Majority Agrees, Obama Sucks

Barack Obama seriously sucks at being the President as the latest Gallup poll shows that on six out of seven issues the majority of Americans disapprove of his job performance and the only issue that Obama's approval if higher than his disapproval rating is Terrorism



Breakdown:



Foreign Affairs- 51 percent disapprove and 42 percent approve

Education- 50 percent disapprove and 41 percent approve

Afghanistan- 55 percent disapprove and 38 percent approve

Creating Jobs- 65 percent disapprove and 29 percent approve

The Economy- 71 disapprove and 26 percent approve

The Federal Budget Deficit- 71 disapprove and 21 percent approve







As the chart above shows, Obama has lost percentage points on every single issue from May to August.

Bottom Line



President Obama's approval rating has dwindled in recent weeks to the point that it is barely hugging the 40% line. Three months earlier, it approached or exceeded 50%. History will remember this period for the messy political debate in Washington over the debt ceiling, followed by distress on Wall Street and tragedy in Afghanistan. How much each of these factors is responsible for the overall decline in Obama's approval rating is unclear. But Americans' unhappiness with each of them is reflected in recent declines in Obama's specific job ratings for the economy, the federal budget deficit, and various foreign policy measures, as well as in his markedly low rating for creating jobs.

Democrats alone rate Obama above 50 percent but among Republicans and Independents, Obama doesn't top a 50 percent approval rating on any front.



.

Gallup- 55% to 35%, Majority More Concerned About Lack Of Spending Cuts In Debt Battle

Gallup shows Americans want some type of compromise in the debt ceiling battle but lower into the Gallup poll it shows that by a 20 point margin, 55 percent to 35 percent, the majority "say they worry more that the government would raise the debt ceiling without plans for major spending cuts, than that the government would not raise the ceiling and an economic crisis would ensue."

The question: Which concerns you more: The government would not raise the debt ceiling and a major economic crisis would result, or the government would raise the debt ceiling but without plans for major cuts in future spending?

55 percent of respondents are more concerned about the lack of spending cuts than about any crisis that would result in no debt limit increase.

Bottom Line

Americans would like their representatives in Washington to compromise and get a debt agreement in place before the Aug. 2 deadline, but at the same time are concerned that any such agreement include major spending cuts.

Now, answer it out loud folks.. which party is fighting very publicly for spending cuts and which party is fighting against making those cuts?

Generic Presidential Poll: Republican 47%, Obama 39%

Gallup shows the first statistically significant lead in a poll asserting that a generic Republican candidate, the "Republican Party's candidate for president" receives support from 47 percent of registered voters than Obama does at 39 percent.

That lead is higher among Independents, with the Republican candidate coming in ahead 10 percent . (44 percent to 34 percent)

Polling this far away from the presidential election is not indicative one way or another as to whether Obama can or will be reelected, but polls do provide a snapshot on public opinion today as well as providing patterns and trends, which barring a major turnaround, can be predictive of which direction voters are heading in.

More at Gallup.

.

Gallup: 44 Percent For Generic Republican, 39 Percent For Obama

Earlier we described some devastating news for Obama and Gallup just provided some more.

Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican Party's candidate" and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup's June update.

Gallup does not consider the 5 percentage point lead statistically significant but with 17 months until the 2012 presidential election and Obama's dwindling poll numbers, rising unemployment, high foreclosures, tanking economy, increased gas prices and an out of control deficit, the numbers do not look good for Barack Obama heading into 2012.

.

Obama Gets Low Marks From Vets And Active Military

Quick link to the Gallup poll which finds that Barack Obama, Commander-in-Chief, gets lower marks from Veterans and Active Military members than the overall civilian population.



Noel Sheppard over at NewsBusters seems to get the irony of the Gallup poll timing considering that just this weekend Time magazine's Joe Klein tried to float the idea that Obama has a better relationship with the military than George Bush did.

BlackFive explains the "Cognitive dissonance" between people like Klein and, well, reality.

.

