possibly cause a new spike in inter-communal violence.
Ms. Cagan declared herself a "secular Jew," a likely statement of solidarity with the audience. In response to a comment from the floor on how the anti-Israel framing of anti-war protests has inhibited greater Jewish participation, Cagan admitted to being more interested in opposing manifestations of antisemitism than anti-Israel expressions; but in what may be a significant step for her, she also stated the need to oppose instances of being "anti-the nation of Israel." Taken at face value, this is something of a departure from the UFPJ’s neutral stance regarding a one versus two-state solution for Israel and Palestine and the UFPJ’s inclusion in its coalition of pro-Palestinian militants who advocate a full "right of return" for Palestinians to what is now Israel.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
the explosive growth of the Bank of England balance sheet
First, an apology; I should have looked at the Bank of England balance sheet, but I haven't bothered for about six months. While I was looking elsewhere, the balance sheet exploded. The explosion took place during the five weeks between September 10 and October 22nd. During that period, BoE assets went from about ₤90 billion to almost ₤300 billion, an increase of about 14 percent of GDP. It has fallen back slightly more recently, but the total still stands at ₤263 billion.
So what is happening? The Bank of England went from being a central bank to the interbank market. It is taking deposits and other short term liabilities from commercial banks and then lending it back to the banks short of liquidity.
These operations are just one more example of how sick the UK financial system has become. Without the direct support of the Bank of England, it would collapse.
Krugman on the housing bubble
You have to watch this clip from Paul Krugman. It is only five minutes long, but it explains everything.
A nation of bankers
Here is another one of those scary charts that tells us that the UK economy is in deep trouble. It illustrates UK employment and it tells us two things. First, only one person in ten is employed in manufacturing. Second, two workers in ten are employed in the financial sector. That is right; for every one person actually making something physical, two people are in the money lending business.Here we come to the big unmentionable problem; financial sector employment. As of the end of 2007, 6.5 ,million people were employed in financial services. With the credit crunch, the sector is about to shrink dramatically. If it fell back to the employment levels of 2000, over one million jobs would go. If it shrank to its 1995 level, almost 2 million jobs would disappear.
These are fearful numbers, but how can this sector continue to employ so many people when lending volumes have contracted so sharply? For example, mortgage approvals are down by at least 50 percent in one year. In principle, that should mean that mortgage lending officers are working only half as hard as they were 12 months ago. Or to put it another way, banks should be able to fire half their lending officers without any significant loss of efficiency.
We are about to learn a bitter lesson. Economies should always diversify. The UK became overly dependent on just one industry - financial services. That industry is now in deep trouble. It will contract massively and therefore the upcoming recession will be deeper and more painful than it should have been.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Buy to let - investors keep piling in
It is hard to believe, but the number of buy to let mortgages increased in the third quarter of 2008. The total number of BTL loans stands and 1,134,000. BTL investors now account for 11.1 percent of the mortgage market.The warning signs for BTL investors are screaming red; house prices are falling, and so are rents, why would anyone jump into such an investment? Can someone help me here?
David Cameron's question
I cannot believe that David Cameron, the leader of the opposition even has to ask the following question:
"The question is: does he (the Prime Minister) think it is right for an MP who has apparently done nothing to breach our national security - and everything to inform the public of information they're entitled to know - to have his home and office searched by a dozen counter-terrorist police officers, his phone, blackberry and computers confiscated, and to be arrested and held for nine hours?"
The Damian Green affair is really frightening. New Labour and the Police crossed a line here and they may never retrace their steps. The UK is already the most watched society in the world. Now we have an oppositon leader being arrested for essentially doing his job.
First, the UK government calls Iceland a terrorist state, then it arrests Damian Green and again that ominous word "terror" crops up again. These are very dark days.
"The question is: does he (the Prime Minister) think it is right for an MP who has apparently done nothing to breach our national security - and everything to inform the public of information they're entitled to know - to have his home and office searched by a dozen counter-terrorist police officers, his phone, blackberry and computers confiscated, and to be arrested and held for nine hours?"
The Damian Green affair is really frightening. New Labour and the Police crossed a line here and they may never retrace their steps. The UK is already the most watched society in the world. Now we have an oppositon leader being arrested for essentially doing his job.
First, the UK government calls Iceland a terrorist state, then it arrests Damian Green and again that ominous word "terror" crops up again. These are very dark days.
Flinders Petrie on the Discovery of the Moabite Stone
The following article is now on-line in PDF:
This is (presumably) one of the earliest accounts of the discovery of the Moabite Stone. Due to its age this article is now Public Domain.
This is (presumably) one of the earliest accounts of the discovery of the Moabite Stone. Due to its age this article is now Public Domain.
PRESIDENT'S CORNER: The Death Of An Owl
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By Norris McDonald
I was taking my daily walk to the store to pick up my newspapers and noticed that the tall weeds had been cut along both sides of the sidewalk. I thought it looked very nice and since it was a globally warmed November day, the grasshoppers were just hopping everywhere. I noticed the same owl that seemed to have staked out the two fields across the street from each other and he flew towards the street right into a car. He bounced off the windshield and fell into the street. Evidently it is not that unusual though because another Blog, Journals of an Amateur Naturalist, gives a good explanation for the phenomenon.
He was still just in the road enough so that other cars could run over him so I decided to help before that happened. I thought that even though he would probably never fly again, that I might still save his life. I picked up a rolled newspaper and was going to push him out of the street, but just as I took two steps towards him, he flew up. Unfortunately, he flew right into the path of an SUV and was hit dead on at about 45 miles per hour. This time he was dead. He was in the other lane and I waited for the traffic to clear and placed his dead body over in the brush off the side of the road.
I wondered how such a thing could happen so quickly on such a beautiful day. This Barred Owl, pictured above right, was a magnificient bird having a typical day. And it was over in a flash. Yet tragedy seemed to be added to injury by the second hit. I realize now that if I could have helped the bird, he might have survived. Yet my trying to help got him or her killed. It was just a horrible reminder that sometimes life is just not fair and death could come at any moment.
Wisconsin Burger Research
After Thanksgiving in Chicago I made a trip up to Wisconsin to research burger joints for the revised edition of my book. That's right, I'm already working on an edition that, if the publisher accepts the project, will include an additional 50 burger spots across America.
While doing PR for the book back in May, I ended up on talk radio in Wisconsin. The DJ surprised me with a segment of her show dedicated to call-ins. "Go ahead, give us a call and tell George what he left out of the book!" Fortunately, Wisconsinites are very friendly as a whole so it wasn't really a roast. Instead, I was left with an enormous list of must-try burger joints from every corner of the state.
The plan was to hit 3 suggestions from that show on the Friday after Thanksgiving. I knew one was closed but I wanted to roll by and check it out anyway. The other 2 were Kewpee in Racine and Zwieg's in Watertown. I'll save the details for the book but give some broad strokes on the burgers here.
The Kewpee in downtown Racine was once part of a chain of midwest burger joints not unlike White Castle, White Tower, and its many impersonators of the 1930s (Kewpee of Lima, OH, one of the only remaining outposts, is in my book). I was glad to see fresh ground beef next to the griddle and even happier to see the griddle filled with burgers at 10am. Kewpee employs my favorite method for cooking burgers - the scoop-and-smash method. Ask for cheese and a slice is tossed directly onto the griddle for a few seconds before being transferred to a waiting burger. Genius.
A burger with everything comes with raw chopped onion, sliced pickle, ketchup, and just a little bit of mustard. When I asked owner and grillman Rick why the ketchup outweighed the mustard, he explained, "I've been adjusting the amount of condiments for years and lately it seems people want less mustard," and he shrugged. I think I know why - this thin-patty burger, with its toasted squishy bun, pickle, onion, and a large dollop of ketchup tasted exactly like a McDonald's cheeseburger, except of course, one made of fresh ingredients. It was quite tasty and I had another.
On the way out of Racine I spotted a bakery pushing the local favorite, the Kringle, a large, fresh baked danish. Naturally, I had to stop for one.
At Zwieg's (pronounced 'Zwigs') I met up with local expert burger taster Todd McIlwee. He arrived a few moments before me and secured, smartly, a spot at the counter directly in front of the griddle. Mary and Glenn Zwieg were behind the busy counter turning out burgers (lots to go) for the day-after Thanksgiving crowd. The burgers are cooked on a griddle that was "just replaced" in 1998 (10 years ago). "The old griddle was here for 50 years before that," Mary told me. I didn't really process the info until I spotted a framed news article announcing the big change.
The thin 3oz patties are best enjoyed in duplicate, served on a white squishy bun with grilled onion. Everyone it seems orders theirs with onions. My tasty double was gone in 30 seconds and my clothes smelled of onions for hours afterward.
