Republicans 267, Democrats 168 in House

One always hesitates to get way out in front of the crowd or in this case the other political analysts. So far none of the other analysts have been willing to go above a 57 seat gain for the Republicans or a 235 to 200 House in favor of the Republicans. So where do we get off projecting an 89 net seat gain for them?

Unlike other analysts, we have been using the results of the likely voter generic congressional ballots as developed by Gallup over the last 60 years for midterm elections. When you have 15 data points like this, you can apply a regression analysis to develop some mathematical equations that can allow you to predict how many seats the Republicans will wind up taking from the Democrats.

Never before in the last 60 years have the Republicans been able to get a spread of more than 7 points in their favor and that was in 1994. Right now the Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot is 7.3 points in their favor and the Republicans picked up a net 51 seats when it was 7. This already says that the Republicans should do better than a 51 seat gain.

Remember that Gallup is the pollster that has data going back 60 years so they have all that experience in developing a screen to pick out the likely voters from a sample of registered voters. This year Gallup is offering two types of likely voter screens depending upon how many voters actually do turn out to vote. The spread in favor of the Republicans is a whopping 9 to 14 points.

If a 7 point spread got the Republicans a net gain of 51 seats, what would 9 points get them let alone 14? A simple proportional analysis says that 9 is 1.29 times greater than 7 so 51 X 1.57 = 65 seats. On the other hand, 14 is 2 times greater than 7 so 51 X 2 = 102 seats. While this kind of progression is way too simple and way outside any existing data points, it does tell you that our projection of an 89 net seat pickup for the Republicans does not seem so outrageous.

So why do we pick 89 seats instead of 65 or 102? We use results from previous equivalent elections as a starting point and then add in an adjustment for the Obamacare votes and poll results. Actually we project that the Republicans will pick up 91 seats from the Democrats but will lose 3 of their own (DE-AL, IL-10 and LA-3). On the other hand they will gain back their now vacant seat (IN-3) so 178 + 91 - 3 + 1 = 267. This gain means the final generic ballot spread will be 12.5 points in favor of the Republicans.

We go further and try to project which seats will be among the 91 seats the Democrats will lose at Who's Winning the House? As you can see from that table, the 91st seat is Carolyn McCarthy in NY-4. An October poll from McLaughlin and Associates has her up 1 point over the Republican Becker, 46 to 45. That 1 point can be made up in the 8 days remaining before the election. The 92nd seat is Ben Chandler in KY-6 and he is ahead by 4 points in an October poll from Mason-Dixon, 48 to 44. While it is possible for the Republicans to pick up this seat since Chandler is polling under 50%, it is not an odds on bet.

Likewise, Tierney in MA-6 is up 6 and Braley is up 11 in IA-1. On the other hand, in the 95th seat, there is a tie in an August poll from Action Solutions, but that is an old poll so who knows where that race is today. At best, it could make up for one of the ones listed in the first 91 that the Republicans end up losing. The point is that the pickings are pretty slim below that 91st seat so that is why we stopped there.

Republicans 9 Points Ahead On Generic Ballot and Trusted More Than Dems On 8 Of 10 Key Issues

Two Rasmussen polls released today, both good news for Republicans and another set of bad news reports for Democrats who have already suffered a "brutal" weekend of news reports.

First, Rasmussen on the Generic Congressional Ballot:

Election Day is just two weeks away, and Republican candidates hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 17, 2010.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Even more worrisome for Democrats, however, is the finding that among the voters who are most closely following the midterm elections Republicans hold a 55% to 36% lead.

Second Rasmussen poll shows that "voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight out of 10 important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports including the economy and health care."

Democrats take two issues, which Republicans had the last time it was polled but on the issue marked as the most important, the economy, 49 percent of voters trust Republicans with only 39 percent trusting Democrats.

[Update] Gallup's polling shows Republicans ahead in registered voters and when they use the likely voter model Republicans pull ahead by double digits, for both low turnout and high turnout projections.

Independents Flock To GOP And Tea Party

Via WSJ:

A new comprehensive national survey shows that independent voters—who voted for Barack Obama by a 52%-to-44% margin in the 2008 presidential election—are now moving strongly in the direction of the Republican Party. The survey, conducted by Douglas E. Schoen LLC on behalf of Independent Women's Voice in late August, raises the possibility of a fundamental realignment of independent voters and the dominance of a more conservative electorate.