Economy, Spending And Budget Deficit The Top Concerns For Americans

The question Gallup posed for their survey on what concerns Americans the most was "Next, I am going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, only a little or not at all."

Economy- 71 percent listed the economy as their greatest concern, 22 percent listed it as fair amount and only 7 percent as only a little/not at all.

Federal Spending and the Budget Deficit- 64 percent listed Federal Spending and the Budget Deficit as their greatest concern, 23 percent listed it as fair amount and only 12 percent as only a little/not at all.

Those are the top concerns for Americans.

Gallup's bottom line

Americans' economic anxiety has not abated over the past year, as 7 in 10 Americans continue to tell Gallup they personally worry a great deal about the economy. This has ranked as Americans' top concern on this measure since 2008. Healthcare led the list from 2002 through 2007 and remains among the top five today.

This year's additions reveal that federal spending and the budget deficit worry Americans nearly as much as the economy. The interesting distinction is that all three party groups worry about the economy, while the deficit concerns far more Republicans and independents than Democrats.

Pretty clear that Democrats are out of touch on what is the most important to most Americans, which is why their problem is not "messaging" it is their message itself.

.

Gallup: Obama's Approval Rating Fell For 2010 In All 50 States

Gallup shows that Obama's highest approval ratings are in Hawaii, MD, NY, DE, MA, RI, CA, CT, and IL with his highest approval being in DC, which is not a state unto itself but a special district overseen by federal government, but the Gallup poll counts it in separately as one.

The lowest approval ratings for Obama are in WY, ID, WV, UT, OK, AK, KY, MT, AR and KS.

Since DC has the highest at 84.4 percent approval, without it, the average of the Gallup poll would be lower, but even so, Obama's average approval is lower than in 2009 in every one of the 50 states, even those with the highest approval ratings.

(Below figures represent the amount of percentage points Barack Obama has dropped from 2009 to 2010)







The average approval for Obama with the top 10 listed comes out to 61.1 percent.

The average approval for Obama with the bottom 10 listed comes out to 35.77 percent.

If you look at the Gallup page showing the figures for each individual state, you will see that only in 12 states and DC does Obama hold a 50 percent approval or higher.

In 38 states Obama is below 50 percent approval.

.

Gallup: 45% Would Vote To Reelect Obama, 45% Would Vote For Nameless Republican

Into his third year of presidency, Barack Obama finds himself behind where George Bush (both of them)was at a similar time in their presidencies, according to Gallup. At this time 45 percent of registered voters would support Obama's reelection bid with 45 percent saying they would vote for a generic Republican, meaning a nameless, faceless Republican ties Obama in polling for the 2012 presidential election.

In polling from October 2001 through January 2004, George W. Bush consistently led an unnamed Democratic opponent, although by a shrinking margin as his job approval rating descended from a post-9/11 reading of 87% to the 50s and 60s. In February 2003, the point in Bush's presidency comparable to Obama's presidency today, Bush beat a generic Democrat among registered voters by 47% to 39%.

The major issues that will come into play for the 2012 presidential election will be jobs and the unemployment rate, the economy and as November 2010 midterms showed by exit polling and commentary, government spending and the federal deficit will surely come into play behind jobs and economy.

Unemployment:

For unemployment, the consensus forecast was 9.3 percent for 2011 and 8.6 percent for 2012. The 10 most pessimistic averaged 9 percent, and the 10 most upbeat averaged 8.2 percent.

The unemployment rate has never averaged above 8 percent during a presidential election year, according to Labor Department data stretching back to 1948. (Source)

As I mention in all the unemployment rate posts, the Department of Labor does not count millions that are able and want to work but do not seek work in the 4 weeks prior to their reports, with those numbers included, unemployment and/or underemployment is much higher than the national official numbers show.

The “U-6” rate, an alternative measure of labor underutilization that adds up rates of unemployment—those working part-time but seeking full-time work as well as those who have given up looking—came in at 16.1 percent, down from 16.7 percent in December and 17 percent in October and November.

