Tea Party Debate: GOP Candidates Attack Perry But Newt Kept His Eye On The Ball

Governor Rick Perry walked on to the stage at the Tea Party debate last night as the official front runner according to the RCP average using a variety of polls from multiple organizations.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal sat in the audience as Perry's guest after issuing a statement giving Perry his endorsement.

Jindal released a statement Monday saying, “Rick Perry is the candidate who can lead our party to victory in 2012."

“His record on job creation simply cannot be beat, and the one million jobs he’s helped create as governor is a stark contrast to the 2.4 million jobs lost on President Obama’s watch."

If Americans watching the debate didn't already know that Perry was the front runner in the field of GOP candidates which include the Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman, they certainly would have figured it out fast enough by the way the GOP field of candidates piled up attacking Rick Perry on stage.

The headline on the original NYT article read "Perry Wears a Bull's-Eye at G.O.P. Debate," yet when clicking the link provided over at Memeorandum, the headline now reads "Perry Is Target as Republican Candidates Take Aim."

Politisite.com has provided transcripts of the debate, part one , two, three and four.

As I said in a previous post about the last debate, people truly interested in the answers the candidates gave, but didn't watch the debate, can click the four links above and read those answers. Determine and interpret them yourselves, no one needs a political pundit, writer, reporter or blogger telling them what they should or shouldn't think.

What I noticed clearly from last night and I will quote the whole segment here below, is that while Newt Gingrich is not my candidate of choice, he kept his eye on the ball, which is to unseat Obama in 2012.

BLITZER: Governor Perry, speaking of Social Security, you’ve said in the past it’s a Ponzi scheme, an absolute failure, unconstitutional, but today you wrote an article in USA Today saying it must be saved and reformed, very different tone. Why?

PERRY: Well, first off, the people who are on Social Security today need to understand something. Slam-dunk guaranteed, that program is going to be there in place for those. Those individuals that are moving towards being on Social Security, that program’s going to be there for them when they arrive there.

But the idea that we have not had the courage to stand up and look Americans in the face, young mid-career professionals or kids that are my children’s age and look them in the eye and said, listen, this is a broken system. It has been called a ponzi scheme by many people long before me. But no one’s had the courage to stand up and say, here is how we’re going to reform it.

We’re going to transform it for those in those mid-career ages, but we’re going to fix it so that our young Americans that are going out into the workforce today will know without a doubt that there were some people who came along that didn’t lie to them, that didn’t try to go around the edges and told them the truth.

BLITZER: Governor Romney, you said that Governor Perry’s position on Social Security is, quote, unacceptable and could even obliterate the Republican Party. Are you saying he could not, as Republican nominee, beat Barack Obama?

ROMNEY: No, what I’m saying is that what he just said, I think most people agree with, although the term ponzi scheme I think is over the top and unnecessary and frightful to many people. But the real issue is in writing his book, Governor Perry pointed out that in his view that Social Security is unconstitutional, that this is not something the federal government ought to be involved in, that instead it should be given back to the states.

And I think that view, and the view that somehow Social Security has been forced on us over the past 70 years that by any measure, again quoting book, by any measure Social Security has been a failure, this is after 70 years of tens of millions of people relying on Social Security, that’s a very different matter.

So the financing of Social Security, we’ve all talked about at great length. In the last campaign four years around, John McCain said it was bankrupt. I put in my book a series of proposals on how to get it on sound financial footing so that our kids can count on it not just our current seniors.

But the real question is does Governor Perry continue to believe that Social Security should not be a federal program, that it’s unconstitutional and it should be returned to the states or is he going to retreat from that view?

BLITZER: Let’s let Governor Perry respond. You have 30 seconds.

PERRY: If what you’re trying to say is that back in the ’30s and the ’40s that the federal government made all the right decision, I disagree with you. And it’s time for us to get back to the constitution and a program that’s been there 70 or 80 years, obviously we’re not going to take that program away. But for people to stand up and support what they did in the ’30s or what they’re doing in the 2010s is not appropriate for America .

ROMNEY: But the question is, do you still believe that Social Security should be ended as a federal program as you did six months ago when your book came out and returned to the states or do you want to retreat from taht?

PERRY: I think we ought to have a conversation.

ROMNEY: We’re having that right now, governor. We’re running for president.

PERRY: And I’ll finish this conversation. But the issue is, are there ways to move the states into Social Security for state employees or for retirees? We did in the state of Texas back in the 1980s. I think those types of thoughtful conversations with America, rather than trying to scare seniors like you’re doing and other people, it’s time to have a legitimate conversation in this country about how to fix that program where it’s not bankrupt and our children actually know that there’s going to be a retirement program there for them.

ROMNEY: Governor, the term ponzi scheme is what scared seniors, number one. And number two, suggesting that Social Security should no longer be a federal program and returned to the states and unconstitutional is likewise frightening.

Look, there are a lot of bright people who agree with you. And that’s your view. I happen to have a different one. I think that Social Security is an essential program that we should change the way we’re funding it. You called it a criminal…

PERRY: You said if people did it in the private sector it would be called criminal. That’s in your book.

ROMNEY: Yeah, what I said was…

(APPLAUSE)

ROMNEY: Governor Perry you’ve got to quote me correctly. You said it’s criminal. What I said was congress taking money out of the Social Security trust fund is like criminal and that is and it’s wrong.

BLITZER: Congressman Paul, let me expand this conversation. Do you agree with Governor Perry that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme?

PAUL: Well, I agree that Social Security is broke. We spent all the money and it’s on its last legs unless we do something. One bill that I had in congress never got passed was to prevent the congress from spending any of that money on the wars and all the nonsense that we do around the world.

Now the other thing that I would like to see done is a transition. I think it’s terrible that the Social Security system is in the — the problems it has, but if people wouldn’t have spent the money we would be OK.

Now, what I would like to do is to allow all the young people to get out of Social Security and go on their own. Now, the big question is, is how would the funding occur?

BLITZER: All right. Hold that thought for a minute, because I want Herman Cain to get involved.

Are you with Governor Perry that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme?

CAIN: I don’t care what you call it, it’s broken. And here’s my solution.

(APPLAUSE)

CAIN: Start with optional personal retirement accounts. In 1981, the Galveston County employees, they opted out because that was a very short window of opportunity. They took it.

Today, when people retire in Galveston County , Texas , they retire making at least 50 percent more than they would ever get out of Social Security.

(APPLAUSE)

Secondly, allow younger workers to have personal retirement accounts as an option.

Now, to answer this gentleman’s question, current seniors will not be affected. It’s to give the option to the younger workers.

The Galveston County model worked, and it also worked in the small country of Chile . Instead of giving it to the states, let’s give it back to the workers. That’s what personal retirement accounts will do.