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their views by 52% to 30%. This movement comes in spite of independents' generally negative views of the GOP—a majority of independents (54%) view the Republicans unfavorably, compared to 39% who have a favorable impression. (The poll also revealed that 48% of independents were either "sympathetic to or supporters of the tea party.")

Yet Republicans still have a 14-point lead overall among independents who say they intend to vote in the upcoming congressional elections (37% to 23%). Forty percent remain undecided.

Independents who say they are certain to vote in the upcoming election break better than two-to-one for the Republicans, 42% to 20%. (The poll consisted of 1,000 respondents who said they were absolutely certain or very likely to vote.). These figures suggest that if the Republican message is compelling enough, the 14-point margin can grow based on turnout. But to achieve that, Republicans need a positive message.

Follow-up interviews of 400 independents from our original poll after Christine O'Donnell's victory last week in the Delaware GOP Senate primary show further deterioration of the Democratic position. The Republican lead in the upcoming congressional election has reached 22 points, 40% to 18%, with all likely-to-vote independents. It is 23 points among those who say they are certain to vote (45% to 22%). Independents also strongly support continuation of the Bush tax cuts for all Americans, as well as oppose any additional infrastructure spending.

What all this means is that Independents do not love the Republican Party, but they sure as hell do despise what Democrats controlling Congress and the Senate and then the White House, has done.

That ladies and gentlemen, is a statement.

Read the whole piece at Wall Street Journal.

Side Note- Notice the portion I put in bold above,where 48 percent of Independents were wither sympathetic or supporters of the Tea Party.

Then read the NYT piece, which the White House is vehemently denying, reporting that their is an internal White House debate on whether or not Democrats should try to "tie" the Tea Party to the GOP.

Tie away dude!!!!!

Since the Tea Party began, just a couple years ago, the Left has claimed they were "AstroTurfing", tried to claim they were racist, extremists, have dedicated an incredible amount of ink to trying to destroy them etc.... and yet the number of those sympathetic to the Tea Party message and those actively supporting them has risen and continues to grow.

The deeper the Democrats get into the hole, the more they just keep digging. Someone once told me that when you notice you are digging so deep you might not be able to crawl out of the hole, it is time to put the shovel down.

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CNN and ABC/Wapo Polls Show Republicans Gaining Ground Heading Into Midterms; UPDATE WSJ/NBC Polls Show The Same

Gallup, Rasmussen and now a CNN poll and a ABC/Washington Post poll all shower Democrats with bad news to include a generic congressional gap favoring Republicans as well as trust issues on key areas.

Rasmussen only shows Republicans with a 6 point lead on the generic congressional ballot, whereas Gallup shows an unprecedented 10 point lead for Republicans.

The newer poll from ABC/Washington Post gives Republicans a 13 point advantage among those judged to be "more likely to vote", showing the Democrats still spiraling downward heading into the November midterms.

Wapo:

Among all voters, 47 percent say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage on this question has been rare in past years - and among those most likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53 percent to the Democrats' 40 percent.

Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda. Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.

ABC breakdown:

• Ninety-two percent of Americans say the economy's in bad shape. A mere 24 percent believe it's improving. And for the first time numerically more say Obama's economic program has made the economy worse, 33 percent, than improved it, 30 percent. Views that he's helped the economy have dropped by 9 points since spring.

• A majority, 52 percent, now disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job overall, another first in ABC/Post polls. Intensity increasingly is against him, with those who disapprove "strongly" outnumbering strong approvers by 14 points. A record 57 percent rate him negatively on handling the economy, "strongly" so by an even wider margin, 2-1.

• Seventy-eight percent now describe themselves as dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working, up 14 points just since July to the most since October 1992. That includes 25 percent who are "angry," tying the record. Among likely voters, 30 percent are angry – and they favor Republican candidates by a vast 47-point margin.

