The Hispanic Vote In The Upcoming 2010 Elections

This Pew report analyzed the Hispanic vote in the 2002 and 2006 midterm elections and will be able to compare to the one this week. - - Donna Poisl

by Steven A. Camarota and Ashley Monique Webster

Some commentators have argued that the failure of Congress to pass "comprehensive immigration reform," coupled with Arizona’s new enforcement efforts, will increase Hispanic turnout in the upcoming midterm elections. More recently, others have argued that these same issues will dampen Hispanic turnout.

This Memorandum provides a means for evaluating these arguments by examining the Hispanic voting trends in past midterm elections and projecting what their turnout might be next week based on data from the Census Bureau. Once the election is over, the extent to which Hispanic turnout follows or deviates from past patterns can be used to evaluate if this was an unusual election with regard to Hispanics.
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