Final Polling Shows GOP Lead Widens To Unprecedented Proportions

Gallup

A few polling organizations have conducted their last round of polling before tomorrow's midterm election and according to Gallup there is a 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters that is "unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations."

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

White House Press Secretary previously stated that the midterm elections would be about "local issues" and not about Barack Obama. Obama told a crowd that he was not on the ballot but his agenda was, they were only partially right, in that Obama's actual name and specific legislation is not on the ballot, but a small plurality will still be casting their vote with his name and his agenda in mind, according to another Gallup poll.

"By 38% to 24%, Tuesday's voters are more likely to be using their vote for Congress to send a message that they oppose President Obama than to signal that they support him, while 37% say they will not be sending a message with their vote."

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Given four factors to consider when choosing a congressional candidate, 41% of voters this year cite national issues, making them the top factor. Another 23% choose the character and experience of a candidate, 21% choose local and state issues, and 12% choose the candidate's political party.

Gallup's Bottom Line:

If Republicans win the majority in the U.S. House on Tuesday, 2010 will join 2006 and 1994 as the most recent elections in which power changed hands in Congress. In addition to the indication of strong Republican gains provided by the generic congressional ballot results, several broader voter attitudes point to an impending change of power:

More voters currently say their vote is a message against the sitting president rather than for him, a pattern also seen in 2006, but not in 2002 and 1998. This question was not asked in 1994.

Voters backing candidates from the minority party (currently Republicans) are more likely to say their vote is mainly a vote against the other party than are voters who are backing the majority party's candidates (currently Democrats). In 1994 and 2006, the winning party was the one more voters supported as a vote against the other party.

Voters are more likely to say the country will be better off with the Republicans in charge than the Democrats. In each of the last two midterms, 2006 and 2002, the party leading on this won the majority of U.S. House seats.

Public Policy Polling reports results fro Pennsylvania showing an "inordinate number of Democrats unhappy with Barack Obama- and voting Republican because of it."

Generally Republicans favor Republicans as Democrats favor Democrats and Independents who are known as swing voters make the difference, but with some Democrats planning to vote Republican as well, gains could be higher than previously projected for Republicans in the House.

Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows a majority of Swing Voters, 52 percent, stating they will vote Republican in tomorrow's elections.

One Democratic pollster, David Beattie, making it clear "This race is all about President Obama."

Further NBC News/Wall Street Journal results from their final polling push, states "a plurality of all registered voters say it would be a “good thing” if Republicans were in charge of both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate; and almost two-thirds — including about half of Democrats — want to see a significant amount of change in the way President Barack Obama has been leading the country."

Pew Research headlines with "GOP Likely to Capture Control of House," sub header states that "Record Republican Engagement Drives High Turnout Forecast."

Pew Research Center's final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday's midterm elections. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50%-to-40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

With the final polls out, results reported on and discussed heavily, The Politico reports that Democrats are now simply waiting to see how bad the losses are.

Now, for Democratic consultants and campaign officials who have plotted and strategized for months to preserve the embattled House majority, there’s nothing left to do but sit and wait for the expected horrors of Election Day to unfold.

There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats they will lose.

While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats.

A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.

All spoke to the grimness of the mood.

“It sucks,” said Dave Beattie, a Florida-based Democratic pollster who is working on a slate of competitive House races and who acknowledges that the lower congressional chamber is lost. “I’m resigned to the fact that it sucks.”

While there was optimistic talk within party circles early this month that the electoral environment was improving for the party, the operatives said those conversations don’t take place anymore.

“If some Democratic consultant told you they are feeling better, they must have dropped some heavy drugs,” said a senior pollster who is working for candidates in competitive races. “It’s hard.”

Polls tell us Republicans are poised for massive gains and turnout is expected to be high, but the only thing that counts is the people that go to the polls and actually cast that vote tomorrow or that have already voted or sent in their ballot.

Independents and Republicans alike cannot sit back and just assume the GOP is going to win big, they cannot look at the projections and sit it out thinking someone else will do it, they must get out and vote.

I sent in my early ballot last week.... have you voted? If not, please vote tomorrow.

Send a message to Washington, they work for us and if they ignore us, disrespect us, we can and will fire them.

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GOP Election Day advantage aided by surge in independents who lean Republican

The title is the sub header for the new Gallup report issued titled "2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past."

In this report Gallup confirms that those that will be voting in the midterms will be similar to the demographics of those that voted in the 2006 election which gave control of Congress to the Democrats.

Only this time, they leaning towards Republicans.

At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

Further findings:

Specifically, 55% of likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.