Only a few miles away in the town of Lake Mills, WI, was a burger curiosity that I knew was closed but had to see in person. If there were an award for the burger joint open the least amount of hours it might be the American Legion Post 67 Hamburger Stand. This miniscule walk-up burger joint is only open, according to the neighboring diner, on Fridays from Memorial Day to Labor Day. I did the math and that amounts to only 14 days a year. I sure hope I hit it right on my return visit next summer.
Wisconsin is a burger-proud state and I always feel welcome there. Who can say no to the endless quantity of cheese, beer, and bratwurst that make the state so appealing? Add burgers to that and I'm already dreaming of my return.
Wisconsin Burger Research
After Thanksgiving in Chicago I made a trip up to Wisconsin to research burger joints for the revised edition of my book. That's right, I'm already working on an edition that, if the publisher accepts the project, will include an additional 50 burger spots across America.
While doing PR for the book back in May, I ended up on talk radio in Wisconsin. The DJ surprised me with a segment of her show dedicated to call-ins. "Go ahead, give us a call and tell George what he left out of the book!" Fortunately, Wisconsinites are very friendly as a whole so it wasn't really a roast. Instead, I was left with an enormous list of must-try burger joints from every corner of the state.
The plan was to hit 3 suggestions from that show on the Friday after Thanksgiving. I knew one was closed but I wanted to roll by and check it out anyway. The other 2 were Kewpee in Racine and Zwieg's in Watertown. I'll save the details for the book but give some broad strokes on the burgers here.
The Kewpee in downtown Racine was once part of a chain of midwest burger joints not unlike White Castle, White Tower, and its many impersonators of the 1930s (Kewpee of Lima, OH, one of the only remaining outposts, is in my book). I was glad to see fresh ground beef next to the griddle and even happier to see the griddle filled with burgers at 10am. Kewpee employs my favorite method for cooking burgers - the scoop-and-smash method. Ask for cheese and a slice is tossed directly onto the griddle for a few seconds before being transferred to a waiting burger. Genius.
A burger with everything comes with raw chopped onion, sliced pickle, ketchup, and just a little bit of mustard. When I asked owner and grillman Rick why the ketchup outweighed the mustard, he explained, "I've been adjusting the amount of condiments for years and lately it seems people want less mustard," and he shrugged. I think I know why - this thin-patty burger, with its toasted squishy bun, pickle, onion, and a large dollop of ketchup tasted exactly like a McDonald's cheeseburger, except of course, one made of fresh ingredients. It was quite tasty and I had another.
On the way out of Racine I spotted a bakery pushing the local favorite, the Kringle, a large, fresh baked danish. Naturally, I had to stop for one.
At Zwieg's (pronounced 'Zwigs') I met up with local expert burger taster Todd McIlwee. He arrived a few moments before me and secured, smartly, a spot at the counter directly in front of the griddle. Mary and Glenn Zwieg were behind the busy counter turning out burgers (lots to go) for the day-after Thanksgiving crowd. The burgers are cooked on a griddle that was "just replaced" in 1998 (10 years ago). "The old griddle was here for 50 years before that," Mary told me. I didn't really process the info until I spotted a framed news article announcing the big change.
The thin 3oz patties are best enjoyed in duplicate, served on a white squishy bun with grilled onion. Everyone it seems orders theirs with onions. My tasty double was gone in 30 seconds and my clothes smelled of onions for hours afterward.
Only a few miles away in the town of Lake Mills, WI, was a burger curiosity that I knew was closed but had to see in person. If there were an award for the burger joint open the least amount of hours it might be the American Legion Post 67 Hamburger Stand. This miniscule walk-up burger joint is only open, according to the neighboring diner, on Fridays from Memorial Day to Labor Day. I did the math and that amounts to only 14 days a year. I sure hope I hit it right on my return visit next summer.
Wisconsin is a burger-proud state and I always feel welcome there. Who can say no to the endless quantity of cheese, beer, and bratwurst that make the state so appealing? Add burgers to that and I'm already dreaming of my return.
Mandelson is our saviour
From Polly Toynbee of the Guardian:
"If Peter Mandelson can seize the banks by the neck and throttle the money out of them, forcing them all to lend at set rates, then salvation is possible and recession could be short and shallow."
Throttle money out of the banks? Seizing them by the neck? Forcing them to lend at set rates? And this is salvation?
"If Peter Mandelson can seize the banks by the neck and throttle the money out of them, forcing them all to lend at set rates, then salvation is possible and recession could be short and shallow."
Throttle money out of the banks? Seizing them by the neck? Forcing them to lend at set rates? And this is salvation?
The urge to spend
Imagine that, shoppers killed a man in their desperation to get to the bargains.
The rot runs very deep......
"A shop worker has died after being knocked to the ground by bargain-hunters who stormed into a superstore in New York's suburbs as it opened. The 34-year-old man, along with several other workers and shoppers, was trampled in the rush at the Wal-Mart store in Valley Stream, Long Island."
(From the BBC)
The rot runs very deep......
"A shop worker has died after being knocked to the ground by bargain-hunters who stormed into a superstore in New York's suburbs as it opened. The 34-year-old man, along with several other workers and shoppers, was trampled in the rush at the Wal-Mart store in Valley Stream, Long Island."
(From the BBC)
hairbrained lending
Jeremy Warner of the Independent seems to understand the problem:
"The disasters of the past year and a half have demonstrated that as the good times roll, supposedly trustworthy and conservatively run banks are transformed into inveterate gamblers and become completely reckless with our money. Yet nationalised banks hardly make for efficient and well-judged allocation of capital either. With the politicians fully in the driving seat, pork barrel projects and hair-brained lending become the order of the day."
"The disasters of the past year and a half have demonstrated that as the good times roll, supposedly trustworthy and conservatively run banks are transformed into inveterate gamblers and become completely reckless with our money. Yet nationalised banks hardly make for efficient and well-judged allocation of capital either. With the politicians fully in the driving seat, pork barrel projects and hair-brained lending become the order of the day."
Mandelson on the banks
Mandelson isn't pleased with UK banks. He thinks they are over-reacting to the credit crunch.
"The banks have experienced a sharp liquidity crisis. They have lent too much at too cheap a price for too long. But they are now overreacting to that, in my opinion, in too conservative and restrictive a way.
They are in danger of substituting one set of problems for another, and in the process doing themselves further damage by under lending and not strengthening their balance sheets and profits in the longer term. They are close to cutting off their noses to spite their faces."
I found this intervention from Mandelson deeply depressing. Nu-Labour have little understanding of banking. Yet Mandelson's comments seem to be paving the way towards direct state intervention in lending decisions. When the government takes control of lending, the UK banking disaster will be turned into a calamity.
See-saw banking
Banking isn't a see-saw, where there is too much lending one day, and not enough the next. It is a regulated activity. If the regulators slacken off, banks will take advantage, which is what they did for the last decade, expanding credit at double digit growth rates.
However, the days of slack supervision are supposedly over. The FSA is asking banks to increase their capital adequacy ratios. In the absence of a massive capital injection, banks have to restrict lending in order to meet FSA targets.
As such, it is hard to see how Mandelson's demands for more lending can be squared with the FSA's push for improved capital ratios.
Bank balance sheets - the smaller, the better
The recent conservatism of banks comes directly from the appalling state of their balance sheets. It is a recognition that banks became too big during the bubble and now need to shrink. It put it another way, banks have too many loans and not enough capital to absorb losses.
Mandelson doesn't seem to appreciate this problem, because if he did he wouldn't be pressurizing Banks to go out and lend. If banks again went on a borrowing binge, leverage ratios would go up, and banks would be even less able to absorb any future rise in default rates.
Big is not always profitable
A bank does not strengthen its balance sheet by increasing lending. Nor does profitability necessarily increase when lending goes up. Banks are profitable when they have strong lending books and low unit labour costs.
Mandelson doesn't seem to appreciate the hazards of an expanding lending book. With today's deteriorating economy, new loans could easily go bad. With increasing default rates, any bank following Mandelson's exhortations might easily find themselves on a fast track to bankruptcy.
State owned banks - the first step towards socialism
Mandelson's comments also scare me.
Now that the government has a major equity holding in the financial sector, it may only be a matter of time before Mandelson instructs state owned banks to begin lending. We could easily see the government introducing credit growth targets, which would be one more crafty step towards socialism.
"The banks have experienced a sharp liquidity crisis. They have lent too much at too cheap a price for too long. But they are now overreacting to that, in my opinion, in too conservative and restrictive a way.
They are in danger of substituting one set of problems for another, and in the process doing themselves further damage by under lending and not strengthening their balance sheets and profits in the longer term. They are close to cutting off their noses to spite their faces."
I found this intervention from Mandelson deeply depressing. Nu-Labour have little understanding of banking. Yet Mandelson's comments seem to be paving the way towards direct state intervention in lending decisions. When the government takes control of lending, the UK banking disaster will be turned into a calamity.