(APPLAUSE)

BLITZER: Governor Huntsman, when it comes to reforming Social Security, is anything from your perspective off the table?

HUNTSMAN: I don’t think anything should be off the table except maybe some of the drama that’s playing out here on this floor today. I mean, to hear these two go at it over here, it’s almost incredible.

You’ve got Governor Romney, who called it a fraud in his book “No Apology.” I don’t know if that was written by Kurt Cobain or not. And then you’ve got Governor Perry, who is calling this a Ponzi scheme.

All I know, Wolf, is that we’re frightening the American people who just want solutions. And this party isn’t going to win in 2012 unless we get our act together and fix the problem.

We all know that we’ve got entitlement problems, we’ve got Medicare, we’ve got Social — the fixes are there. I mean, the Ryan plan is there, for heaven’s sake.

We’ve got the answers. We don’t have leadership. That’s the problem.

BLITZER: Speaker Gingrich, would you raise the retirement age for Social Security recipients?

GINGRICH: No, not necessarily, but let me start with — I’m not particularly worried about Governor Perry and Governor Romney frightening the American people when President Obama scares them every single day.

(APPLAUSE)

GINGRICH: This is eating into my time.

Let me just say to all of you –

BLITZER: Let me just pinpoint the question. What would you do to fix Social Security?

GINGRICH: OK. But can I also expand for a second? Because that was not a rhetorical joke.

President Obama twice said recently he couldn’t guarantee delivering the checks to Social Security recipients. Now, why should young people who are 16 to 25 years old have politicians have the power for the rest of their life to threaten to take away their Social Security?

Gingrich then went on to answer the question.

Fact is, the GOP candidates trailing so far behind Rick Perry, sort of have to go on the attack because the initial spike Perry received in polling did not dwindle after the newness of his candidacy wore off, but instead started expanding and the candidates naturally felt the need to try to take him down a notch.

Personally I don't think Gingrich stands a chance of becoming the GOP nominee to go up against Barack Obama in 2012, but I do hope he stays in the race until the end, because he does know how to keep the endgame in mind, which isn't what Republican candidate eventually receives the nomination, it is the battle that begins afterward against Barack Obama's campaign to be reelected for four more years of his policies and agenda.

A CNN poll yesterday showed that Perry has a double digit lead over all the other candidates and that the plurality of Republican voters feel he is more electable against Obama in 2012.

I believe after last night's debate, that still holds true.

At this point I see this GOP primary as a lead up to Rick Perry preparing for a major boxing bout against Barack Obama and the GOP candidates that piled up on him last night are the sparring partners helping him prepare.


[Update] Hot Air's Ed Morrissey: 'Newt as VP?" - Last night I summed up my feelings on Twitter about Gingrich, writing that I “[d]on’t want him as our nominee, but love having him on our side.”

PS- Next debate will be presented by Fox News, on September 22.

.

Polling News: Obama Sinks, Perry Rises And California Sides With Republicans On Economy

Quite a bit of polling news today starting with a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, via MSNBC, which shows Barack Obama is at the lowest point of his presidency where he has dropped 3 points since July on his overall approval rating putting it at 44 percent, his handling of the economy earns him only a 37 percent approval and 19 percent believe the country is on the right track.

Perhaps most ominously for Obama, a majority of poll takers — 54 percent — think he's facing a longer-term setback from which he's unlikely to recover. Back in January, just 39 percent agreed with that assessment.

Full poll results found here.(PDF)

That poll is followed up with a a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, to which Wapo headlines their article about it with "Obama ratings sink to new lows as hope fades."

More than 60 percent of those surveyed say they disapprove of the way the president is handling the economy and, what has become issue No. 1, the stagnant jobs situation. Just 43 percent now approve of the job he is doing overall, a new career low; 53 percent disapprove, a new high.

Another poll shows that Obama's economic messaging is not resonating well in the very blue state of California which is suffering from 12 percent unemployment and while the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll which finds that "many would rather adhere to party orthodoxy than compromise to address the current economic problems," yet the plurality of respondents, 49 percent, agree with Republicans that slashing government spending to restrain the deficit will better lead to prosperity instead of Obama/Democrat's message for strategic government investments to stimulate the economy where only 37 percent side with them.

"The argument of 'We need to cut the size of government, we need to reduce the deficit' has won, even in California," said David Kanevsky, research director for American Viewpoint, a Republican firm that co-directed the bipartisan poll. "Stimulus is almost a four-letter word here."

With California unemployment mired at 12%, the electorate is clearly dissatisfied with the status quo. Nearly 3 in 4 voters say the country is on the wrong track, up sharply from the 55% who felt that way in November 2009.

Perhaps that is why Democrats have dropped the word "stimulus" almost entirely from their vocabulary as The Hill reports.

Democrats are now being careful to frame their job-creation agenda in language excluding references to any stimulus, even though their favored policies for ending the deepest recession since the Great Depression are largely the same.

Obama's much talked about upcoming jobs speech will undoubtedly also exclude the word "stimulus" and instead people will hear the word "investment" to mean more spending and stimulus.

Gallup finds that since Obama's signature legislation dubbed Obamacare was passed, the number of uninsured people has increased, not decreased.

CNN reports on a different set of polls showing that Rick Perry has widened his lead in the GOP field of candidates for the presidential election of 2012.

The Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll has Perry atop the field with 36 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 17 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul tied at 10 percent.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll delivered similar results. Perry is 38 percent of respondent's first choice for the nomination, followed by Romney at 23 percent, Paul at 9 percent and Bachmann at 8 percent.

Last but not least, Rasmussen just released their Generic Presidential Ballot which shows that a generic Republican candidate gets 49 percent support while Obama only receives 41 percent.

Attaching the name of the GOP front runner, Rick Perry, to that question, Perry leads Obama with 44 percent to Obama's 41 percent.

The polling news today is quite ominous for Obama's reelection chances in 2012 and while polls are a wonderful way to track patterns and trends, they are still just a snapshot into the minds of Americans at any given time.

.

Polls: Majority Disapproves Of Obama's Handling Of Economy

CNN:

But only 34 percent approve of how the president is handling economic issues, with 65 percent saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the economy. Thirty-three percent give him a thumbs up on the budget deficit and 37 percent approving of how he's dealing with unemployment.



"Two-thirds of Democrats continue to approve of Obama's economic record, but seven out of ten independents disapprove. Not surprisingly, more than nine out of ten Republicans also disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy....

CNN isn't the only polling releasing all new lows for Obama, as Quinnipiac University headlines with "September 1, 2011 - Obama Approval Hits All-Time Low, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Economy Is Getting Worse, More Voters Say ."



In fact, looking at the national average, using a variety of polls by multiple organizations has disapproval of Obama's job performance as a whole at 53 percent with approval at 42 percent.



