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Friday, September 26, 2008

Can anyone see the bottom?

Here is chart of new housing starts in the US that goes all the way back to 1963.

The August 2008 number was about as bad as it gets. It was just a little over 400,000. Normally, this level of construction is only reached in the depths of a recession, like back in the early 1990s, the Reagan recession and the mid-1970s.

However, the decline on home contruction appears to have extraordinary momentum. It wouldn't be surprising if in the next couple of months, new home starts reached an all time historical low.

As hard as it is to believe, the US housing crash is about to get much worse.

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