See-saw banking
Banking isn't a see-saw, where there is too much lending one day, and not enough the next. It is a regulated activity. If the regulators slacken off, banks will take advantage, which is what they did for the last decade, expanding credit at double digit growth rates.
However, the days of slack supervision are supposedly over. The FSA is asking banks to increase their capital adequacy ratios. In the absence of a massive capital injection, banks have to restrict lending in order to meet FSA targets.
As such, it is hard to see how Mandelson's demands for more lending can be squared with the FSA's push for improved capital ratios.
Bank balance sheets - the smaller, the better
The recent conservatism of banks comes directly from the appalling state of their balance sheets. It is a recognition that banks became too big during the bubble and now need to shrink. It put it another way, banks have too many loans and not enough capital to absorb losses.
Mandelson doesn't seem to appreciate this problem, because if he did he wouldn't be pressurizing Banks to go out and lend. If banks again went on a borrowing binge, leverage ratios would go up, and banks would be even less able to absorb any future rise in default rates.
Big is not always profitable
A bank does not strengthen its balance sheet by increasing lending. Nor does profitability necessarily increase when lending goes up. Banks are profitable when they have strong lending books and low unit labour costs.
Mandelson doesn't seem to appreciate the hazards of an expanding lending book. With today's deteriorating economy, new loans could easily go bad. With increasing default rates, any bank following Mandelson's exhortations might easily find themselves on a fast track to bankruptcy.
State owned banks - the first step towards socialism
Mandelson's comments also scare me.
Now that the government has a major equity holding in the financial sector, it may only be a matter of time before Mandelson instructs state owned banks to begin lending. We could easily see the government introducing credit growth targets, which would be one more crafty step towards socialism.
Friday, November 28, 2008
no regulation equals no productivity
I don't know if I agree with this quote, but it made be think....
"It is no coincidence that the UK has the least-regulated economy in Europe and is the least productive in the industrialised world"
Prof. Cary Cooper
Guardian 20/8/05
"It is no coincidence that the UK has the least-regulated economy in Europe and is the least productive in the industrialised world"
Prof. Cary Cooper
Guardian 20/8/05
Mortgage arrears - the nightmare
This chart should give every banker in Britain nightmares. It tracks mortgage arrears greater than three months at the end of every year since 1995. In the case of 2008, it takes the number at the end of October. Why is this chart so frightening. It illustrates a simple fact; mortgage arrears right now are not that high. Back in the 1995, almost 400,000 mortgages were in arrears, some 3.7 percent of the total. As of October 2008, only 168,000 are in distress; about 1.4 percent of all mortgages.
Yet, somehow the housing crash so far has wrecked the UK banking system. The RBS, Northern Rock and the Bradford and Bingley have all been nationalized; HBOS was swallowed up by Lloyds, and a string of smaller building societies have disappeared.
There is every reason to think that mortgage arrears will reach the levels seen in the mid-1990s. Can you imagine what a 4 percent mortgage default rate would do to our weakened banking system? Hence, the nightmares, sleepless nights and despair within the banking system. They know what is coming next.
The government better have some deep pockets, because this housing crash is going to be very expensive to clean up.
Government nationalizes the Royal Bank of Scotland
We all knew it was coming.
The Royal Bank of Scotland has been nationalized. Investors took up just 0.24 percent of today's rights issue, leaving the UK government owning almost 60 percent of the beleaguered bank.
State ownership has started badly. The rights issue was offered at 65.5 per share. Today, the share price stood at 52.7p, which immediately racked up a huge multi-billion paper loss for the Treasury.
The reluctance of investors to buy into RBS is perfectly understandable. With Brown and Darling threatening to force banks to lend, and total confusion about dividends policy, no sensible investor would touch this bank with a barge pole.
The Royal Bank of Scotland has been nationalized. Investors took up just 0.24 percent of today's rights issue, leaving the UK government owning almost 60 percent of the beleaguered bank.
State ownership has started badly. The rights issue was offered at 65.5 per share. Today, the share price stood at 52.7p, which immediately racked up a huge multi-billion paper loss for the Treasury.
The reluctance of investors to buy into RBS is perfectly understandable. With Brown and Darling threatening to force banks to lend, and total confusion about dividends policy, no sensible investor would touch this bank with a barge pole.
Tribunal rejects Whitehall approach to 'meta-requests'
The Information Tribunal has rejected a Home Office and Ministry of Justice appeal on the issue of whether FOI requests about other requests (known as 'meta-requests' in Whitehall) can be refused as a whole under s.36 of the FOI Act. The appeal related to a request by Matthew Davis of John Connor Press Associates for internal communications within government departments in relation to FOI requests made by himself or his company. The Tribunal decision notes that Mr Davis believed requests from his company were being treated differently to other members of the public.
In evidence, the Home Office stated ""meta-requests" such as the one in this case are a good example of an arguably permissible, but irresponsible use of the Act." However, the Tribunal found that there is no basis in the FOI Act for treating meta-requests as a special category.
Home Office and Ministry of Justice v IC EA/2008/0062
In evidence, the Home Office stated ""meta-requests" such as the one in this case are a good example of an arguably permissible, but irresponsible use of the Act." However, the Tribunal found that there is no basis in the FOI Act for treating meta-requests as a special category.
"Although we accept that the Appellants are not asking us to treat s.36 as if it can be applied as an absolute exemption in the context of meta-requests, we do find that the Appellants' approach is to invite us to treat meta-requests as a special category of requests. We agree with Ms Proops [counsel for the ICO] that there is no basis under FOIA for us to do that and that there is no separate class of request, which has been called the 'meta-request' in this case. We consider that Parliament intended that meta-requests should be dealt with in the same way as any other requests otherwise Parliament would have provided for this, which in our view they have not done so."The Tribunal also found that it was not prepared to allow the late claiming of other exemptions in this case, except where s.40(2) had been claimed.
"We have considered all the public interest factors in the circumstances of the way s.36 exemption has been applied in this case and find that the IC has not erred in deciding that the public interest in maintaining the exemption in s.36 does not outweigh the public interest in disclosure of the information requested as a whole. We have given strong weight to the public interest in knowing that public authorities deal with FOI requests properly and lawfully and do not discriminate against requesters or between requesters...It is vital to be seen to show that the fundamental compliance processes of the Act are being observed."
"We would observe that the Tribunal can appreciate the particular concerns that some meta-requests could pose for public authorities. However as Ms Proops indicates FOIA provides a number of mechanisms for dealing with such concerns should they arise...Public authorities need to appreciate that if the exemptions under ss.9, 12 and 14 cannot be claimed then it will be necessary to review the request in detail to decide whether any Part II exemptions can be claimed."
Home Office and Ministry of Justice v IC EA/2008/0062
ALE ON TAP AT 2008 PITTSBURGH BREWFEST!
The taps were flowing with Yuengling all day at The Pittsburgh Brewfest this year! Yuengling partnered with Fuhrer Wholesale Company to attend this annual event. It was one of the first brewing events where we got to present our Lord Chesterfield Ale brand. Lord Chesterfield made its return to draught packaging in September of this year. The Ale was well received by all, and Fuhrer was well prepared for the event. They had two taps going at the same time to keep up with thirsty attendees waiting in line for their Ale samples! If you live in the Pittsburgh area and did not make it out to this year’s festival, you don’t have to wait until next year to get your Chesterfield Ale on draught; there are now over 40 bars and restaurants serving cold pints of ale in your area. We would like to thank all of the Yuengling fans who came out to the event this year. Also, a great thank you to Pete Fazio of Yuengling along with Fuhrer Sales Manager Chris Wagner and Fuhrer Sales Rep. Jeff Lander for their participation in making this event a success.
The Pittsburgh Brewfest is organized by the Pittsburgh Rugby Club and benefits PLEA (Programs for Living, Education, and Advocacy.) The 2008 event featured over 60 different craft brews available for sampling. For more information on this event you can visit the Pittsburgh Rugby Club website at: http://www.pghrugby.com/brewfest.html
The Pittsburgh Brewfest is organized by the Pittsburgh Rugby Club and benefits PLEA (Programs for Living, Education, and Advocacy.) The 2008 event featured over 60 different craft brews available for sampling. For more information on this event you can visit the Pittsburgh Rugby Club website at: http://www.pghrugby.com/brewfest.html
Average family spends £459 a week
The Office of National Statistics has just released a household survey tracking expenditure patterns in 2007. Supposedly, the average family spends £459 a week or about £23900 a year.I am always surprised how much the average family spends on transportation. It turns out to be the largest single expenditure item.
Likewise, I am a little skeptical about the surprisingly low ranking for alcohol and cigarettes. The ONS reckons that the average household spends just over ten quid a week.
All I can say is that the ONS wasn't thinking of my house when they compiled these numbers.
November nationwide house price index
The November fall in house prices was only 0.4 percent; the lowest since the crash began last year. Have we hit the bottom already?