Is it any wonder that one GOP candidate, Rick Perry, has just gained a lead over Obama in the latest Rasmussen poll?



.

Obama Approval Among Women Goes From 70 Percent to 41 Percent

Yet another demographic Obama loses support from:



Women:

Barack Obama defeated Sen. John McCain 56 percent to 43 percent among female voters in the 2008 presidential election, according to the network exit poll, and Obama’s job performance as president won the support of 70 percent of women early in his tenure.

But Gallup polling last week showed that only 41 percent of women now say they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president. That is an all-time low--down from the previous low of 43 percent, which is what Obama’s approval had been among women in each of the previous three weeks.

Obama’s approval has dropped 11 points among women over the past three months. In the last week of May, according to the Gallup poll, the president’s approval among females was at 52 percent.

Obama’s approval among women peaked at 70 percent in the week of Jan. 26-Feb. 1, 2009, his first full week in office.

.

It is called "Buyer's remorse" and almost every Demographic is suffering from it as a new poll by CNN and ORC International finds that 27 percent of Democrats would like to see their party nominate a candidate other than Barack Obama for president in 2012. (Source)



.

Multiple Polls Put Rick Perry As GOP Frontrunner And Other Perry News

While there is still over a year to go before the 2012 presidential election and preliminary polling is just that, patterns and trends are key to see which candidates are rising and which are falling behind.



FiveThirtyEight (leans Dem) shows Governor Rick Perry has risen above every other GOP candidate in the race to see who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2012. Perry has done this in a matter of two weeks since he has declared his candidacy while his name recognition is still shy of Mitt Romney's.



This finding is consistent among multiple polls from a variety of polling organizations.

Primary polls can be erratic, so the rule is not to get too worked up about any one set of numbers. But now there have been five surveys conducted since Rick Perry announced his presidential campaign — one each from Gallup, Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling, and two from YouGov. Each shows Mr. Perry having vaulted into a lead over Mitt Romney.

On average, Mr. Perry gets 26 percent of the vote in the new surveys, as compared to 16 percent for Mr. Romney. By comparison, in polls conducted in the month prior to Mr. Perry’s announcement, he averaged 14 percent to Mr. Romney’s 21 percent.

David Limbaugh, tweets an image of a younger Barack Obama compared to a younger Rick Perry .. Via The Politico



Since we are on the topic of Perry, among many many others writing about Perry, head over to Daily Beast for a very entertaining endorsement for Perry by one of his former opponents for Governor, by Kinky Friedman.



Teaser:

So would I support Rick Perry for president? Hell, yes! As the last nail that hasn’t been hammered down in this country, I agree with Rick that there are already too damn many laws, taxes, regulations, panels, committees, and bureaucrats. While Obama is busy putting the hyphen between “anal” and “retentive” Rick will be rolling up his sleeves and getting to work.



A still, small voice within keeps telling me that Rick Perry’s best day may yet be ahead of him, and so too, hopefully, will be America’s.

Yet another article pertaining to Perry's candidacy shows that Perry's rise has struck fear into Team Obama as well if their latest email blast to Texas supporters is any indication. They want dirt, they want complaints against Perry to use against him and they even set up an online form for people to use to that purpose.



Last (for now) but not least, Perry told Laura Ingraham on her radio show that "Mitt is finally recognizing that the Massachusetts healthcare plan he passed is a huge problem for him."



He is right, that is one issue conservative voters and many many independent voters will not forget, especially since Obamacare is so similar to Romney's Mass. healthcare law and the majority of Americans are still opposed to that.



YouTube clip below is the the audio of that interview:







The headlines are focusing on Perry's comments about Romneycare, but in the interview above, Ingraham and Perry discuss many other issues, so if you have the time, listen to the whole thing.



.

Confidence In Obama Declines And He May Lose Pennsylvania

Yesterday, Friday August 19, 2011, was a very bad news day for Barack Obama as headline after headline screamed out failure, Democrats losing confidence in his job performance and future, unemployment rising in 28 states for July, he lost 36 percentage points in the Hispanic demographic since he took office, mortgage rates hit a 50 year low, stocks plunged, etc..... all headlines for one day.



Today is not much better as we see that polling in the very blue state of Pennsylvania, a state almost everyone agrees Obama will need badly to win reelection in 2012, is being called "dismal" for Obama.

President Barack Obama, who political experts say will need a win in Pennsylvania to retain the White House, dipped to 35 percent approval among the state's registered voters, according to a Muhlenberg College poll released Friday.



The results come on the heels of a bad week in polls for Obama that showed him first dropping to 39 percent nationwide in Gallup's daily tracking poll. Then another set of Gallup results Thursday showed only 26 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is handling the economy.



These numbers are a huge blow to Obama who won the state handily in 2008, and a significant drop in just a few weeks from when Quinnipiac University polled Pennsylvania voters and found the president with 43 percent job approval.

It isn't just PA where Obama is seeing news like this, it is across the country and across the demographic board where he is suffering a horrendous steady decline in support.

The trend for all 27 groups has been negative. And although the margins of error on this calculation (represented by the red bars in the chart) are fairly high, the decline has been statistically significant in 24 of 27 cases.



Three groups in particular stand out for having especially large declines. First is what Gallup terms “pure independent” voters, among whom Mr. Obama’s approval rating has dropped by 10 points since the start of the year. These pure independents are true swing voters; Gallup defines the category to exclude the many voters who call themselves independent but in fact lean toward one or another party and behave like partisans.

Is Obama "doomed" yet?



I do not think anyone can be 100% sure, but what is sure is that if something doesn't happen to change the pattern being seen of an Obama free fall in polls, steadily heading downward, if the economy doesn't completely turn around in the next six months, if unemployment continues to rise, then any slightly right of the middle GOP candidate can wipe him out in the 2012 election.



(Cartoon above by Nate Beeler, via Townhall)

Polls: High Obama Disapproval, Party Trust and Taxes Vs Spending Cuts

Multiple polls from Rasmussen over the weekend show that the GOP has gained the trust on economic issue over Democrats by a 10 percent margin as well as being trusted more on 9 out of ten issues presented to likely voters, Barack Obama is showing the highest level of Strong Disapproval since last November and the majority of voters have more fear the debt deal being negotiated in Washington will raise taxes too much and cut spending too little.

Rasmussen- Trust on issues

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 45% trust Republicans more when it comes to handling economic issues, while 35% put more trust in Democrats. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

.......

Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on nine of those 10 issues. In May, Republicans led on just six issues after being trusted more on all 10 in early January. Two years ago Democrats were trusted more than Republicans on most issues. Still, there are several issues that the parties are close on in terms of trust.

Health care, which voters rank second behind the economy in terms of importance, is an issue the GOP holds a tight 46% to 43% advantage on. Before President Obama was elected, Democrats had a huge advantage on this issue. During Election 2010, the advantage switched to the GOP. In May, the parties were essentially tied.