In January of last year the U-6 rate was 18 percent. Though it is down 2 points in a year, it is still about twice the normal rate. While largely unpublicized, this rate is probably a better measurement of the kind of unemployment and underemployment that affects many families and drives their attitudes about the economy. (Source)

The official number is the one heard most often and reported on, but the U-6 is what people feel at home, especially those unemployed or who have family members that are unemployed.

Spending cuts/Deficit:

Obama's highly criticized (from both sides of the aisle) budget proposal will bring the deficit up to $1.65 trillion for 2011 and included some spending cuts but still has the government spending more than it brings in.

As ABC news pointed out, "At no point in the president’s 10-year projection would the U.S. government spend less than it's taking in."

To spend more than you bring in, you have to borrow and we pay interest on what we borrow.

According to Wapo, "Interest payments on the national debt will quadruple in the next decade and every man, woman and child in the United States will be paying more than $2,500 a year to cover for the nation's past profligacy, according to figures in President Obama's new budget plan. "

Recent polling shows 55 percent of American voters do not think it included enough spending cuts.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters say they have been following recent news stories about the president’s 2012 budget which was made public on Monday. That includes 43% who say they have been following Very Closely.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans and 59% of unaffiliated voters say the president’s proposed budget cuts too little. A plurality (49%) of Democrats says the planned cuts are about right.

Conservatives overwhelmingly think Obama’s budget cuts too little, and most say the same of planned GOP spending cuts. The majority of liberals say the president’s proposed cuts are about right but say planned Republican budget cutting is too much.

Republicans have countered Obama's budget with spending cuts of their own to include $61 billion from 2010 levels and about $100 billion from the amount Obama requested, but never received, for this year. Obama has threatened to veto that plan.

40 percent of voters, according to the same poll, do not think the GOP's proposed spending cuts go far enough either.

By a 57 percent to 28 percent margin voters believe that cutting government spending would do more to create jobs than building a high-speed rail network which is one of the president’s proposals.

While polling this far out from the 2012 elections cannot predict what the outcome will be, only circumstances closer to the election can do that, the fact that Obama is only tied with a nameless, faceless Republican in his third year, does not bode well for him considering his own 2012 projections for unemployment and his predilection for spending more than we take in and cutting less than American voters want.

Polling also is a good indicator of patterns and according to the linked Gallup poll at the beginning of this post, in February of 2010, 44 percent of voters supported Obama's reelection bid with only 42 percent supporting an unnamed Republican. February 2011 the split is 45/45.

Andrew Malcolm from LA Times' Top of the Ticket, sums it up nicely:

The GOP doesn't even need a frontrunner to catch the incumbent of the most powerful political office in the world. No wonder Obama's bringing fresh blood into the White House and shipping out aides to kick-start the billion-dollar campaign back in Chicago.

A new Gallup Poll finds Obama a little worse off in that generic presidential ballot category this year than he was last year at this time.

One last set of numbers to keep our eyes on, which personally I believe will greatly impact Obama's reelection chances.

Direction of the country:

On average, from all polls conducted gauging the mood of the country on whether they think the U.S. is on the right track or heading in the wrong direction, show a majority (60 percent) believing America is on the wrong track.

CBS News/NY Times- 64 percent say wrong track, 32 percent say right direction.

Rasmussen Reports- 64 percent say wrong track, 31 percent say right direction.

ABC News/Washington Post- 60 percent say wrong track, 38 percent say right direction.

Reuters/Ipsos- 57 percent say wrong track, 38 percent say right direction.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal- 56 percent say wrong track, 35 percent say right direction.

If Obama cannot make a dent in those numbers, his reelection chances will decrease.

Conservatives need think long and hard about who they choose to run against Obama in 2012. They need to decide what is a priority in their eyes and what is not and choose accordingly. If the polling patterns continue along the same lines as they have been for the last year, the wrong candidate choice could hand Barack Obama a second term.

.

Majority Of Americans Believe Left Attempted To Exploit AZ Tragedy To Make Right Look Bad

Quick post on Gallup who finally asked the appropriate question about what portion of Americans feel the far left and commentators that attempted to convince the public to think the right's rhetoric was somehow responsible was just using "the tragedy to make conservatives look bad."