Spin won't save the London property market
Here are the highlights of the latest London Residential Review from Frank Knight. The report makes three points; the first is based on the facts; the second ignores the facts; and the third is wishful thinking.
Prices are continuing to fall in the capital. In some locations they are already 20% down on a year ago, although 10% is the general tone. Transaction volumes are 50% to 60% lower over the same period, and the market paralysis shows little sign of abating.
The super-prime market (£10m+) has seen rising values until recently. While our view is that price growth in this sector has now run out of steam, transaction volumes should at least continue to hold up compared with the wider market.
Rental growth has slowed recently and in several areas has turned negative. Significantly lower capital values, and relatively stable rents, will lead to improved investment yields for those looking to enter the market in 2009. There are lots of bargain hunters circling the market, but for now most are “just looking”.
The first point needs little comment. The London market is crashing and everyone knows it. The numbers are stark; prices down 10-20 percent, with volumes down 50-60 percent. That means grim pickings for london estate agents.
The second point recognises that the "super-prime" market is on the turn. However, Frank Knight thinks that volumes will continue to hold up. Dream on, Frank. This crash is all about wealth compression. If you will allow me to overload on adjectives, the rich are getting poorer much faster than the poor are getting poorer. The rich have just seem massive falls in equity prices; and those high end sales neeed buyers who can really deliver the cash on settlement day. That means the wealthy need to have some serious wealth to make the transaction go through.
As for the third point, next year's bargain hunter will be a superprime loser in 2010. Recession means lower incomes and more unemployment; rental growth follows wage growth, and the numbers are going the wrong way for buy-to-let.
Besides, quoting rental yield is a little misleading, what really matters is total yield, which is rents plus capital gain/loss. Putting it in simplier terms, why would anyone want to own a property when rental growth is likely to be flat or even negative, while the price of the asset is almost certainly going to fall. It is a template for losing money.
The first point needs little comment. The London market is crashing and everyone knows it. The numbers are stark; prices down 10-20 percent, with volumes down 50-60 percent. That means grim pickings for london estate agents.
The second point recognises that the "super-prime" market is on the turn. However, Frank Knight thinks that volumes will continue to hold up. Dream on, Frank. This crash is all about wealth compression. If you will allow me to overload on adjectives, the rich are getting poorer much faster than the poor are getting poorer. The rich have just seem massive falls in equity prices; and those high end sales neeed buyers who can really deliver the cash on settlement day. That means the wealthy need to have some serious wealth to make the transaction go through.
As for the third point, next year's bargain hunter will be a superprime loser in 2010. Recession means lower incomes and more unemployment; rental growth follows wage growth, and the numbers are going the wrong way for buy-to-let.
Besides, quoting rental yield is a little misleading, what really matters is total yield, which is rents plus capital gain/loss. Putting it in simplier terms, why would anyone want to own a property when rental growth is likely to be flat or even negative, while the price of the asset is almost certainly going to fall. It is a template for losing money.
The interest rate dilemma
The International Herald Tribune pointed out one of the most important contradictions in UK economic policy. It concerns the epicentre of our problems, the housing market:
"Britain needs to reinvigorate its mortgage markets to save its economy and its banks. The problem is, few want to borrow and there is precious little money to lend.
British property prices are down about 15 percent in a year and mortgage approvals are down 52 percent. Given the freeze in the securitization market and the scarcity of savings in Britain, new net mortgage lending may even fall below zero in 2009."
The problem boils down to interest rates. If lending rates come down, then so will deposit rates. This will, of course, discourage savers from putting their money into banks.
If lending rates go up, banks have more room to increase deposit rates. This might encourage more saving, but with higher mortgage rates, the housing market is likely to fall further.
In the past, banks squared this circle by relying on the wholesale money market. With mortgage backed securities, banks could obtain funding from non-deposit sources. That option has now disappeared; too many investors lost too much money. It will take a long time before investors are ready to go down that road again.
What can Brown, Darling and the rest of the New Labour crew do? If anyone has an answer, please let us know.
"Britain needs to reinvigorate its mortgage markets to save its economy and its banks. The problem is, few want to borrow and there is precious little money to lend.
British property prices are down about 15 percent in a year and mortgage approvals are down 52 percent. Given the freeze in the securitization market and the scarcity of savings in Britain, new net mortgage lending may even fall below zero in 2009."
The problem boils down to interest rates. If lending rates come down, then so will deposit rates. This will, of course, discourage savers from putting their money into banks.
If lending rates go up, banks have more room to increase deposit rates. This might encourage more saving, but with higher mortgage rates, the housing market is likely to fall further.
In the past, banks squared this circle by relying on the wholesale money market. With mortgage backed securities, banks could obtain funding from non-deposit sources. That option has now disappeared; too many investors lost too much money. It will take a long time before investors are ready to go down that road again.
What can Brown, Darling and the rest of the New Labour crew do? If anyone has an answer, please let us know.
New Report Reveals Counter-Terrorism Effects on Media in Europe
Privacy International
For Immediate Release
25 November 2008
A new report conducted by Privacy International for the Council of Europe Media and Information Society Division reveals effects of new counter-terrorism laws on media and free expression rights in European countries. The report “Speaking of Terror” examines how the “war on terror” has affected access to information, the growth of incitement, glorification and “extremism” restrictions on speech, blocking of internet sites, increased surveillance of journalists and limits on protection of journalists’ sources. The report finds that the laws have already seriously affected freedom of expression while providing little benefit in fighting terrorism.
The report also examines the roles of the United Nations Security Council, European Union and Council of Europe in promoting new laws while paying little attention to human rights.
Summary of findings:
For more information, contact:
David Banisar, Director, FOI Project, Privacy International
privacyint@privacy.org, +44 (0)208.123.7933
Privacy International website
For Immediate Release
25 November 2008
A new report conducted by Privacy International for the Council of Europe Media and Information Society Division reveals effects of new counter-terrorism laws on media and free expression rights in European countries. The report “Speaking of Terror” examines how the “war on terror” has affected access to information, the growth of incitement, glorification and “extremism” restrictions on speech, blocking of internet sites, increased surveillance of journalists and limits on protection of journalists’ sources. The report finds that the laws have already seriously affected freedom of expression while providing little benefit in fighting terrorism.
The report also examines the roles of the United Nations Security Council, European Union and Council of Europe in promoting new laws while paying little attention to human rights.
Summary of findings:
International bodies including the Council of Europe (CoE) and the European Union (EU) have adopted many international agreements that either ignore or only pay scant attention to fundamental human rights and the importance of a free media. Their agendas are often driven by those countries that are most aggressive in adopting expansive counter-terrorism laws including the UK, US and Russia. The role of European institutions such as the EU and the CoE have resulted in greater adoption and harmonization of these laws than most other regions.“Speaking of Terror: A survey of the effects of counter-terrorism legislation on freedom of the media in Europe” is available here.
New laws on prohibiting speech that is considered “extremist” or supporting of terrorism have been a particular problem. These laws are used in many jurisdictions to suppress political and controversial speech. Newspapers have been closed and journalists arrested. Web sites are often taken down or blocked.
State secret and national security laws are regularly being used against journalists and their sources even as access to information laws are widely accepted and adopted across the CoE. There are also growing restrictions imposed on photographers not based in law.
Protection of journalists’ sources are often undermined by governments seeking to identify officials who provide information even though they are widely recognized both in national laws and in decisions of the European Court of Human Rights. Newsrooms are often searched.
New anti-terrorism laws are giving authorities wide powers to conduct surveillance. Other new laws impose technical and administrative requirements on the ability to intercept communications and keeping information. Of particular concern are data retention laws which require the routine surveillance of all mobile and Internet users that can be used to easily identify sources and journalists' investigations.
For more information, contact:
David Banisar, Director, FOI Project, Privacy International
privacyint@privacy.org, +44 (0)208.123.7933
Privacy International website
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Obama Adminstration and the Congressional Black Caucus
On Environment
The 42 members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) and President-Elect Barack Obama are reasonably compatible on environmental issues. Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA), who represents California's 9th congressional district in San Francisco's Bay Area, has been elected Chairwoman of the CBC. These two leaders will have very interesting environmental issues to address and global warming will be at the top of the list. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and CBC Chairwoman Lee are not only geographically close but very close on environmental issues as well. It will be interesting to see how CBC members supporting nuclear power, such as House Majority Whip James Clyburn and Texas Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson, will interact with CBC Chairwoman Lee, who opposes nuclear power.
Although we do not necessarily agree with some of the environmental issues selected by the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) in their voting charts, the CBC consistently scores in the upper eighties or lower nineties and are usually the highest voting caucus in Congress decade after decade. LCV also endorsed President-Elect Obama during the campaign. The CBC opposed President Bush on the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Obama voted for it). The CBC also opposed the Bush administration's Clear Skies Initiative. Obama voted against the Clear Skies Initiative legislation while a member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. The tied vote along party lines with a couple of Republicans joining the Democrats killed the measure. Senator Obama and the CBC opposed Bush administration proposals for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve and the Healthy Forest Initiative.
