The UK housing market is a monster. Last year, lenders extended mortgages amounting to £257 billion. That is equivalent to about 19 percent of GDP. Despite this huge inflow of credit, property prices nose-dived.
The year before, mortgage lending was much higher. In 2007, banks lent some £363 billion. The credit crunch extracted some £107 billion worth of lending out of the property market.
Here we come to a little difficulty for Brown and Darling. This year, they want to borrow £120 billion in order to finance the government deficit. If the housing market is going to recover, it needs to find a similar amount of credit. They also want to keep interest rates close to zero. Then there is the private sector, who also has a potentially enormous demand for credit.
How does the government intend to reconcile these competing objectives? It is going to ask the Bank of England to print money.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
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