In other words, the public saw right through the left's pathetic attempts to spin and connect the right with the act of Jared Lee Loughner when he shot and killed 6 people and injured 13 others.

The poll was conducted Jan. 11, three days after Jared Loughner allegedly shot and killed six people in Tucson, Ariz., and seriously injured numerous others including Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Some of the early news coverage of the shootings discussed whether the increasingly inflammatory language used in political debate today could have motivated the shooter to attack the Democratic member of Congress. That theory was put forth by the sheriff of Pima County, Ariz., who argued that conservative thought leaders like Sarah Palin use language that may encourage their supporters to commit acts of violence against their opponents.

Most Americans reject that theory, with 53% agreeing that commentators who allege conservative rhetoric was responsible were mostly attempting to use the tragedy to make conservatives look bad. Roughly one in three, 35%, say the commentators were making a legitimate point about how dangerous the language used by conservatives can be.

Though Americans doubt that the language used in political debate was a motivating factor in the shootings, they are inclined to believe all major U.S. political groups are going too far in using inflammatory language to criticize their opponents. In fact, Americans are about equally likely to say Democrats (51%) and Republicans (53%) are guilty of this. A similar percentage also believe this applies to supporters of the Tea Party movement.

Americans watch and listen and make up their own minds no matter how often the left attempts to mislead them.

As a side note since the left's attempt included a very strong push to mislead the public and pin blame on Sarah Palin for Loughner's acts, once she responded, it seems the public views her as more "sincere" and "believable" after seeing her response to those far left liberals attempts.

Can you say... BACKFIRE?

.

Gallup Finds Liberals Still Smallest Ideological Group In America

Conservatives continue to outnumber Liberals in ideological demographics with almost double the numbers of Gallup poll respondents self identifying as Conservative than does Liberal.

40 percent identify as Conservative, 21 percent identify as Liberal and 35 percent identify as Moderate.



Gallup breaks it down further, showing that those that consider themselves very Conservative are 10 percent and those that consider themselves very Liberal are 6 percent.

.

The 111th Congress Goes Out With Lowest Approval Ratings In 36 Years

[Update] Help stop the Omnibus bill that Reid is trying to shove through, go here, scroll to the bottom and start dialing please.

As the 111th Congress goes out with the new 112th Congress ready to take the reins in January, Gallup finds that the Democratically controlled Congress has hit the lowest point in job approval in 36 years.

Only 13 percent of Americans approve of the the job performance of the current Congress and 83 percent disapprove.

I bet these numbers would have been lower had Gallup waied just one more week!!

The prior low approval rating for Congress was 14% in July 2008 when the United States was dealing with record-high gas prices and the economy was in recession.

The current results are based on a Dec. 10-12 Gallup poll, conducted as Congress is finishing work on an important lame-duck session. The session has been highlighted by the agreement on taxes forged last week by President Obama and Republicans in Congress. The tax deal preserves the 2001 and 2003 income tax rates for all Americans for two years, revises the estate tax, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed for a year, and reduces payroll taxes for American workers. It is expected to pass despite vocal opposition from some lawmakers.

Americans are generally more positive than negative toward the deal, but many Democrats in Congress oppose it.

I suppose those numbers could have been lower had Gallup waited a week so the reality of the newly unveiled Senate Omnibus bill could have set into American's minds.

News reports show it is a $1.1 trillion bill with 6,600 earmarks costing approximately $8 billion.

Senator John Cornyn, R-Texas issued a statement in regards to this mess of an omnibus bill:

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, responded in a statement, saying that after neglecting to pass a budget, "today we learn Senate Democrats now want to sandwich them together, totaling almost 2,000 pages, and jam them through in the waning moments of this lame duck session before anyone can read them. This political end-around reveals just how quickly my colleagues across the aisle have already forgotten the voters' message in November."

Though none of the spending bills has passed the Senate, all the individual appropriations bills have been through the full committee process. In an afternoon release, the Appropriations Committee website listed all of the requested earmarks, winnowed into separate categories that go into making up the 12 separate annual spending bills.