Notably, this year's high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool -- now at 16% -- reflecting the broader shift toward the Republican Party among independents evident since 2009.

Independents will be key on election night which is confirmed by a CBS News/New York Times poll.

With the midterm elections less than a week away, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds that Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats in the generic House ballot. Forty-six percent of likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while 40 percent say they will vote Democrat. (Learn more about how to interpret the generic House ballot here.)

The advantage can be attributed in large part to independents, who are breaking hard for the GOP. Forty-seven percent of independent likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while just 32 percent plan to vote Democrat. Seventeen percent haven't made up their minds.

More than four in five Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, say they are sticking with their party.

Side Note- While projections give the GOP control of the House of Representatives, the Senate majority still most likely will be held by Democrats with a much smaller majority.

With that said, in one of the most closely watched races, Nevada's Senate race, Sharron Angle now has a four point lead on Harry Reid, in two separate polls, one done by TIME/CNN/Opinion Research and another Rasmussen Reports.

A loss for Reid means Harry Reid would no longer be Senate Majority leader.

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Barack Obama Pretty Speeches Cannot Recapture Democratic Enthusiasm

NYT's The Caucus reports that Barack Obama, in an attempt to "recapture Democratic enthusiasm" from 2008, will try to go back in time to when he drew large crowds, made pretty speeches, promised his cult of followers a rose garden.

The difference between then and now is those followers actually believed Obama's campaign promises.

Hard core far left progressive Democrats believed Barack Obama would have ended all wars, Iraq and Afghanistan by now, they believed he would no longer fight court battles proclaiming "state secrets" as George Bush did, they believed he would fight and win the "public option" argument for Obamacare, they believed Gitmo would be closed by now and they believed Illegal aliens would get amnesty.

The point is they believed Obama's rhetoric in 2008.

Jump to 2010 and you have supporters expressing buyer's remorse, Velma Hart telling Obama to his face she is exhausted of defending him and his administration, Greg Smith expressing how "hopeless" he feels after all his efforts to campaign for Obama in 2008, Glenn Greenwald angry (normal state for him it seems), Susan Madrak of Crooks and Liars telling White House officials she feels like the "the girl you'll take under the bleachers but you won't be seen with in the light of day," Jane Hamsher at FireDogLake feeling belittled by Obama, hard core far left Democrats disappointed, disillusioned, feeling betrayed by Barack Obama.

Being hard core supporters, Democrats first and foremost, they may piss, moan, complain, yell, scream, whine and vent, but when all is said and done, if they show up at the voting booths in November for midterms, will cast their votes for Democrats anyway.

Independents are a whole different ballgame.

According to Pew Research, Independents are the largest voting bloc with 37% of registered voters being independents or other non-partisans, 34% being Democrats and 29% being Republicans.

Independents tipped the scales for Obama in 2008, believing his claims of working in a totally bipartisan atmosphere, believed, despite Obama's voting record and history, that he would rule from the middle, believed he would "change" the way Washington worked, believed Obama would help create jobs, make a dent in fixing the economy and would represent American views in the White House.

What they got was a President that signed into law a healthcare plan that the majority of Independents, the majority of Americans, completely opposed and objected to. A President that has allowed Government spending to drive our national deficit higher than any other president has. A President that has handed over billions upon bilions to bailouts of the Auto industry, banks, unions, etc.. A President that has driven unemployment up to 9.6 percent. A President that has broken trust with them.

According to Pew Research, Independents now "favor Republican candidates by about as large a margin as they backed Barack Obama in 2008 and congressional Democratic candidates four years ago. "

Uncharacteristically, independent voters, who typically are not highly engaged by midterm elections, are now more likely than Democrats to say they are giving a lot of thought to this one. And they are about as likely as Democrats to say they definitely will vote; during the fall of 2006, far more Democrats than independents said they definitely would vote.
 
The relatively high level of independent engagement this year has come among those who plan to vote Republican. Fully 64% of independents who plan to vote for the Republican in their district are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 40% of independents who plan to vote for a Democrat.

Independents are disillusioned even more than Democrats.

Going into the 2010 elections

Barack Obama's approval ratings continue to hit new lows as headlines keep screaming, Congressional Democratic leaders (Pelosi and Reid) hold the highest unpopularity ratings, Obamacare aka Healthcare remains opposed by the majority of Americans despite promises that once it was passed it would become popular, unemployment is up to 9.6 percent, Obama's budget plan projects a record-breaking $1.6 trillion in the current fiscal year, and every day the news gets worse and worse.

