You are a miserable pessimistic lot!Each month, the European Commission organizes a survey of household employment expectations. The survey is based on a simple question; households are asked whether they think there will be many or few jobs available in six months’ time.
Some answers will be positive, while some will be negative. In order to construct a meaningful statistic, the EC looks at the net balance. If answers, are generally postive about employment prospects, then the net balance will have a positive number, with higher numbers indicating a more optimistic outlook. Pessimistic answers are characterized by negative numbers.
Well, in the last few months, households have turned really negative about employment. Of course, this is completely consistent with what we know about economic growth, which was flat during the second quarter.
So, all the signs are there; the UK is rapidly sinking into a recession. It will be a recession marked by declining house prices, crushing household sector debt and rising inflation.
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