If Republicans want to see the projected approval rating jump in January as they take control of the House of Representatives and five additional senators are seated in the Senate, they must block this bill, force Democrats to pass a stop gap bill to keep government running until January or February, then introduce the appropriate spending bills without the massive pork aka earmarks when Republicans control the House.

.

Republicans 267, Democrats 168 in House

One always hesitates to get way out in front of the crowd or in this case the other political analysts. So far none of the other analysts have been willing to go above a 57 seat gain for the Republicans or a 235 to 200 House in favor of the Republicans. So where do we get off projecting an 89 net seat gain for them?

Unlike other analysts, we have been using the results of the likely voter generic congressional ballots as developed by Gallup over the last 60 years for midterm elections. When you have 15 data points like this, you can apply a regression analysis to develop some mathematical equations that can allow you to predict how many seats the Republicans will wind up taking from the Democrats.

Never before in the last 60 years have the Republicans been able to get a spread of more than 7 points in their favor and that was in 1994. Right now the Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot is 7.3 points in their favor and the Republicans picked up a net 51 seats when it was 7. This already says that the Republicans should do better than a 51 seat gain.

Remember that Gallup is the pollster that has data going back 60 years so they have all that experience in developing a screen to pick out the likely voters from a sample of registered voters. This year Gallup is offering two types of likely voter screens depending upon how many voters actually do turn out to vote. The spread in favor of the Republicans is a whopping 9 to 14 points.

If a 7 point spread got the Republicans a net gain of 51 seats, what would 9 points get them let alone 14? A simple proportional analysis says that 9 is 1.29 times greater than 7 so 51 X 1.57 = 65 seats. On the other hand, 14 is 2 times greater than 7 so 51 X 2 = 102 seats. While this kind of progression is way too simple and way outside any existing data points, it does tell you that our projection of an 89 net seat pickup for the Republicans does not seem so outrageous.

So why do we pick 89 seats instead of 65 or 102? We use results from previous equivalent elections as a starting point and then add in an adjustment for the Obamacare votes and poll results. Actually we project that the Republicans will pick up 91 seats from the Democrats but will lose 3 of their own (DE-AL, IL-10 and LA-3). On the other hand they will gain back their now vacant seat (IN-3) so 178 + 91 - 3 + 1 = 267. This gain means the final generic ballot spread will be 12.5 points in favor of the Republicans.

We go further and try to project which seats will be among the 91 seats the Democrats will lose at Who's Winning the House? As you can see from that table, the 91st seat is Carolyn McCarthy in NY-4. An October poll from McLaughlin and Associates has her up 1 point over the Republican Becker, 46 to 45. That 1 point can be made up in the 8 days remaining before the election. The 92nd seat is Ben Chandler in KY-6 and he is ahead by 4 points in an October poll from Mason-Dixon, 48 to 44. While it is possible for the Republicans to pick up this seat since Chandler is polling under 50%, it is not an odds on bet.

Likewise, Tierney in MA-6 is up 6 and Braley is up 11 in IA-1. On the other hand, in the 95th seat, there is a tie in an August poll from Action Solutions, but that is an old poll so who knows where that race is today. At best, it could make up for one of the ones listed in the first 91 that the Republicans end up losing. The point is that the pickings are pretty slim below that 91st seat so that is why we stopped there.

Wapo Skews Sample To Rally Democratic Troops

A new WaPo/ABC poll gives hope to Democrats... or does it?

Democrats have cut in half the GOP's early-September advantage on the question of which party's candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care.

One would think that is good news for Democrats, then again, Hot Air bursts that little bubble by looking at the skewed samples used in comparison with the last poll done.

And how did the Democrats manage this rather remarkable comeback? Well, the WaPo/ABC pollster managed to find their usual sample gap. They went from a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters, to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters. That nine-point advantage to Democrats among RVs is almost twice what it was in the previous sample.

Gallup on the other hand has finally begun listing register voter sample numbers alongside of likely voter projections and the results are great news for Republicans.