.......

Taxes are a big part of the debt ceiling debate, and voters trust Republicans more than Democrats by a 46% to 40% margin on that issue.

.......

The one issue Democrats do hold an advantage in trust on is education, 42% to 38%. Nineteen percent (19%) aren’t sure which party they trust more, however.

The parties are nearly tied on the issue of Social Security, with Republicans holding a statistically insignificant 42% to 40% lead. In May, Democrats barely edged the GOP on this issue.

Republicans hold a slight 38% to 35% edge in the area of government ethics and corruption, a reversal from the modest lead Democrats held in May. But 27% of voters don’t know who to trust more on this issue.

On immigration, Republicans hold a sizable 47% to 33% advantage, with 21% of voters are undecided.

.......

As is always the case, Republicans hold the trust advantage when it comes to national security and the War on Terror and the handling of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Rasmussen- Taxes and spending cuts

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 62% of Likely U.S. Voters are worried more that Congress and President Obama will raise taxes too much rather than too little in any deal to end the debt ceiling debate. Just 26% fear they’ll raise taxes too little. Twelve percent (12%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Similarly, 56% worry that Congress and the president will cut spending too little in the final debt ceiling deal, while only 25% are concerned that they will cut spending too much. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided.

Rasmussen- Obama Approval/Disapproval

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21 (see trends).

That’s the highest level of Strong Disapproval since last November.

......

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Once again I will point out that polling, especially this far away from the presidential election, is simply a snapshot of how voters feel at the time and many things can happen to turn the numbers around. At this stage polling is best used to see patterns and trends which a change from one week from another or a bounce stemming from a certain event generally does not alter those patterns or trends in the long run.

.

Brutal Poll Numbers For 'One Term' Obama

"I will be held accountable. .I've got four years and.... A year from now, I think people are going to see that we're starting to make some progress, but there's still going to be some pain out there.... If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition."---- Barack Obama February 2009 (Video here)

A Bloomberg National Poll conducted June 17-20 shows worrisome results for Barack Obama and his chances of reelection in 2012, with a 44 to 34 margin saying they are worse off now than they were when Obama took office, less than 25 percent saying they see any signs of improvement and two-thirds of the country saying they believe the country is on the wrong track.

The portion of Americans who say they believe the U.S. is on the wrong track is higher than it was at any point during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, when unemployment peaked at 10.8 percent after the 1981-82 recession, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. The ABC poll showed the wrong-track number during Reagan’s first term peaking at 57 percent in October 1982. The Bloomberg poll shows 66 percent of Americans think the U.S. is going in the wrong direction now.

Other results from the poll show that 36 percent of respondents say they definitely will not vote for Obama in 2012 with 30 percent saying they will. More concerning for Obama though is the spread when likely Independent voters are questioned.

Among likely independent voters, only 23 percent said they will back his re-election, while 36 percent said they definitely will look for another candidate.

Believe it or not, the figures above are not even the worse news for Obama.

The bad news is the results when respondents are asked about Obama's job performance on the economy.

Obama’s performance ratings drop significantly when the focus turns to his management of the economy, jobs and deficits. By a margin of 61 percent to 32 percent, Americans disapprove of the job Obama is doing to tackle the budget deficit. Fifty-seven percent of respondents disapproved of his efforts to create jobs and overall 57 percent disapproved of his handling of the economy.

There is a silver lining here for Obama because by a margin of 61 percent to 37 percent Americans say they believe that Obama will have had his chance to make the economy “substantially better” by the end of 2012.

Emphasis mine because while that is good news for Obama is it also bad news for Obama because nothing he has done has impacted the economy and while respondents believe he will have had his "chance" to make a difference, Obama has shown no desire to change the way he is handling the economy and the 2012 election is a little under a year and a half away.

Barack Obama has already blown that chance.


[Update] Top of the Ticket has a must read and reminds readers of Reagan's closing lines in Cleveland during the last debate of the 1980 campaign against President Jimmy Carter.

Reagan said:

Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago?

Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago?

And if you answer all of those questions yes, why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have.

Those questions are as relevant today and they were then.

Kudos to Andrew Malcolm for reminding us of them.

.

Gallup: 44 Percent For Generic Republican, 39 Percent For Obama

Earlier we described some devastating news for Obama and Gallup just provided some more.

Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican Party's candidate" and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup's June update.

Gallup does not consider the 5 percentage point lead statistically significant but with 17 months until the 2012 presidential election and Obama's dwindling poll numbers, rising unemployment, high foreclosures, tanking economy, increased gas prices and an out of control deficit, the numbers do not look good for Barack Obama heading into 2012.

.

Gallup: Plurality Opposed To Raising Debt Ceiling: Far Left Thinks Americans Too Stupid To Understand Issue

Welcome Mahablog readers, discussion continues at a followup post.

The debt ceiling is a cap set by Congress on the amount of debt the federal government can legally borrow and by a 47 percent to 19 percent margin with 34 percent saying they don't know enough to say, a plurality of Americans are against raising the debt ceiling.

Even more worrisome for Congress members and Barack Obama is that 57 percent of Americans are closely following the public discussion about raising the debt ceiling. Especially members that are up for reelection in 2012.

A majority of Americans (57%) say they are closely following the news about "discussions to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow by law." Republicans are following the issue more closely than are Democrats and independents; upper-income Americans are following it more closely than lower-income Americans; and those with a postgraduate education more so than those with a high school education or less.

More on the implications over at Gallup.

The Hill:

Republicans and some Democrats have said that they will not vote to raise the debt ceiling without serious spending cuts and fiscal reforms attached. But President Obama and Democratic leaders have urged Republicans not to play politics with the vote, arguing that failing to hike the limit would lead to a debt default that would send shockwaves throughout world financial markets.

Considering more Americans by a very large margin do not want to see the debt ceiling raised than those that do, Democrats can cry foul about attaching spending cuts and fiscal reform conditions and call it "playing politics" all they want, but Republicans who campaigned on these issues and were handed control of the House of Representatives and a net gain in the Senate in 2010, understand that without those attachments they will be publicly breaking trust with the voters that elected them.

As far as the so-called progressive left is concerned, Americans simply are too stupid to actually understand the issue.

But my impression is that most people in this country aren’t even being exposed to basic explanations of the issue. They just hear “debt” and “raise,” and they’re agin’ it.

Then again that is the same old song the left like to sing whenever the majority or plurality of Americans disagree with them. In their minds the American public isn't educated enough on (insert issue here), the American public aren't capable of looking into an issue and making their own determination.

I completely disagree with that. I believe the American public is watching the issue closely, they understand the ceiling is going to be raised but want to make sure the endless merry-go-round of borrowing, spending and being forced to borrow more because Washington overspends, ends.