The 42 members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) and President-Elect Barack Obama are reasonably compatible on environmental issues. Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA), who represents California's 9th congressional district in San Francisco's Bay Area, has been elected Chairwoman of the CBC. These two leaders will have very interesting environmental issues to address and global warming will be at the top of the list. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and CBC Chairwoman Lee are not only geographically close but very close on environmental issues as well. It will be interesting to see how CBC members supporting nuclear power, such as House Majority Whip James Clyburn and Texas Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson, will interact with CBC Chairwoman Lee, who opposes nuclear power.
Although we do not necessarily agree with some of the environmental issues selected by the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) in their voting charts, the CBC consistently scores in the upper eighties or lower nineties and are usually the highest voting caucus in Congress decade after decade. LCV also endorsed President-Elect Obama during the campaign. The CBC opposed President Bush on the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Obama voted for it). The CBC also opposed the Bush administration's Clear Skies Initiative. Obama voted against the Clear Skies Initiative legislation while a member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. The tied vote along party lines with a couple of Republicans joining the Democrats killed the measure. Senator Obama and the CBC opposed Bush administration proposals for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve and the Healthy Forest Initiative.
The CBC is not monolithic in its views on environmental policy. There will clearly be disagreements between President Obama and the CBC just as there are differences within the CBC. One thing is clear though, the CBC and President Obama will do the best they can to assure that America will have as clean an environment as possible. Another item is certain too: we need African American ownership of energy infrastructure and products, including coal, oil refineries, natural gas, power plants, oil, solar and wind power farms.
AAEA has some questions for the CBC and the Obama administration:
AAEA has some questions for the CBC and the Obama administration:
1) Will the Obama administration be better than the Clinton administration on environmental issues?
2) Will the Obama administration and the CBC promote serious environmental justice legislation?
3) Which sector is more segregated, the GOP or the environmental movement?
4) Why do you think Blacks do not own any part of the energy infrastructure in the United States?
5) Does global warming have a more serious impact on Black communities than majority communities?
To: On Energy
Congressional Black Caucus & Obama Administration
On Energy
The 42 members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) and President-Elect Barack Obama are reasonably compatible on energy issues. Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA), who represents California's 9th congressional district in San Francisco's Bay Area, has been elected Chairwoman of the CBC. Although Senator Obama missed the vote on the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (H.R. 6) (on the campaign trail), he voted for the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, which was included in the financial bailout bill (H.R. 1424: Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008).
Senator Barack Obama voted for the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (H.R. 6-different from the other one) and so did 43% of the CBC. Before Obama was elected to the Senate, 92% of the CBC opposed drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR). The majority of the CBC (57%) supported Yucca Mountain as the repository for the storage of spent nuclear waste.
It will be interesting to see how President Obama and the CBC will end up on the energy issues that will be facing the 111th Congress. They will easily agree on Green Jobs and supporting alternative technologies. But how will they fare on coal, nuclear, natural gas, liquefied natural gas and oil issues? It will alsobe interesting to see how the Obama administration and the CBC will agree or disagree on the components of global warming mitigation legislation. The CBC is not monolithic in its views on energy policy. There will clearly be disagreements between President Obama and the CBC just as there are differences within the CBC. One thing is clear though, the CBC and President Obama will do the best they can to assure that America remains dynamic in its production and delivery of energy.
Note: AAEA President Norris McDonald organized the first CBC Energy Braintrust for the late Congressman Mickey Leland in 1981.
To: On Environment
Why Anatole drives me crazy
I can't stop reading Anatole Kaletsky, the Times economics columnist. I know it bad for me. Almost everything he writes drives me crazy. He is doing my head in.
During the summer, he proclaimed that the US economy was just fine. Then came the failures of Freddie and Fannie, the Lehman bankruptcy and the near total meltdown of the world's financial markets.
The "US is just fine" line had to go. So Anatole peddled a different explanation; the global financial crisis was all down to one man; Henry Paulson. The US Treasury secretary screwed up; if only Paulson had acted more decisively, saved Freddie and Fannie, the world economy would still be growing. If only the all the problems of world could be reduced to such simple explanations.
Today, Kaletsky stopped playing the blame game and loudly endorsed Darling's borrowing binge:
"The Chancellor is right to cut taxes and to spend and borrow through the recession, undeterred by rising deficit projections and the build-up of public debt."
Like everything that Anatole writes, he provokes more questions than answers. Take the statement above as an example. The UK government needs to float about ₤150 billion of new debt in the next 15 months. Who does Kaletsky think will buy this debt? Does he think that long term interest rates will be unaffected by this massive increase in the supply of financial assets? Had he considered the possibility that yields on government debt might start to climb? Can he see the link between government debt yields and corporate borrowing costs? Would he accept that higher government borrowing might actually kill off the recovery that the Darling spendfest is supposed to deliver?
In Anatole's world, today is the only thing that matters. The UK needs positive economic growth right now, this very instant. The long term consequences of any policy does not matter. Later generations can deal with public debt we contract today. If Anatole could think of a way, he would also push today's banking crisis onto our children too. In fact, Anatole would endorse any policy that ensured that he, and his generation of middle aged debt-serfs, could maintain their ill-deserved way of life.
The real problem with Anatole is that he can't be ignored. He articulates the muddled thinking behind UK economy policy. When required, he champions misplaced optimism. Where necessary, he conspires with Brown in blame displacement for this mess; peddling the line that the UK's economic ills are down to some vague global crisis rather than policy mistakes. He is quick to endorse Darling's mad plans to buy his way out of recession. He will argue for the ridiculous line that the bank of England's policy rate should be negative in real terms, regardless of its catastrophic effect on long term savings.
Perhaps, this is why I keep reading his column.
During the summer, he proclaimed that the US economy was just fine. Then came the failures of Freddie and Fannie, the Lehman bankruptcy and the near total meltdown of the world's financial markets.
The "US is just fine" line had to go. So Anatole peddled a different explanation; the global financial crisis was all down to one man; Henry Paulson. The US Treasury secretary screwed up; if only Paulson had acted more decisively, saved Freddie and Fannie, the world economy would still be growing. If only the all the problems of world could be reduced to such simple explanations.
Today, Kaletsky stopped playing the blame game and loudly endorsed Darling's borrowing binge:
"The Chancellor is right to cut taxes and to spend and borrow through the recession, undeterred by rising deficit projections and the build-up of public debt."
Like everything that Anatole writes, he provokes more questions than answers. Take the statement above as an example. The UK government needs to float about ₤150 billion of new debt in the next 15 months. Who does Kaletsky think will buy this debt? Does he think that long term interest rates will be unaffected by this massive increase in the supply of financial assets? Had he considered the possibility that yields on government debt might start to climb? Can he see the link between government debt yields and corporate borrowing costs? Would he accept that higher government borrowing might actually kill off the recovery that the Darling spendfest is supposed to deliver?
In Anatole's world, today is the only thing that matters. The UK needs positive economic growth right now, this very instant. The long term consequences of any policy does not matter. Later generations can deal with public debt we contract today. If Anatole could think of a way, he would also push today's banking crisis onto our children too. In fact, Anatole would endorse any policy that ensured that he, and his generation of middle aged debt-serfs, could maintain their ill-deserved way of life.
The real problem with Anatole is that he can't be ignored. He articulates the muddled thinking behind UK economy policy. When required, he champions misplaced optimism. Where necessary, he conspires with Brown in blame displacement for this mess; peddling the line that the UK's economic ills are down to some vague global crisis rather than policy mistakes. He is quick to endorse Darling's mad plans to buy his way out of recession. He will argue for the ridiculous line that the bank of England's policy rate should be negative in real terms, regardless of its catastrophic effect on long term savings.
Perhaps, this is why I keep reading his column.
Paint Downing Street blue
The ghost of Stalin visits Gordon Brown in a dream. Brown takes advantage of the apparition and asks Stalin for some advice. "The UK economy is on the edge of total meltdown Comrade Stalin, what should I do?"
Stalin takes a puff on his pipe and says; "I would advise two measures; first, round up all the bankers in the UK and shoot them. Second, paint Downing Street blue"
"Why should I paint Downing Street blue?" Brown asks.
"Ha, that is what I thought; the first measure needs no explanation".
Stalin takes a puff on his pipe and says; "I would advise two measures; first, round up all the bankers in the UK and shoot them. Second, paint Downing Street blue"
"Why should I paint Downing Street blue?" Brown asks.
"Ha, that is what I thought; the first measure needs no explanation".
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
James Dunn on Paul's Understanding of the Death of Jesus
The following article is now on-line in PDF:
Thanks to Sean for his recommendation of this article.