The Hill:

Gallup's first generic ballot estimate of likely voters showed Republicans leading Democrats 53-40 percent in a high turnout scenario and 56-38 percent in a low turnout scenario.

Over the last few weeks, Gallup's generic ballot polls of registered voters have shown both parties statistically tied. But the more narrow group of voters likely to cast ballots on Election Day in November shows the GOP with a bigger edge.

Better yet:

Gallup's poll released last week showed Republicans leading Democrats in enthusiastic voters by 20-percent.

There seems to be a general agreement that a likely voter models are more predictive than simply using registered voters.

.

Gallup is not Promoting This

Gallup Polling released a bombshell today when it quietly applied a likely voter screen to its generic ballot polling. As followers of this website know, only likely voter samples have any real predictive value for the midterm elections in the House of Representatives according to Gallup itself. Last week, Gallup showed the two parties tied in the generic ballot using a registered voter sample. Today they applied a likely voter screen to both last week's results and this week's and suddenly the Republicans have a 13 point lead in one scenario and 16 in another one.

Their analysis is very instructive. They start with a sample of 3,037 adults for the last two weeks. Of these, 2,764 are registered to vote, but only 1,882 are considered likely to vote. As we have repeatedly told you, adult polls do not be mean beans in politics and should be ignored. If you are not registered you cannot vote so you have no influence on an election. But not all registered voters actually vote so registered voter polls only tell you what would happen if everyone actually turned out which never happens. Turnout varies from election to election being much higher in presidential elections and much lower in midterm elections.

Republicans turn out better in all national elections and even more so in midterm elections so registered voter samples under-represent votes for Republicans. Only likely voter samples correct for this bias. This is illustrated by the registered voters in this sample going for the Republicans by a 3 point margin. However, the likely voters show a whopping 13 or 16 point spread depending on the overall turnout. As you can see this is a huge difference and accounts for the so-called enthusiasm gap where the Republicans are more motivated to turnout in 2010 by about 20 points than the Democrats.

So what are the practical results of this huge gap? We have provided a table that allows you to convert the generic ballot spread in likely voter samples to actual seats in the House of Representatives. A 13 point spread blows of the end of the table because the Republicans have never gotten better than a 7 point spread in any midterm election since 1950 and trying to extend the table out that far gets to be mathematically imprecise. Still even if Gallup's lower estimate of 13 points is correct, we are looking at the greatest blowout election for the Republicans in the last 80 years.

We can only estimate what the House would look like after such an election by extending equations out beyond any known data points which we have done in our ongoing series, Who is Winning the House? As you can see, a 13 point spread translates to the Republicans gaining 92 new seats while losing 2 seats of their own. That net gain of 90 seats would produce a 268 to 167 House for the Republicans and a 101 seat margin. The 16 point spread blows off the end of even the extended table and takes off into the wild blue yonder.

We find it hard to believe that kind of spread especially when Rasmussen after being as high as a 12 point spread is suddenly showing only a 3 point spread. Still it does tend to validate our own prediction of a 256 to 179 House for the Republicans with a net gain of 78 seats and a 77 seat margin.

Gallup's Likely Voter Turnout Models Give Republicans Double Digit Leads

Gallup:

Gallup's generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios.



Breakdown analysis:

Within both likely voter pools, Republicans are highly likely to vote for the Republican candidate, and Democrats for the Democratic candidate. Independents in both likely voter models skew strongly toward the Republican candidate. Gallup has found independent registered voters consistently preferring Republican candidates throughout the campaign.

The GOP is positioned to do very well in the midterms, they need a 39 seat net gain in the House to take control, which seems likely and a 10 seat net gain in the Senate which seems less likely.

Taking either of the those will put a stop to the Democrats attempts to jam through Barack Obama's agenda though.

.

Majority Distrusts Media and Plurality Says Media Is Too Liberal

Gallup:

For the fourth straight year, the majority of Americans say they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. The 57% who now say this is a record high by one percentage point.

[...]

