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Sunday, July 26, 2009

Decision time on quantitative easing

The Bank of England have almost exhausted their authorization to print cash to buy up assets. As of July 23, the Bank of England had purchased ₤121 billion of government bonds, commercial paper, and corporate bonds. The government had authorized purchases up to ₤125 billion under the asset purchase scheme.

Of course, the Bank of England can go back to the government and ask for an increase in the amount of cash it can print. However, ₤125 billion is a huge number. Asking for more would only further increase the risk of an explosion in inflation two or so years down the line.

In terms of kick-starting the economy quantitative easing has yielded dismal results. The economy continues to decline. GDP has now contracted for five straight quarters. Since the recession began, the UK economy has shrunk by almost 6 percent.

Quantitative easing hasn't done much to boost credit; at least not so far. Lending to the corporate sector continues to decline, while consumer credit is flat. It is only the housing sector where we have seen any tangible results. Mortgage approvals are up and credit conditions are improving.

However, the policy of printing money and buying government debt has had one notable success. The Bank of England has used its QE authorization to buy up over ₤118 billion of gilts, allowing the UK government to run up the largest fiscal deficit in history.

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