CNN asks questions of trust in key areas and again, Republicans come out ahead on the Economy 46 to 43 percent, Foreign Affairs 47 to 44 percent, Afghanistan 45 to 42 percent, Terrorism 54 to 34 percent, Taxes 46 to 43 percent, Federal Budget 46 to 40 percent and Illegal Immigration 53 to 35 percent.

Democrats in the CNN poll hold the lead on 2 out of the 9 issues, Social Security/Medicare and Healthcare, Dems lead with 1 percent on healthcare and 2 percent on SS and Medicare.

This CNN poll on trust issues follows both Rasmussen and Gallup polls showing the same pattern.

Rasmussen showed Republicans trusted more on 10 issues and Gallup gave Republicans seven of nine key issues.

Rasmussen was the only survey using a "likely voter" survey until ABC/Wapo specified it in their poll released today which severely changed their numbers from a 2 percent lead for Republicans to a 13 percent lead..

[Update] Wall Street Journal/NBC also conducted a poll where Republicans and Dems tie until they use the "likely voters" model as most polling organizations tend to start using as election draw closer to get a predictive value.

When the likely voter model is used, WSJ/NBC also finds Republicans leading by 9 points, 49 to 40 percent.

When voters overall are asked whether they prefer that November's vote produce a Congress controlled by Democrats or by Republicans, they split evenly, 43% favoring Democrats and 43% Republicans.

But among those who appear most likely to vote, based on their level of interest in the campaign and their history of voting, the Republicans own a dramatic 49% to 40% advantage. If that kind of lead holds, Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, states "We all know that there is a hurricane coming for the Democrats. We just don’t know if it will be a Category 4 or a Category 5"

Even more interesting is among those expressing a high interest in voting:

The survey shows that among likely voters — based on their interest and past voting history — 49 percent prefer a Republican-controlled Congress while 40 percent want one run by Democrats. Among those expressing a high interest in voting, that GOP lead increases 18 points, 53 percent to 35 percent.

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Anti-Democratic Sentiment Pivotal In Midterms

Gallup, who recently reported that Republicans lead by 10 percentage points in the Generic Congressional Ballot, comes out with another report showing that more people will be voting against the Democrats in the 2010 midterm election than those voting for the Republicans.

Gallup, titled "Anti-Democratic Sentiment Aids GOP Lead in 2010 Vote."

The Republicans' lead in the congressional generic ballot over the past month may be due as much to voters' rejecting the Democrats as embracing the Republicans. Among voters backing Republican candidates, 44% say their preference is "more a vote against the Democratic candidate," while 48% say it is "more a vote for the Republican candidate.

Furthermore, putting aside Republicans voting for Republicans and Democrats voting for Democrats, the numbers I have been watching this year are the Independents, those not affiliated with either party, because those voters will be what tips the scale one direction or the other.

In July 2010, Gallup showed where Independents stand:

By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points.

August 2010, reports came out stating Independents were backing away from support of Obama and Democrats.

Gallup- Implications:

Gallup finds a higher proportion of voting against the incumbent party than in past midterm election cycles, with close to half of Republican voters saying their vote is based on opposition to the Democrats. This reflects frustration with the direction of the country under President Obama and the Democratic Congress -- the poll finds 20% of Americans satisfied with the way thing are going in the country. Along the same lines, 35% of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes President Obama, while a smaller 27% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports him.

Read the whole thing.

News like unemployment rising from 9.5 percent to 9.6 percent, according to the Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not going to help public sentiment get any better for Democratic politicians heading into the midterms.

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Gallup: Gop Takes 'Unprecedented' Lead On Generic Ballot

Gallup reports the GOP has taken what they call an "unprecedented" 10 point lead (51 percent to 41 percent) over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot, where the question of Republican or Democrat is asked without specific names.

More importantly, Republicans also hold a 25 point lead in enthusiasm among registered voters (50 percent to 25 percent).

Rasmussens latest findings on the Generic Congressional Ballot is the GOP ahead by six points.

Interestingly, there is no surprise that Democrats back their candidate by 83 percent and Republicans back theirs by 85 percent. The numbers to watch for are the Independents which break towards the Republicans by a 21 percent margin with 44 percent favoring Republicans and 23 favoring Democrats.

The difference between the Gallup and Rasmussen polling methods is Gallup used registered voters and Rasmussen used likely voters.

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