Poll after poll done' this year, from a variety of polling organizations, show that the economy, jobs and the national deficit are the top issues in the minds of Americans.

American voters are watching, they are engaged more than I have ever seen in my 40+ years and I seriously doubt they appreciate being told they are too stupid to understand what they are seeing.

[Update 5/15/11] Maha responds and I respond back, all links found here.

.

Voters Nearly Three Times More Fiscally And Socially Conservative Than Liberal

29 percent vs 10 percent, almost three times the amount of voters self identify as both socially and fiscally conservatives than those claiming to be socially and fiscally liberal.

The breakdown when the two areas are separated are in the poll numbers as well over at Rasmussen.

Gallup and Pew have both previously found conservatives outnumber both liberals and moderates as well. (Links to those polls below)

Voters remain more conservative fiscally than socially, but 29% characterize themselves as both fiscal and social conservatives. By contrast, only 10% of Likely U.S. Voters say they are liberal in both areas, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Rasmussen is not the only polling organization that has question American's political ideological references, in January and June of 2010, Gallup found that people self identifying as conservatives continue to outnumber both liberals and moderates.

Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. Gallup finds 42% of Americans describing themselves as either very conservative or conservative. This is up slightly from the 40% seen for all of 2009 and contrasts with the 20% calling themselves liberal or very liberal.

Pew Research Center in July of 2010 found "40% of voters describe their own political views as conservative (either conservative or very conservative), 36% as moderate, and 22% as liberal (including very liberal)."

Furthermore Pew found that more voters consider the Democratic party to be "very" liberal (26 percent) than voters that see the Republican party as "very" conservative (18 percent).



What This Could Mean To 2012 Presidential Election

More than two years in to Barack Obama's presidency, Americans have gotten a chance to see his political agenda vs his campaign rhetoric. For the first two years Barack Obama had Democrats that were in control of both the Senate and House of Representatives (which changed after 2010 midterms and now the House is controlled by the GOP) and the general public saw Obamacare pushed through and become law against the majority opposition, consistent opposition, from the public at large.

To this day, a year after Obamacare was passed, the public, according to multiple polls by a variety of organizations, averages a 52.9 percent opposition.

Note- Obamacare was used as just one example of the liberal political agenda Obama has jammed through over the last two years.

By the numbers

As of April 2011, 57 percent of of Likely Voters believe Barack Obama is "more liberal" than the voters and only 28 percent believing his political views are "about the same".

According to Gallup in June of 2010, most Independent voters found that Democrats were "too liberal".

Add to all that, an average from multiple polls shows that 59.2 percent of Americans believe the country is going in the wrong direction with only 32.8 percent believing the opposite.

Crossing Wall Street has provided a chart showing "Since 1948, ten presidents have run for re-election. Three times the unemployment rate was 7.4% or more in November of the election year. Each one of those times, the incumbent president has been defeated."

Unemployment is now at 9 percent as of the last government report.

The killing of Osama bin Laden provided Obama with a small bounce in numbers for his handling of terrorism but according to CNN polling his numbers for handling the deficit and economy still lost percentage points over the same time span.

Last but not least from USA McClatchy/Marist poll, April 2011, 44 percent of registered voters say they definitely plan to vote against Obama, with 37 percent saying they definitely plan to vote for him and 18 percent unsure.

Taking all the data above, all the polls from different sources into consideration and despite Obama's slight bump in ratings from the bin Laden raid which is already dwindling, (and which Obama is now using in his campaign re-election speeches) it is hard to imagine that "being the incumbent" advantage will balance the scales with public dissatisfaction with Obama's performance after two years in the White House.

While I believe historical data and polling are indicative of patterns and trends and therefore is always worth taking into consideration, there is no historical data which compares to the situation as it stands now.

Unemployment is higher than most years since 1948, our deficit has never been over $14 trillion and our spending and borrowing has never been as high as it is today, so there is no parallel for comparison.

We are literally in uncharted territory here and that, above all else, should terrify Barack Obama when looking at his chances to be reelected in 2012.

There is every likelihood that Barack Obama will be a one term President.

[Update] Saw this over at Memorandum after I hit publish, so adding it down here.

Gallup Headline: Obama's Approval Bump Hasn't Transferred to 2012 Prospects- Obama still running neck and neck with unnamed Republican candidate.

.

Media Outlets File Freedom of Information Act Requests For bin Laden Raid Photos

The Associated Press has filed a Freedom of Information Act request to force the Obama administration to produce the photographic evidence taken during the raid that led to the death of al-Qeada leader, Osama bin Laden.

Politico, Fox News, Judicial Watch and Citizens United have all also filed FOIA requests.

There are not many that don't believe bin Laden is dead, al-Qaeda even confirmed it to their followers, but following the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, White House officials and mouth pieces have managed to bungle the story of the sequence of events so badly (26+ different versions) that the public is left wondering what is true, what really went down, in what order and why won't the administration release visual proof.

Michael Oreskes, senior managing editor at The Associated Press, states the reasoning behind the AP's FOIA request as being "This information is important for the historical record."

Also:

For Oreskes, the photo is an important piece of evidence to establish what happened during the Navy SEALs raid on bin Laden's Abbottabad compound. "In the week since the raid there's been a whole series of story-lines about what happened in this raid," said Oreskes. "At this point, anything that might shed more light on what occurred is potentially quite newsworthy. So we would like this imagery to fully understand what happened during this event."

"I can't tell you what understanding we would get," he prefaced. "But we would like to see it and compare it with other things we're being told about this raid both by U.S. officials and officials in other countries."

Perhaps so, but one glaring reason to release the photo is accuracy. The American public's right to know, to see for themselves, the visual evidence of the death of the man who bragged about giving the order for the 9/11 attacks that killed so many and threw our country into complete shock.

Another reason is the photo of bin Laden dead would, no matter how gruesome the photo is, also give visual forensic evidence one way or another of bullet entry positioning, angle of entry point, etc...

Personally, I wouldn't care if bin Laden was executed on his knees, shot while sleeping or taken out while on his feet due to concerns of a bomb strapped to his body or his ability to reach for nearby weapons.

I would understand redacting portions of the video of the raid that showed SEAL member's faces, for example, but the AP is right, the death of bin Laden is history and as such should have as much factual data available to the public, not just the ever changing stories the White House has put out there.


Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz makes a very good point:

The president's decision to suppress the remaining photographic evidence is disturbing on many levels. First, it is wrong on its merits. The public is used to seeing visual portrayals of dead bodies. They are routinely shown on television and in movies. Anyone who has served as a juror or a courtroom observer in a homicide cases has seen bodies riddled with bullets or afflicted with stab wounds. We are mature enough to endure viewing such visual evidence if we choose to. Nor is there any real risk that these photographs will inflame Muslim or Arab sensibilities, any more than the photographs of Saddam Hussein did.

