Polls: High Obama Disapproval, Party Trust and Taxes Vs Spending Cuts

Multiple polls from Rasmussen over the weekend show that the GOP has gained the trust on economic issue over Democrats by a 10 percent margin as well as being trusted more on 9 out of ten issues presented to likely voters, Barack Obama is showing the highest level of Strong Disapproval since last November and the majority of voters have more fear the debt deal being negotiated in Washington will raise taxes too much and cut spending too little.

Rasmussen- Trust on issues

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 45% trust Republicans more when it comes to handling economic issues, while 35% put more trust in Democrats. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on nine of those 10 issues. In May, Republicans led on just six issues after being trusted more on all 10 in early January. Two years ago Democrats were trusted more than Republicans on most issues. Still, there are several issues that the parties are close on in terms of trust.

Health care, which voters rank second behind the economy in terms of importance, is an issue the GOP holds a tight 46% to 43% advantage on. Before President Obama was elected, Democrats had a huge advantage on this issue. During Election 2010, the advantage switched to the GOP. In May, the parties were essentially tied.

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Taxes are a big part of the debt ceiling debate, and voters trust Republicans more than Democrats by a 46% to 40% margin on that issue.

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The one issue Democrats do hold an advantage in trust on is education, 42% to 38%. Nineteen percent (19%) aren’t sure which party they trust more, however.

The parties are nearly tied on the issue of Social Security, with Republicans holding a statistically insignificant 42% to 40% lead. In May, Democrats barely edged the GOP on this issue.

Republicans hold a slight 38% to 35% edge in the area of government ethics and corruption, a reversal from the modest lead Democrats held in May. But 27% of voters don’t know who to trust more on this issue.

On immigration, Republicans hold a sizable 47% to 33% advantage, with 21% of voters are undecided.

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As is always the case, Republicans hold the trust advantage when it comes to national security and the War on Terror and the handling of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Rasmussen- Taxes and spending cuts

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 62% of Likely U.S. Voters are worried more that Congress and President Obama will raise taxes too much rather than too little in any deal to end the debt ceiling debate. Just 26% fear they’ll raise taxes too little. Twelve percent (12%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Similarly, 56% worry that Congress and the president will cut spending too little in the final debt ceiling deal, while only 25% are concerned that they will cut spending too much. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided.

Rasmussen- Obama Approval/Disapproval

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21 (see trends).

That’s the highest level of Strong Disapproval since last November.

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Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Once again I will point out that polling, especially this far away from the presidential election, is simply a snapshot of how voters feel at the time and many things can happen to turn the numbers around. At this stage polling is best used to see patterns and trends which a change from one week from another or a bounce stemming from a certain event generally does not alter those patterns or trends in the long run.

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Majority Of Americans Not In Favor Of Obama’s Illegal Alien Nation

First the numbers, via Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters favor a cutoff of federal funds to so-called sanctuary cities. Just 28% are opposed and 13% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

However, only 29% of voters think Congress is even somewhat likely to agree to cut off funds to cities that provide sanctuary for illegal immigrants. Twice as many, 55% say Congress is unlikely to take such an action. Those figures include 9% who say Congress is Very Likely to act and 11% who say action is Not At All Likely. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.

Regardless of Congressional action, 58% of voters think the U.S. Justice Department should take legal action against cities that provide sanctuary for illegal immigrants. Twenty-six percent (26%) are opposed to having the Justice Department prosecute sanctuary cities and 16% are not sure. Those figures have changed little since last summer.

As Obama is in Texas harping on "the broken immigration system", polling shows that the majority of Americans want something done about Sanctuary cities, to the point of wanting them punished for refusing to obey the law.

What is the Obama administration doing to those that are flaunting their refusal?

Not a thing.

Liberal officials in both Illinois and San Francisco last week announced that they will no longer participate in the the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) program, preferring instead to allow criminal illegal aliens to roam the streets. While the White House has not responded to the immigration retreat, some in Congress want action. “The Obama administration has said that states and localities cannot opt out of Secure Communities, so the administration should make sure that all states comply with this mandatory program,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Lamar Smith told me Monday.

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Officially, DHS and ICE insist that they are strong supporters of the program. “Secure Communities is a critical part of transforming our approach to immigration enforcement by focusing our resources on those in our country illegally, who have also broken criminal laws,” said ICE Public Affairs Director Brian Hale. And while DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano has said that local states and cities do not have the right to opt out of the program, she has not done anything to enforce the requirement that lawbreaking illegals be held until ICE can take custody.

Unofficially, the Obama administration will not force states or cities to adhere to the federal program. Illinois and San Francisco can let their criminal illegals out of jail immediately after booking, without checking their fingerprints with the DHS database, and there are no consequences from Washington.

More from Rasmussen:

Just 17% support the creation of sanctuary cities in which some illegal immigrants are not turned over to federal immigration authorities unless they are convicted of committing a felony crime. Sixty-five percent (65%) oppose the establishment of sanctuary cities. Nearly one-in-five voters (18%) are undecided about them. This marks little change from October 2009.