Thanks to Sean for his recommendation of this article.
Clash of the titans - the UK versus the US
The US and UK housing markets - the two great bubbles of our time - are in a race to the bottom. Which country will produce the biggest decline in house prices.The US got off to a quick start. Their crash began in the summer of 2006. According to the Case-Shiller composite 20 index, prices have fallen about 22 percent. An impressive start, which will be followed up by further dramatic declines in the years to come.
The UK, on the other hand, managed to keep their bubble going until October 2007. However, the credit crunch sprang up, and despite the best efforts of Brown, Darling and King, the bubble was over. Prices are down 16 percent from their peak.
So, who is going to win the title of the greatest housing bubble in history. My money is on the UK. Our bubble was bigger, longer and nastier than anything produced by our American cousins. This is one race we are going to win.
The cost of equity, huge government deficits and investment
Suppose a firm wanted to expand and fund some new investment, say in some new equipment. It could raise the money by a) borrowing from the bank, b) using some of its past profiits, c) issuing corporate bonds, or d) issuing new equity (i.e. shares).The Bank of England provide a handy little data series tracking the cost of that last option. They published the series in their last inflation report, and it is republished in the above chart.
The message from the data is simple enough; firms are finding it increasingly costly to fund new investment through equity issuance. This is how the Bank of England described the situation:
"Conditions in the corporate debt and equity markets have also worsened significantly since the August Report, as the economic outlook deteriorated and investors’ appetite for risk diminished. International equity prices fell, driving up the cost of corporate equity issuance."
As for the other options; yields on corporate bonds have also risen, while corporate profitability has taken a dive. This leaves bank lending, and we all know what has happened there.
If firms do not invest, it is hard to see how the economy can sustainably grow. Encouraging the debt-serfs to buy crap doesn't directly increase the productive capacity of the UK economy.
This brings us back to Darling's borrowing binge; if the government borrows around 8.5 percent of GDP next year, then long term interest rates will rise, crowding out private sector investment. How will huge governmetn deficits improve "investors appetite for risk"?
Woolworths - the end is close
I get very squeamish when I encounter stories like this one. Woolworths looks like it is about to sink. Around 30,000 people will lose their jobs, with another 20,000 retirees facing the prospect of losing their pensions. While I might understand the logic of the market, I really hate hearing stories of mass redundancies.
Mandelson has called in Woolworth's bankers to ask why the company is being pushed into admininstration.
It is an fascinating question. Where would an answer start? I don't think it would be enough to simply say that consumer spending has just fallen off a cliff. Nor would it be enough to say that consumers have disappeared because of the credit crunch.
No, the answer would have to go much deeper than that. It would have to start with the appalling policy errors that generated a massive credit bubble, which in turn, led to the horrific crash that now stands before us.
If Mandelson is looking for the real answer to his question, he shouldn't be asking Woolworth's bankers, he should be asking the clowns that sit with him around the cabinet table.
Mandelson has called in Woolworth's bankers to ask why the company is being pushed into admininstration.
It is an fascinating question. Where would an answer start? I don't think it would be enough to simply say that consumer spending has just fallen off a cliff. Nor would it be enough to say that consumers have disappeared because of the credit crunch.
No, the answer would have to go much deeper than that. It would have to start with the appalling policy errors that generated a massive credit bubble, which in turn, led to the horrific crash that now stands before us.
If Mandelson is looking for the real answer to his question, he shouldn't be asking Woolworth's bankers, he should be asking the clowns that sit with him around the cabinet table.
GIFTS FOR YOUR LIST
That infamous shopping day is almost upon us... two more days until Black Friday. When the reality of the annual gift-giving season actually hits. When we’re officially launched into the holiday shopping frenzy.
There’s no reason to panic this year. Yuengling has an extensive online Gift Shop where you can do your holiday shopping any time, 24 hours a day/7 days a week. Avoid the crowds, the craze, and even the parking when you shop our online store. Enjoy a cold beer at your computer and browse our large selection of Yuengling gear, specialty items and brewery collectibles. We have quality gift items that will please even the hardest people to shop for.
Whether they’ve been naughty or nice, you’ll find something for everyone on your list at http://www.yuengling.com/shop.htm.
There’s no reason to panic this year. Yuengling has an extensive online Gift Shop where you can do your holiday shopping any time, 24 hours a day/7 days a week. Avoid the crowds, the craze, and even the parking when you shop our online store. Enjoy a cold beer at your computer and browse our large selection of Yuengling gear, specialty items and brewery collectibles. We have quality gift items that will please even the hardest people to shop for.
Whether they’ve been naughty or nice, you’ll find something for everyone on your list at http://www.yuengling.com/shop.htm.
A Review of Emergent Church Bible "The Voice" Part 1
I came across this review of the The Voice - which is being promoted by Brian D. Mclaren and others in the emerging church movement. It looks like developing into an interesting series. Well worth a read.
HT: Anton Hein
Cabinet secretary's evidence in Iraq cabinet minutes appeal
Sam Coates, The Times' chief political correspondent, has posted a transcript of Sir Gus O'Donnell's evidence before the Information Tribunal on his blog The Red Box.
Sam Coates, The Times' chief political correspondent, has posted a transcript of Sir Gus O'Donnell's evidence before the Information Tribunal on his blog The Red Box.
Gus O'Donnell on leaks, secrecy and why Alastair Campbell was wrong to publish his diariesRead the entire transcript on Sam's blog.
In a drab office block in Southwark yesterday civil service head Augustine Thomas O'Donnell - Sir Gus to most - took the witness stand at the Information Tribunal to argue why minutes of Cabinet discussions before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 should not be released.
For FOI watchers and civil service nerds, I've posted as full a transcript as was possible below.
Defending his decision not to release the documents in an age where confidential Cabinet discussions are "frequently" (his word) leaked in memoirs, biographies and in the media, he took aim against Alastair Campbell for his diaries The Blair Years.
I made clear to Alastair in the letter I wrote that I very much regret this book is being published at all. I was against it. I thought that it was wrong of someone in the position of Alastair to be publishing what he did. It’s one thing for ministers, another for special advisers.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
US housing crash - 22 percent down and counting
The Shiller Case index is down 22 percent from its July 2006 peak. Prices have fallen back to their April 2004 level.Aren't house prices supposed to always go up. Or did I miss something?
US Fed announces $800bn stimulus
To tell the truth, I am getting a little bored by these stimulus packages. They are now appearing at the rate of one day.
Today it was the Fed's turn to produce a big number and splash it about town. This time, consumers will be the lucky beneficiaries. The Fed will use $200 billion to buy up credit card debt. The remaining $600 billion will evaporate in a grey haze of toxic mortgage debt.
Unfortunately, the full implications of these kind of government initiatives is rarely fully understood. In this particular case, the US government is going to use taxpayers money to help people use their credit cards. Remember, this is a country that doesn't have universal healthcare or an adequate unemployment benefit.
It is all about priorities, the sick can go to hell. The US needs spenders, not shirkers.
It all goes to prove one thing. Being a UK taxpayer might be bad, being a US taxpayer is definitely worse.
Today it was the Fed's turn to produce a big number and splash it about town. This time, consumers will be the lucky beneficiaries. The Fed will use $200 billion to buy up credit card debt. The remaining $600 billion will evaporate in a grey haze of toxic mortgage debt.
Unfortunately, the full implications of these kind of government initiatives is rarely fully understood. In this particular case, the US government is going to use taxpayers money to help people use their credit cards. Remember, this is a country that doesn't have universal healthcare or an adequate unemployment benefit.
It is all about priorities, the sick can go to hell. The US needs spenders, not shirkers.
It all goes to prove one thing. Being a UK taxpayer might be bad, being a US taxpayer is definitely worse.
Amy Goodman is great, but not so good
Meretz USA endorsed the Workmen’s Circle and Shalom Center’s "Jews Uniting to End the War and Heal America" conference of Nov. 23. And our immediate past president, Lilly Rivlin, participated in a panel on "Impacts of the Iraq War and Peace on the Broader Middle East." Taken as a whole, it was a very impressive and successful event, filling its Manhattan venue to near capacity with about 350 registrants.
The conference concluded with a keynote address by "Democracy Now" newscaster Amy Goodman – a bravura performance received with a standing ovation. Ms. Goodman was funny, incisive, discursive and provocative as she moved from the thrill of Barack Obama’s election ("the community organizer in chief") to the battles of Frederick Douglass and Rosa Parks against slavery and Jim Crow, and far beyond. She discussed her background as a granddaughter of an Orthodox rabbi, "davening" [praying] in the women’s balcony and how she and her brother recently visited their ancestral home country of Estonia and the Lithuanian setting where her grandfather studied in a yeshiva.