On a more fundamental level, I have serious doubts whether the president has the legal or constitutional authority to suppress these photographs. As Commander in Chief, he had the authority to order the kill operation, but in a country governed by the First Amendment, the president may lack the authority to decide what is published and what is suppressed. It would establish a terrible precedent for the Commander in Chief to be given the sole authority to determine what the public has the right to see and know, especially when the sole justification for suppression is a matter of judgment regarding the possible offensiveness of the photographs.

In a democracy, doubts must always be resolved in favor of disclosure, particularly in a matter of such great public interest and controversy. Surely Congress has at least equal authority to decide what to do with the photographs. Moreover, the press may have the right to obtain and publish these highly relevant items of evidence as part of its duty to inform the public. Some media will surely challenge the president's decision, and if they do I hope they win. The great Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis taught us nearly a century ago that "sunlight is the best disinfectant." The remaining evidence of how Bin Laden was killed -- the photographs and the results of any forensic tests that may have been hastily performed -- should be exposed to the sunlight of publication. Only then will the virus of doubt be disinfected.

Demands for the photographic evidence are not only coming from one side of the political aisle or another, it is coming from both, with arguments against the release showing the same.

Side note: Polls are showing that the bounce in Obama's approval numbers directly following the news of bin Laden's death are already starting (One week, two days later) to head back down, despite the fact that historic bounces from major events averaged President's a 13 percent spike that should have lasted an average of 22 weeks.

Currently, 50% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president while 39% disapprove. In a May 2 poll by the Pew Research Center and The Washington Post, 56% approved while 38% disapproved. Obama’s current job rating represents an improvement from early April, when 47% approved of his job performance and nearly as many (45%) disapproved.

That was Pew, if you look at the averages over at RCP that lists most of the polls conducted, then averages out approval disapproval, Obama is only at 51.6 percent approval just nine days after the initial announcement of bin Laden's death.

Is there any doubt in anyone other than obamabot's minds that the White House's ever changing stories, refusal to release visual closure to the public, Obama's arrogance in thinking he and he alone should decide what the public should and shouldn't be allowed to see and the bumbled handling of the whole aftermath by his administration, is one of the major reasons for his "bounce" to start dipping in less than 2 weeks as opposed to the averaged 22 weeks it was projected to last? (Another major reason being the economy)

If so, I have this bridge in Brooklyn I am looking to sell... email me, we will discuss a price.

.

Polls Show: Osama's Death Gives Obama Bounce And Drop In Ratings

Public Opinion Strategies has done calculations on previous President's "bumps" incurred after perceived successes and they conclude that according to historical data Barack Obama will see an average bump of 13 percent which will last for approximately 22 weeks from the killing of Osama bin Laden, figurehead leader of al-Qaeda which attacked the United States on 9/11/01.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation conducted a poll on Monday, May 2, 2011, one day after the news hit the world news that Osama bin Laden was killed in a raid.

The numbers confirm much of what Public Opinion Strategies estimated but according to the CNN poll, Americans are quite capable of separating issues and while Obama gets a seven point bounce on terrorism and Afghanistan since January, he actually has dropped three points regarding the economy and the deficit in the same time frame. --- Source: CNN/Opinion Research- Date conducted: 5/2/2011

But the poll indicates that the president's overall approval rating, now at 52 percent, is up just one point from a poll conducted Friday through Sunday; it is up four points from Obama's 48 percent approval rating in early April. All interviews in the poll taken this weekend were conducted before the announcement of bin Laden's death.

"While President Obama's rating on terrorism and on how he's handling of Afghanistan each went up seven points, his approval rating on the economy and the deficit are down three points in that same time span," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Remember that the economy is still the most important issue. When CNN last asked Americans to name their top issue last year, 52 percent said the economy was most important and only four percent chose terrorism, putting it seventh on the list."

Hotline On Call makes this point:

Meanwhile, the CNN poll ultimately shows mixed signals on Obama's 2012 re-election prospects. A slight majority of registered voters -- 51 percent -- say they will "probably" or "definitely" vote against Obama in 2012, while 46 percent of voters say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote for him -- virtually even with a Jan. CNN survey.

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post has also conducted an overnight poll which shows the same type of fluctuation in Obama's job approval and the separation in American's opinions about terrorism/Afghanistan and the economy.

Barack Obama’s job approval rating has jumped in the wake of bin Laden’s killing. In the one-day survey, 56% say they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president while 38% disapprove. Last month, Obama’s job rating was about evenly divided – 47% approved, 45% disapproved. Obama has gotten about the same boost in job approval as did former President Bush in the days after the U.S. military’s capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003. Following Saddam’s capture, Bush’s rating rose from 50% to 57%. (A more comprehensive survey will be conducted May 5-8 to follow up on these preliminary reactions to the death of bin Laden and Obama’s job performance.)

However, while Obama’s ratings for dealing with the situation in Afghanistan and the threat of terrorism have improved dramatically – by 16 points and 14 points, respectively, since January – opinions about his handling of the economy have not. Just 40% approve and 55% disapprove of his job performance on the economy, which is little changed from April.

The death of bin Laden is still the top of the news cycle with article after article covering almost every angle and discussions surrounding the articles on virtually every political blog.

LINKAGE for Readers:

Jim Treacher makes the excellent point of how liberals criticized (Under Bush) the same teams that they are now applauding (Under Obama)with his piece titled "Team Six: From Cheney's Secret Assassination Squad to Obama's Super-Awesome Cleanup Crew" at The Daily Caller.

John at Power Line shows the incredible hypocrisy of Nancy Pelosi, using her very own quotes in a piece with the headline "Compare and Contrast — Nancy Pelosi, press conference, September 7, 2006:- Nancy Pelosi, earlier today.

Amusing.

All I can express to this next The Politico piece is... WTF????

Headline "Was killing bin Laden legal?

Seriously? I mean, we all knew it was coming, but SERIOUSLY????

This next one I am adding for for my own amusement because hearing the pop, pop, pop, of liberal heads exploding across the blogisphere is highly amusing.

Fox Nation headlines with "Waterboarding, Which Obama Campaigned Against, Led to Bin Laden Kill."

Next point- As the birther issue should have taught Barack Obama, the longer one refuses to provide whatever is needed to nip conspiracy theories in the bud, the larger the group of people become that start either believing those theories or at least start doubting the denials and questioning the time it takes to provide proof to the contrary.

Media is reporting now that the White House is "discussing" providing photo and possibly video proof of Osama bin Laden's death.

They shouldn't wait too long because the "deathers" in and outside of America, are already starting to make noise since bin Ladens body was immediately disposed of in a sea burial and no proof of his death has been provided yet.

