One of the blog's regular readers - Brian from Canterbury - printed out one of my charts to do his own long term house projection. Taking the bottom of the last housing crash as his cue, he predicts that house prices could fall 60 percent in real terms by 2015.When I put this chart together, I predicted that prices would fall by 25 percent in real terms by 2012. That forecast looks way off the mark. House prices are down around 21 percent in real terms since the peak last autumn. In the long run, Brian might be closer to the mark than my woeful forecast.
If anyone else fancies a go at putting together their own forecast, please send it me. So long as you have a good reason behind your forecast, I would be happy to post it. The email address is ukhousebubble@aol.com.
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