The latest polling on enthusiasm, by a McClatchy/Marist poll, shows "Republican voters are more excited about their vote than are Democratic voters. 46% of Republican voters compared with 30% of Democrats are very enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming midterm elections. 23% of independent voters also express a high level of enthusiasm."

Barack Obama might draw a crowd on Tuesday when he holds an old-fashioned campaign rally on the campus of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, if not they can just bus people in again for the photo ops trying to show some excitement, but getting voters favoring Democrats to the booths in November, voters that are not hard core far left progressive Democrats, will not happen because Barack Obama decided to give another pretty speech or because he makes more promises.

No longer are moderates and Independents going to believe the rhetoric when their eyes, their wallet, their newspapers tell them a different story.

A new POLITICO / George Washington University Battleground Poll shows that a "significant majority" of voters are already considering voting against Obama in 2012, so does he, or Democrats think Obama can bring out voters for midterms when his own reelection prospects for 2012 are already being measured and found wanting?

The excitement of 2008 is gone, the Obama mystery has been revealed and so far, not many people on either side of the aisle or down the middle is impressed with the storyline.

That is why Barack Obama and the Democrats, will not be able to "recapture" the enthusiasm of 2008.

Republicans are excited about taking control of the House and perhaps the Senate. Independents are enthused about restoring some semblance of balance to Washington.

Question to ponder: What exactly is there for Democrats to be enthusiastic about?

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Majority Say Their Views Closer to Sarah Palin Than Barack Obama

Via Rasmussen:

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Likely U.S. Voters say their own views are closer to Sarah Palin’s than they are to President Obama’s, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Just 40% say their views are closer to the president’s than to those of the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate.

Among the Political Class, however, 68% say their views are more like Obama’s, while 63% of Mainstream voters describe their views as more like Palin’s.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans and 59% of voters not affiliated with either major party say their views are more like Palin’s. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they think more like the president.

Independents are making their views known as evidenced by these numbers and those reported earlier showing Independents flocking to the GOP.

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Independents Flock To GOP And Tea Party

Via WSJ:

A new comprehensive national survey shows that independent voters—who voted for Barack Obama by a 52%-to-44% margin in the 2008 presidential election—are now moving strongly in the direction of the Republican Party. The survey, conducted by Douglas E. Schoen LLC on behalf of Independent Women's Voice in late August, raises the possibility of a fundamental realignment of independent voters and the dominance of a more conservative electorate.

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their views by 52% to 30%. This movement comes in spite of independents' generally negative views of the GOP—a majority of independents (54%) view the Republicans unfavorably, compared to 39% who have a favorable impression. (The poll also revealed that 48% of independents were either "sympathetic to or supporters of the tea party.")

Yet Republicans still have a 14-point lead overall among independents who say they intend to vote in the upcoming congressional elections (37% to 23%). Forty percent remain undecided.

Independents who say they are certain to vote in the upcoming election break better than two-to-one for the Republicans, 42% to 20%. (The poll consisted of 1,000 respondents who said they were absolutely certain or very likely to vote.). These figures suggest that if the Republican message is compelling enough, the 14-point margin can grow based on turnout. But to achieve that, Republicans need a positive message.

Follow-up interviews of 400 independents from our original poll after Christine O'Donnell's victory last week in the Delaware GOP Senate primary show further deterioration of the Democratic position. The Republican lead in the upcoming congressional election has reached 22 points, 40% to 18%, with all likely-to-vote independents. It is 23 points among those who say they are certain to vote (45% to 22%). Independents also strongly support continuation of the Bush tax cuts for all Americans, as well as oppose any additional infrastructure spending.

What all this means is that Independents do not love the Republican Party, but they sure as hell do despise what Democrats controlling Congress and the Senate and then the White House, has done.

That ladies and gentlemen, is a statement.

Read the whole piece at Wall Street Journal.

Side Note- Notice the portion I put in bold above,where 48 percent of Independents were wither sympathetic or supporters of the Tea Party.

Then read the NYT piece, which the White House is vehemently denying, reporting that their is an internal White House debate on whether or not Democrats should try to "tie" the Tea Party to the GOP.

Tie away dude!!!!!

Since the Tea Party began, just a couple years ago, the Left has claimed they were "AstroTurfing", tried to claim they were racist, extremists, have dedicated an incredible amount of ink to trying to destroy them etc.... and yet the number of those sympathetic to the Tea Party message and those actively supporting them has risen and continues to grow.

The deeper the Democrats get into the hole, the more they just keep digging. Someone once told me that when you notice you are digging so deep you might not be able to crawl out of the hole, it is time to put the shovel down.

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