Make sure to head over to Andrew Malcolm's piece at LA Times' Top of the Ticket for a wonderful piece of snark titled "Osama bin Laden dead: Yes, SEALs were in on the raid, but aides hail Obama's office bravery."

Teaser:

According to another one of those White House briefings of reporters designed to suck up all available credit for good news, President Obama's homeland security advisor reveals that it was a really tense time in the air-conditioned White House as unidentified U.S. Navy SEALs closed in on the world's most wanted man after midnight a half a world away.

Read the whole thing.. gotta love Andrew.

Years ago, on this very blog, I made the point that while Osama bin Laden might have given the order for the attack on 9/11 against the United States of America, he was not part of the group of hijackers that actually killed thousands of people on U.S. soil, he was just a figurehead, a symbol of al-Qaeda.

I say the same thing for Barack Obama. He might have given the go-ahead order to take bin Laden out, but he had no part of the actual takedown and is just a symbol, a figurehead for the wonderful work our military and intelligence communities did and were doing since well before Obama took office.

ABC News headlines with "Osama Bin Laden's Death Picture Readied for Release."

That should keep readers busy reading for a while.

.

Americans Prefer Cutting Spending Over Raising Taxes To Reduce Deficit

Yet another poll, by Gallup, tell our politicians what Americans expect from them and how they prefer Washington deal with the overwhelming national deficit.

73 percent of national adults understand that spending too much on federal programs that are either not needed or wasteful is the primary cause for our $14 trillion-plus national debt.

Only 22 percent believe that not raising enough money via taxes is to blame for the deficit.




When respondents were asked how they would prefer Congress attempt to reduce the federal budget deficit, 20 percent said only with spending cuts and 28 percent responded mostly with spending cuts, totaling 48 percent that want Washington to focus on cutting spending.

Despite the far left's howling about raising taxes being the be-all end-all of our deficit problems, only nine percent prefer the deficit be reduced mostly with tax increases and a mere two percent believe the deficit problem can be handled using only tax increases, totaling 11 percent of national adults prefer for Washington to use raising taxes to bring down our debt.

37 percent believe that spending cuts and tax increases together should be used.

The major partisan distinctions in response to this question reflect the choice between mostly/only spending cuts versus the equal use of spending cuts and tax increases. Republicans are most likely to favor the former; Democrats, the latter. Independents' views are between these two extremes. Relatively few Americans of any partisan identification favor mostly or only using tax increases to reduce the deficit.

Americans have been clearly informed of the positions the two political parties in Washington hold, having witnessed the very public battle over the recent budget deal passed where Republicans fought hard to include as many spending cuts as possible and Democrats fighting tooth and nail to limit those cuts.

According to another Gallup poll, 48 percent of Americans favor Republicans on the issue of the federal deficit with only 36 favoring Democrats. (via CNBC)

The federal budget was the only issue in which respondents clearly preferred one party over the other, with 48 percent favoring Republicans and 36 percent Democrats.

The poll found that Americans favored Republicans by smaller margins on four other issues: Afghanistan, the U.S. economy, immigration and jobs. Democrats held a small advantage on handling healthcare, the poll found.

When faced with poll after poll showing Americans know where the problems lie and showing preference to how Americans want the deficit reductions handled, the far left fall back to the position of "Americans are too stupid to really understand the problem". The mere 11 percent of the population that want only or mostly taxes increases, in their minds, are the only ones who truly have the brains to understand.

This is evidenced by an Yglesias post, which seems to be the meme the far left use whenever public opinion puts them so far into the minority.

His title "The Public At Least Thinks It Wants Spending Cuts To Be A Very Large Part of Deficit Reduction."

Arrogance be thy name.

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll asking Americans about the direction of the country, 60 percent believe America to be on the wrong track going the wrong way with only 25 percent believing the opposite.

Rasmussen shows the number saying we are on the wrong track to 71 percent and CBS News/NY Times shows 70 percent say wrong track.

In 2010, midterms, Americans made a huge statement by giving the GOP a net gain in the House of Representatives which not only gave them control but was the largest net gain of seats seen in over 70 years.

Americans also handed Senate Republicans more seats, although Democrats still control the Senate (by a much smaller margin) and the White House.

During the budget recent budget battle, Speaker of the House, John Boehner, was quoted as saying "We control one-half of one-third of the government. We can't impose our will on another body. We can't impose our will on the Senate. All we can do is to fight for all of the spending cuts that we can get an agreement to."

While Congress controls the purse strings, no bill that passes the House of Representatives which includes massive spending cuts, as a plurality of the public prefers the deficit to be handled, can get to floor of the Senate because Harry Reid, a Democrat, is Senate majority leader and has the power to bring it to the floor and Democrats hold a small majority, so even if brought up, the GOP cannot get it passed.

If they did, the president, a Democrat himself, has the power to veto it.

This puts the choice directly into the hands of the American public in 2012. Are people like Yglesias correct in believing the Americans only "think" they know what they want, but don't "really mean" it?

I don't think so. I personally think Americans are smart. They understand the problems. They understand the solutions. Most importantly, they understand who is standing in the way of reaching those solutions.

In 2012, 23 Democratic Senate seats are in play and only 10 Republican held seats and the Democrat in the White House faces a reelection challenge.

Americans will have a clear choice of whether they wish to continue to see spending out of control or whether they want to see spending cuts without the massive battle over every dollar cut by a political party that seems to believe that spending more money than you have and continuing to borrow money is simply business as usual in Washington.

If they balanced their personal checkbooks in the same manner as they do Washington's, they would be paying more in overdraft fees to their banks than the whole budget itself.

.

Obama's Job Approval And Reelect Score Continues To Drop

Quinnipiac University provides the latest numbers and they continue to move downward after a slight reprieve from the midterm elections.

American voters disapprove 48 - 42 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing and say 50 - 41 percent he does not deserve to be re-elected in 2012, both all-time lows, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 - 46 percent job approval rating and a 45 - 47 percent split on the President's re-election in a March 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, President Obama gets 36 percent of the vote to 37 percent for an unnamed Republican challenger.

Democrats approve 80 - 13 percent of the job Obama is doing, but disapproval is 81 - 9 percent among Republicans and 50 - 39 percent among independent voters. Men disapprove 52 - 41 percent while women split 44 - 44 percent.

Quinnipiac isn't the only polling organization providing numbers that should disturb Barack Obama either.

Gallup provides it's own set of figures and while the numbers do not appear as bad as Quinnipiac's did, the pattern Gallup shows is probably even worse news for Obama than what is shown above.

Americans have grown increasingly less likely to view President Obama as a strong and decisive leader since he took office. Roughly half now believe this aptly describes, him compared with 60% a year ago and 73% in April 2009.