Nearly half of Americans (48%) say the media are too liberal, tying the high end of the narrow 44% to 48% range recorded over the past decade. One-third say the media are just about right while 15% say they are too conservative.

Those findings explain this sentence from Gallup perfectly:

Democrats and liberals remain far more likely than other political and ideological groups to trust the media and to perceive no bias.

Despite John Kerry's claim that voters are too uninformed, it seems Americans are watching, noticing and calling the media out on their liberal bias, hence distrusting them to report the news accurately and see them nmore as Democratic cheerleaders.

Sounds pretty informed to me.

Democrat Toast

When the Gallup Poll says the Democrats are toast come November, you can believe it because even their registered voter generic congressional ballot results are usually below what other pollsters show for the Republicans. Today Gallup has the Republicans up by 10, the highest ever recorded since 1950. On July 19th, Gallup had the Democrats up by 6 when no other pollster had the Democrats up at all. Obviously Gallup has made some adjustments to how they weight their samples. Rasmussen has had the Republicans up by as much as 12 and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Democrat firm, has had the Republicans up as much as 11. The previous high for Gallup was 7 for the Republicans in 1994 and that was using a likely voter sample rather than a registered voter sample. Had Gallup used a likely voter sample, the results would be even higher for the Republicans because likely voter samples always favor Republicans more than registered voter samples because Republicans turn out to vote better than Democrats.

If a 7 point spread in 1994 gave the Republicans control of the House by 231 to 204 seats, what would a 10 point spread do? If you have been following our model adopted from Gallup, you already know the answer: the Republicans would control the House by a whopping 71 seat margin, 253 to 182. That last time the Republicans controlled the House by that big a margin was as a result of the 1928 election, some 82 years ago. The last time the Republicans gained more than 71 seats was not in 1994 (54 seats) or even in 1946 (55 seats), it was in 1938 (81 seats). Thus a 75 seat gain would be the biggest in 72 years, but we have already pointed that out. At this point, it seems fair to say that the Democrats are not just toast, but burned toast.

All of this is merely a prelude to saying that we are adjusting our projections from a 67 seats picked up while losing 2 for a net gain of 65 to a whopping 80 seats picked up for a net gain of 78 seats. Thus our new projection is for a 256 to 179 seat House for the Republicans. Since the current House has the exact opposite of that, we are projecting a total flip over of the House giving the Republicans control by the exact same margin as the Democrats have now. Our reason for doing this is precisely because of what has been happening in the generic congressional ballot polls. This would require a 10.6 point margin in the likely voter generic congressional polls.

That average has been 10.5 lately even though today it is only 7.3 because Rasmussen has dropped down to 6 from 12 two weeks ago. The Gallup poll says that the latest Rasmussen poll is most likely an outlier poll and will return to the 9 point range next week. If you are interested in just which seats the Republicans will pick up, you will find that in our Marston Report. To give you an idea of what that means in the real world, it means the Republicans will have to defeat the likes of Bob Etheridge in NC-2, Ed Perlmutter in CO-2, Chellie Pingree in ME-1 and Bruce Braley in IA-1. The first two are rated by Real Clear Politics as leans D, but the last two are listed as likely D. If we cannot get those last two, the next two in our rankings are Phil Hare in IL-17 and Melissa Bean in IL-8 which RCP does list as leans D.

Gallup: Gop Takes 'Unprecedented' Lead On Generic Ballot

Gallup reports the GOP has taken what they call an "unprecedented" 10 point lead (51 percent to 41 percent) over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot, where the question of Republican or Democrat is asked without specific names.

More importantly, Republicans also hold a 25 point lead in enthusiasm among registered voters (50 percent to 25 percent).

Rasmussens latest findings on the Generic Congressional Ballot is the GOP ahead by six points.

Interestingly, there is no surprise that Democrats back their candidate by 83 percent and Republicans back theirs by 85 percent. The numbers to watch for are the Independents which break towards the Republicans by a 21 percent margin with 44 percent favoring Republicans and 23 favoring Democrats.

The difference between the Gallup and Rasmussen polling methods is Gallup used registered voters and Rasmussen used likely voters.

.