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A number of U.S. cities, ranging from big ones like Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City to smaller ones like Cambridge, Massachusetts; Austin, Texas and Albuquerque, New Mexico, have either declared themselves sanctuary cities or refuse to work with federal immigration authorities as police department policy.

Once again, Barack Obama is refusing to enforce the laws of the country when the majority of voters want those laws enforced, yet he dares give speeches talking about "the broken system" and suggests amnesty for illegals?

Enforce the laws on the books, punish those refusing to obey the laws instead of states like AZ that are trying to deal with the system breakdown and the Obama administration's incompetence and unwillingness to protect our borders and then and only then talk about "reform".

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At least the captain of the Titanic tried to miss the iceberg. Congressional Democrats aimed right for it

The title is definitely the quote of the day and it was Scott Rasmussen that said it.

Via WSJ:

In the first week of January 2010, Rasmussen Reports showed Republicans with a nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. Scott Brown delivered a stunning upset in the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election a couple of weeks later.

In the last week of October 2010, Rasmussen Reports again showed Republicans with a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. And tomorrow Republicans will send more Republicans to Congress than at any time in the past 80 years.

This isn't a wave, it's a tidal shift—and we've seen it coming for a long time. Remarkably, there have been plenty of warning signs over the past two years, but Democratic leaders ignored them. At least the captain of the Titanic tried to miss the iceberg. Congressional Democrats aimed right for it.

'Nuff said.

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Democrat Toast

When the Gallup Poll says the Democrats are toast come November, you can believe it because even their registered voter generic congressional ballot results are usually below what other pollsters show for the Republicans. Today Gallup has the Republicans up by 10, the highest ever recorded since 1950. On July 19th, Gallup had the Democrats up by 6 when no other pollster had the Democrats up at all. Obviously Gallup has made some adjustments to how they weight their samples. Rasmussen has had the Republicans up by as much as 12 and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Democrat firm, has had the Republicans up as much as 11. The previous high for Gallup was 7 for the Republicans in 1994 and that was using a likely voter sample rather than a registered voter sample. Had Gallup used a likely voter sample, the results would be even higher for the Republicans because likely voter samples always favor Republicans more than registered voter samples because Republicans turn out to vote better than Democrats.

If a 7 point spread in 1994 gave the Republicans control of the House by 231 to 204 seats, what would a 10 point spread do? If you have been following our model adopted from Gallup, you already know the answer: the Republicans would control the House by a whopping 71 seat margin, 253 to 182. That last time the Republicans controlled the House by that big a margin was as a result of the 1928 election, some 82 years ago. The last time the Republicans gained more than 71 seats was not in 1994 (54 seats) or even in 1946 (55 seats), it was in 1938 (81 seats). Thus a 75 seat gain would be the biggest in 72 years, but we have already pointed that out. At this point, it seems fair to say that the Democrats are not just toast, but burned toast.

All of this is merely a prelude to saying that we are adjusting our projections from a 67 seats picked up while losing 2 for a net gain of 65 to a whopping 80 seats picked up for a net gain of 78 seats. Thus our new projection is for a 256 to 179 seat House for the Republicans. Since the current House has the exact opposite of that, we are projecting a total flip over of the House giving the Republicans control by the exact same margin as the Democrats have now. Our reason for doing this is precisely because of what has been happening in the generic congressional ballot polls. This would require a 10.6 point margin in the likely voter generic congressional polls.

That average has been 10.5 lately even though today it is only 7.3 because Rasmussen has dropped down to 6 from 12 two weeks ago. The Gallup poll says that the latest Rasmussen poll is most likely an outlier poll and will return to the 9 point range next week. If you are interested in just which seats the Republicans will pick up, you will find that in our Marston Report. To give you an idea of what that means in the real world, it means the Republicans will have to defeat the likes of Bob Etheridge in NC-2, Ed Perlmutter in CO-2, Chellie Pingree in ME-1 and Bruce Braley in IA-1. The first two are rated by Real Clear Politics as leans D, but the last two are listed as likely D. If we cannot get those last two, the next two in our rankings are Phil Hare in IL-17 and Melissa Bean in IL-8 which RCP does list as leans D.

Gallup: Gop Takes 'Unprecedented' Lead On Generic Ballot

Gallup reports the GOP has taken what they call an "unprecedented" 10 point lead (51 percent to 41 percent) over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot, where the question of Republican or Democrat is asked without specific names.

More importantly, Republicans also hold a 25 point lead in enthusiasm among registered voters (50 percent to 25 percent).

Rasmussens latest findings on the Generic Congressional Ballot is the GOP ahead by six points.

Interestingly, there is no surprise that Democrats back their candidate by 83 percent and Republicans back theirs by 85 percent. The numbers to watch for are the Independents which break towards the Republicans by a 21 percent margin with 44 percent favoring Republicans and 23 favoring Democrats.

The difference between the Gallup and Rasmussen polling methods is Gallup used registered voters and Rasmussen used likely voters.

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