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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Bernanke has lost control of the ship

This is the kind of chart that sends economies into recession. It tracks the US corporate bond yield for non investment grade paper (rated Baa by Moody's). Companies issuing this kind of paper normally carry some risk of default but they are also often the most innovative rapidly growing companies.

Unfortunately, non investment grade US corporate bond yields have surged. In fact they hovering at around 9 percent. This is at a time when the Federal Funds rate is just one percent.

If this rate does not fall, companies will not be able to raise cash through the corporate debt market. These companies will forego investment projects, and the growth potential of the US economy will decline.

So much for Bernanke's dash for zero interest rates. The rest of the economy has decided to stay put and keep rates high. It all goes to prove one thing, Bernanke and the Fed have lost control. US monetary policy isn't working.

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