When the trend is looked at by Gallup, this is what they find:

Altogether, Obama's ratings on being a strong and decisive leader are down a total of 21 percentage points since taking office, compared with a 15-point decline on understanding Americans' daily problems and a 9-point decline in sharing their values. Obama's overall job approval rating declined 16 points over the same time period.

I've often said that polls change on a dime, they bounce as the news cycle runs from story to story, they drop just as easily and fast, but polls are excellent indicators of patterns and trends and the patterns being seen for Barack Obama canot be spun in any favorable light.

The longer he is president, with each and every crisis, every political showdown, every foreign policy decision, Obama continues to drop in each important category among all demographics and while the drop in numbers from his Democratic supporters are smaller than the drop among Independents and Republicans, the drop is still there and continuing to spiral downward.

Today the media will claim the recent drop stems from Obama's decisions on Libya, before that it was his handling of the budget, before that the tax issue, etc....

Media will always provide an easy scapegoat and excuses for the bad polling numbers of the moment, but rarely do they address the pattern being seen and what it means to Obama's reelection chances as well the overall discontent American voters are beginning to express about Barack Obama.



Patterns don't lie and these patterns leave the door wide open for a strong GOP presidential candidate to win in the 2012 presidential election and make Obama a one term president.

.

Gallup: 45% Would Vote To Reelect Obama, 45% Would Vote For Nameless Republican

Into his third year of presidency, Barack Obama finds himself behind where George Bush (both of them)was at a similar time in their presidencies, according to Gallup. At this time 45 percent of registered voters would support Obama's reelection bid with 45 percent saying they would vote for a generic Republican, meaning a nameless, faceless Republican ties Obama in polling for the 2012 presidential election.

In polling from October 2001 through January 2004, George W. Bush consistently led an unnamed Democratic opponent, although by a shrinking margin as his job approval rating descended from a post-9/11 reading of 87% to the 50s and 60s. In February 2003, the point in Bush's presidency comparable to Obama's presidency today, Bush beat a generic Democrat among registered voters by 47% to 39%.

The major issues that will come into play for the 2012 presidential election will be jobs and the unemployment rate, the economy and as November 2010 midterms showed by exit polling and commentary, government spending and the federal deficit will surely come into play behind jobs and economy.

Unemployment:

For unemployment, the consensus forecast was 9.3 percent for 2011 and 8.6 percent for 2012. The 10 most pessimistic averaged 9 percent, and the 10 most upbeat averaged 8.2 percent.

The unemployment rate has never averaged above 8 percent during a presidential election year, according to Labor Department data stretching back to 1948. (Source)

As I mention in all the unemployment rate posts, the Department of Labor does not count millions that are able and want to work but do not seek work in the 4 weeks prior to their reports, with those numbers included, unemployment and/or underemployment is much higher than the national official numbers show.

The “U-6” rate, an alternative measure of labor underutilization that adds up rates of unemployment—those working part-time but seeking full-time work as well as those who have given up looking—came in at 16.1 percent, down from 16.7 percent in December and 17 percent in October and November.

In January of last year the U-6 rate was 18 percent. Though it is down 2 points in a year, it is still about twice the normal rate. While largely unpublicized, this rate is probably a better measurement of the kind of unemployment and underemployment that affects many families and drives their attitudes about the economy. (Source)

The official number is the one heard most often and reported on, but the U-6 is what people feel at home, especially those unemployed or who have family members that are unemployed.

Spending cuts/Deficit:

Obama's highly criticized (from both sides of the aisle) budget proposal will bring the deficit up to $1.65 trillion for 2011 and included some spending cuts but still has the government spending more than it brings in.

As ABC news pointed out, "At no point in the president’s 10-year projection would the U.S. government spend less than it's taking in."

To spend more than you bring in, you have to borrow and we pay interest on what we borrow.

According to Wapo, "Interest payments on the national debt will quadruple in the next decade and every man, woman and child in the United States will be paying more than $2,500 a year to cover for the nation's past profligacy, according to figures in President Obama's new budget plan. "

Recent polling shows 55 percent of American voters do not think it included enough spending cuts.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters say they have been following recent news stories about the president’s 2012 budget which was made public on Monday. That includes 43% who say they have been following Very Closely.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans and 59% of unaffiliated voters say the president’s proposed budget cuts too little. A plurality (49%) of Democrats says the planned cuts are about right.

Conservatives overwhelmingly think Obama’s budget cuts too little, and most say the same of planned GOP spending cuts. The majority of liberals say the president’s proposed cuts are about right but say planned Republican budget cutting is too much.

Republicans have countered Obama's budget with spending cuts of their own to include $61 billion from 2010 levels and about $100 billion from the amount Obama requested, but never received, for this year. Obama has threatened to veto that plan.

40 percent of voters, according to the same poll, do not think the GOP's proposed spending cuts go far enough either.

By a 57 percent to 28 percent margin voters believe that cutting government spending would do more to create jobs than building a high-speed rail network which is one of the president’s proposals.

While polling this far out from the 2012 elections cannot predict what the outcome will be, only circumstances closer to the election can do that, the fact that Obama is only tied with a nameless, faceless Republican in his third year, does not bode well for him considering his own 2012 projections for unemployment and his predilection for spending more than we take in and cutting less than American voters want.

Polling also is a good indicator of patterns and according to the linked Gallup poll at the beginning of this post, in February of 2010, 44 percent of voters supported Obama's reelection bid with only 42 percent supporting an unnamed Republican. February 2011 the split is 45/45.

Andrew Malcolm from LA Times' Top of the Ticket, sums it up nicely:

The GOP doesn't even need a frontrunner to catch the incumbent of the most powerful political office in the world. No wonder Obama's bringing fresh blood into the White House and shipping out aides to kick-start the billion-dollar campaign back in Chicago.

A new Gallup Poll finds Obama a little worse off in that generic presidential ballot category this year than he was last year at this time.

One last set of numbers to keep our eyes on, which personally I believe will greatly impact Obama's reelection chances.

Direction of the country:

On average, from all polls conducted gauging the mood of the country on whether they think the U.S. is on the right track or heading in the wrong direction, show a majority (60 percent) believing America is on the wrong track.

CBS News/NY Times- 64 percent say wrong track, 32 percent say right direction.

Rasmussen Reports- 64 percent say wrong track, 31 percent say right direction.

ABC News/Washington Post- 60 percent say wrong track, 38 percent say right direction.

Reuters/Ipsos- 57 percent say wrong track, 38 percent say right direction.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal- 56 percent say wrong track, 35 percent say right direction.

If Obama cannot make a dent in those numbers, his reelection chances will decrease.

Conservatives need think long and hard about who they choose to run against Obama in 2012. They need to decide what is a priority in their eyes and what is not and choose accordingly. If the polling patterns continue along the same lines as they have been for the last year, the wrong candidate choice could hand Barack Obama a second term.

.