Her first mention of caution, of the need to counter conservative influences on Obama, was to refer to the nasty and thoughtless comment by the father of Obama’s new chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel: "Obviously, he’ll influence the President to be pro-Israel. Why wouldn’t he? What is he, an Arab? He’s not going to be mopping the floors at the White House."
She elided the two last sentences together to make the statement overtly racist. I can’t say that she meant to misquote Benjamin Emanuel (a pediatrician who grew up in pre-state Israel and was a right-wing Irgun supporter as a youth), but we don’t know from the syntax if he actually meant to emphasize that his son would be pro-Israel and that he’d be there to influence policy (not to mop the floors), or to insult Arabs by contending that they would only be in the White House to mop the floors. She didn’t blame the son for the father’s transgression, but made an issue in claiming that Rahm Emanuel took a week to apologize directly to the Arab community. ("From the fullness of my heart, I personally apologize on behalf of my family and me. These are not the values upon which I was raised or those of my family.")
Still, in a marvelous turn, Goodman revealed the startling fact that Donald Rumsfeld is the current owner of a former Maryland plantation called Mt. Misery, where Frederick Douglass was once tormented as a slave. And she recalled recently interviewing South Africa’s Bishop Desmond Tutu as he proclaimed his joy at Obama’s victory; then, she said, Tutu immediately started "talking about Gaza. After all, he grew up in apartheid South Africa."
Continuing in a brilliantly seamless stream of consciousness, she described how she and her two producers were arrested and manhandled by the police outside the Republican National Convention. She artfully interweaved the fact that Israel has recently closed off the Gaza Strip to journalists, as its blockade tightens. She entirely neglected to mention the new wave of Palestinian rocket attacks launched in response to Israel’s action against a terrorist attempt to tunnel into Israel.
Even recounting these interrelated actions and counteractions shows how complicated Israel’s situation is, but Amy Goodman consistently examines only one side – the damage done to Palestinians and their supporters. Ms. Goodman is absolutely correct in intoning some great aphorisms: "media covers power, [but] is not for power"; "media is the Fourth Estate, not for the state"; and "only through knowing can we repair." But her extreme anti-Israel bias makes it impossible for her to be a fair and credible source of news and analysis relating to Israel. This is a shame, considering how earnest and well-meaning she surely is in her heart of hearts.
Since there was no Q & A following her speech, there was no opportunity for a public dialogue with her. I may return to say more on this conference. There was a lot to reflect upon. Happy Thanksgiving!
The conference concluded with a keynote address by "Democracy Now" newscaster Amy Goodman – a bravura performance received with a standing ovation. Ms. Goodman was funny, incisive, discursive and provocative as she moved from the thrill of Barack Obama’s election ("the community organizer in chief") to the battles of Frederick Douglass and Rosa Parks against slavery and Jim Crow, and far beyond. She discussed her background as a granddaughter of an Orthodox rabbi, "davening" [praying] in the women’s balcony and how she and her brother recently visited their ancestral home country of Estonia and the Lithuanian setting where her grandfather studied in a yeshiva.
Her first mention of caution, of the need to counter conservative influences on Obama, was to refer to the nasty and thoughtless comment by the father of Obama’s new chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel: "Obviously, he’ll influence the President to be pro-Israel. Why wouldn’t he? What is he, an Arab? He’s not going to be mopping the floors at the White House."
She elided the two last sentences together to make the statement overtly racist. I can’t say that she meant to misquote Benjamin Emanuel (a pediatrician who grew up in pre-state Israel and was a right-wing Irgun supporter as a youth), but we don’t know from the syntax if he actually meant to emphasize that his son would be pro-Israel and that he’d be there to influence policy (not to mop the floors), or to insult Arabs by contending that they would only be in the White House to mop the floors. She didn’t blame the son for the father’s transgression, but made an issue in claiming that Rahm Emanuel took a week to apologize directly to the Arab community. ("From the fullness of my heart, I personally apologize on behalf of my family and me. These are not the values upon which I was raised or those of my family.")
Still, in a marvelous turn, Goodman revealed the startling fact that Donald Rumsfeld is the current owner of a former Maryland plantation called Mt. Misery, where Frederick Douglass was once tormented as a slave. And she recalled recently interviewing South Africa’s Bishop Desmond Tutu as he proclaimed his joy at Obama’s victory; then, she said, Tutu immediately started "talking about Gaza. After all, he grew up in apartheid South Africa."
Continuing in a brilliantly seamless stream of consciousness, she described how she and her two producers were arrested and manhandled by the police outside the Republican National Convention. She artfully interweaved the fact that Israel has recently closed off the Gaza Strip to journalists, as its blockade tightens. She entirely neglected to mention the new wave of Palestinian rocket attacks launched in response to Israel’s action against a terrorist attempt to tunnel into Israel.
Even recounting these interrelated actions and counteractions shows how complicated Israel’s situation is, but Amy Goodman consistently examines only one side – the damage done to Palestinians and their supporters. Ms. Goodman is absolutely correct in intoning some great aphorisms: "media covers power, [but] is not for power"; "media is the Fourth Estate, not for the state"; and "only through knowing can we repair." But her extreme anti-Israel bias makes it impossible for her to be a fair and credible source of news and analysis relating to Israel. This is a shame, considering how earnest and well-meaning she surely is in her heart of hearts.
Since there was no Q & A following her speech, there was no opportunity for a public dialogue with her. I may return to say more on this conference. There was a lot to reflect upon. Happy Thanksgiving!
UK investment collapses
Oh lordy, this means trouble. In the 3rd quarter of 2008, UK investment fell by almost 6 percent. Those early BoE rate cuts had absolutely no effect on capital formation.
Monetary policy is broken, my friends. The MPC have lost control.
Lets nationalize everything.
I can't keep up; I need help.
Here is another mad idea; this time from the FT. Central banks should buy up "underpriced" assets. No, we are not talking toxic mortgage debt, we mean all kinds of assets, including equity.
"Since the downturn is now in the broader economy and no longer confined to the toxic end of debt, the best way to put cash into the pockets of consumers and companies is for the world’s main central banks together to buy mainstream securities, unlike under the initial US troubled asset relief programme. But these must be targeted to relieve the critical credit blockages impeding recovery. Many of the assets discussed below are now at the lowest real prices seen in decades. The influx of cash and credit will regenerate global activity, increasing the real value of most of these assets. In due course, the central banks will be able to sell back the assets to the private sector at an overall profit. The timing of such sales can be designed to stabilise the next boom.
A good example of this kind of unorthodox action is the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s successful defence of the currency peg in the 1997-98 Asian crisis. The HKMA intervened in the currency market, but more important were its purchases of Hong Kong equities, which speculators had sold short. These later made a net profit for the HKMA of US$14.1bn. The fact that many asset prices are far below fundamentals creates a parallel opportunity in the current global crisis."
When a governmentn starts buying equity it is called nationalization. It is what socialists do. It has been tried many times before, and it always ends up giving the same sorry result.
However, do we really need to explain spell this out? Sadly, I think so.
Here is another mad idea; this time from the FT. Central banks should buy up "underpriced" assets. No, we are not talking toxic mortgage debt, we mean all kinds of assets, including equity.
"Since the downturn is now in the broader economy and no longer confined to the toxic end of debt, the best way to put cash into the pockets of consumers and companies is for the world’s main central banks together to buy mainstream securities, unlike under the initial US troubled asset relief programme. But these must be targeted to relieve the critical credit blockages impeding recovery. Many of the assets discussed below are now at the lowest real prices seen in decades. The influx of cash and credit will regenerate global activity, increasing the real value of most of these assets. In due course, the central banks will be able to sell back the assets to the private sector at an overall profit. The timing of such sales can be designed to stabilise the next boom.
A good example of this kind of unorthodox action is the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s successful defence of the currency peg in the 1997-98 Asian crisis. The HKMA intervened in the currency market, but more important were its purchases of Hong Kong equities, which speculators had sold short. These later made a net profit for the HKMA of US$14.1bn. The fact that many asset prices are far below fundamentals creates a parallel opportunity in the current global crisis."
When a governmentn starts buying equity it is called nationalization. It is what socialists do. It has been tried many times before, and it always ends up giving the same sorry result.
However, do we really need to explain spell this out? Sadly, I think so.
Oh no, MIRAS is making a comeback
I am getting exhausted. After yesterday's policy disaster, now I read that some people are floating the idea of reintroducing tax relief on mortgage interest payments. Will the flow of bad ideas ever stop?
The thinking behind the mortgage tax relief is simple enough. Giving tax break on interest payments would put money back into the pockets of homeowners, who would go out and spend. In the narrow world inhabited by New Labour, spending keeps the economy going, and therefore keeps the debt-serfs voting for Brown and the gang.
Relief would also encourage house sales, since there would be an incentive to buy a house and obtain this tax break. House prices would go up, home equity would increase, banks could then re-ignite secured lending to households, and spending would go up.
The idea is of course, totally daft. Suppose Darling woke up tomorrow and introduced interest relief on all new mortgages. Everyone with a mortgage would immediately head down the bank and refinance. It would be hard to stop people with home equity loans from also refinancing. Within a few weeks, Darling would have effectively offered tax relief for a generation of reckless borrowing that had financed years of feckless consumption.
There is a lot of mortgage debt out there. Even a limited amount of tax relief could put an almighty hole in government finances.
But then, the fiscal deficit is already a bottomless pit of New Labour extravagance. Darling might think "in for a penny, in for a pound," and say "why not, mortgage interest relief can not make matters any worse that they already are."
The thinking behind the mortgage tax relief is simple enough. Giving tax break on interest payments would put money back into the pockets of homeowners, who would go out and spend. In the narrow world inhabited by New Labour, spending keeps the economy going, and therefore keeps the debt-serfs voting for Brown and the gang.
Relief would also encourage house sales, since there would be an incentive to buy a house and obtain this tax break. House prices would go up, home equity would increase, banks could then re-ignite secured lending to households, and spending would go up.
The idea is of course, totally daft. Suppose Darling woke up tomorrow and introduced interest relief on all new mortgages. Everyone with a mortgage would immediately head down the bank and refinance. It would be hard to stop people with home equity loans from also refinancing. Within a few weeks, Darling would have effectively offered tax relief for a generation of reckless borrowing that had financed years of feckless consumption.
There is a lot of mortgage debt out there. Even a limited amount of tax relief could put an almighty hole in government finances.
But then, the fiscal deficit is already a bottomless pit of New Labour extravagance. Darling might think "in for a penny, in for a pound," and say "why not, mortgage interest relief can not make matters any worse that they already are."
Parliamentary debate on the Information Commissioner's salary
The House of Commons has approved a motion to increase the Information Commissioner's salary from £98,000 to £140,000 a year which will be backdated to November 2007. During the debate, the issue of delays in the ICO's investigation of FOI complaints was raised by MPs.
The House of Commons has approved a motion to increase the Information Commissioner's salary from £98,000 to £140,000 a year which will be backdated to November 2007. During the debate, the issue of delays in the ICO's investigation of FOI complaints was raised by MPs.
Simon Hughes (North Southwark and Bermondsey) (LD): I am hoping that because his office and his salary are being debated in the House of Commons, the commissioner will understand that one of the consequences of a pay rise backdated by 12 months is that he must deal with the one fundamental weakness of his office, which is the backlog of work.Read the full debate
I am told that in the last year the commissioner had nearly 25,000 inquiries and complaints, and that he prosecuted 11 individuals and organisations and received just over 2,500 freedom of information complaints and closed about the same number. However, although 30 per cent. of the decisions were in favour of the complainant and 25 per cent. upheld public authorities’ original decisions, only 13 per cent. of valid cases were closed within 365 days. As he is to be given a vote of confidence by the House, I hope that those figures will give him cause to reflect on whether he should insist on the resources to support him. Those resources would come from the Government, and I hope that the Secretary of State will respond to that.
Colleagues, including my persistent hon. Friend the Member for Lewes (Norman Baker), tell me that there are regularly delays of one year, two years, or two and a half years.
...
Mr. Shepherd (Aldridge-Brownhills) (Con): Although the salary of £140,000 does not look great in comparison with those of local authority chief executives, BBC executives and so on, we have to pursue the question raised by the hon. Members for North Southwark and Bermondsey and for Wolverhampton, South-West (Rob Marris).
What has happened? There is a serious problem—the problem of delays. Is that the responsibility of someone whom I have always regarded as a fine public servant with a fine sense of public ethos? The statistics tickled out by the hon. Member for North Southwark and Bermondsey are important...
A snapshot of the problem can be seen from the brief analysis that the Campaign for Freedom of Information carried out into decision notices published by the Information Commissioner during September 2008. Of those, 20 specifically identified the date on which the requester complained to the Information Commissioner’s office. As we have been told, in the longest decision there were 32 months between the date on which the requester complained to the Information Commissioner and the date on which the decision was issued. The next longest took 30 months, the third longest took nearly 27 months and the fourth and fifth longest decisions took 26 months. Only six of the 20 cases were dealt with in less than 12 months.
...In 2007, the Information Commissioner’s office’s objective was to deal with 80 per cent. of freedom of information complaints within 365 days, indicating that it expected to take more than a year in 20 per cent. of cases. However, according to the Information Commissioner’s office’s corporate plan for 2008 to 2011, that target has been reduced; the current target is to deal with 70 per cent. of FOI complaints within a year. The new target therefore assumes that 30 per cent. of complaints will now take more than a year.
Top civil servant to fight release of Iraq war records
The Times
November 24 2008
Sam Coates, Chief Political Correspondent
The Times
November 24 2008
Sam Coates, Chief Political Correspondent
Sir Gus O’Donnell, the head of the Civil Service, will lead the Government’s last-ditch attempt to block the release of minutes of Cabinet meetings in the run-up to the war in Iraq, The Times has learnt.Full story
No 10 has been ordered by Richard Thomas, the Information Commissioner, to release copies of Cabinet minutes and records relating to meetings held between March 7 and 17, 2003.
Details of the meetings, during which the Attorney-General’s legal advice on the war was discussed, could reveal the positions of individual Cabinet ministers and the strength of internal opposition before the March 20 invasion.
The Cabinet Office is fighting the decision because it believes that a vital principle of government is at stake – the right to have private discussions. Ministers argue that releasing the documents could end hundreds of years of confidential Cabinet discussions and undermine collective Cabinet responsibility, where ministers must defend policies in public that they may not agree with in private.
...To prevent the disclosure, the Government is relying on two provisions in the freedom of information legislation that should block the release of documents relating to “formulation of government policy” or “ministerial communications”.
However, when the legislation was drawn up by Jack Straw in 2000, he decided that this ban could be overridden if the public interest arguments were strong enough .
Revealed: how minister cashed in on contacts
The Sunday Times
November 23, 2008
The Sunday Times
November 23, 2008
Insight: Jon Ungoed-Thomas, Jonathan Calvert, Andy Rowell and Georgia WarrenFull story
The former transport minister Stephen Ladyman has been using his parliamentary office to lobby officials for contracts for a private company.
Documents obtained under freedom of information laws show that the Labour MP touted for the business on behalf of ITIS Holdings, a transport company that pays him £1,000 a month.
Ladyman used his House of Commons address and e-mail when requesting meetings with officials on behalf of ITIS, which is chaired by a former Labour donor.
One of the letters, seeking Olympic work from London’s transport commissioner, begins: “You may remember me from my time as minister of state for transport.”
He also sent an e-mail to an official at the Highways Agency saying he was not permitted to lobby because it was less than a year since he had left the government. Despite this, the e-mail urges the agency to do business with ITIS.
Ladyman is one of about 25 former Labour ministers who have accepted jobs in the private sector since 2006, but he is the first to admit using his ministerial contacts to arrange meetings in Whitehall for clients.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Innovation: It's in the Genes
This Google logo, initially created to celebrate the 50th Anniversary of Understanding DNA, is a great representation of what happened when Genentech turned on Google Calendar for its 12,000 employees last month. Located in South San Francisco, Genentech is a leading biotech company focused on discovering, manufacturing and delivering medicines to patients with unmet medical needs. Genentech recently decided to adopt Google Apps and wanted to make a sure the migration went smoothly. The company deputized "Google Guides," promoted Google Apps as superheros called the "Google Squad" and built out great training materials amongst other innovations. And even though Genentech expected a record number of helpdesk tickets to flood its "war room" given the size of the deployment, to the surprise of everyone, including Todd Pierce, the CIO of Genentech, the staff hardly heard a peep.
Dec. 4, 10 AM PT: Lessons from Genentech's Google Apps Deployment
John Nanninga, Sr. Project Manager at Genentech, shares his 7 steps for planning and executing a cloud computing initiative, including evaluation, migration and launch recommendations. Open Q&A with John and Google product managers to follow. Register here.
We are also pleased to host CEO Vinny Lingham from an Internet start-up called SynthaSite. Vinny is a true fan of Google Apps after he recently moved his headquarters from South Africa to San Francisco simply by putting his people on a plane. With no hardware or software to maintain, SynthaSite has relied on Google Apps to help them scale their business and access their key information from anywhere.
Innovate with Google AdWords and Apps. Learn how SynthaSite uses Google AdWords and Apps to innovate in its industry on Thursday, December 11th, 10AM PST. Talk with CEO Vinny Lingham on using AdWords to grow revenues and Google Apps to achieve rapid scale. Register here.
We hope you can join us for these two guest speakers. We devote half of the time to Q&A so this is your chance to ask current customers your most important questions. Thanks again for your interest in Google Apps!
Serena Satyasai, Google Apps Marketing
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